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Thread: Countdown to midterms

  1. #2821
    Politics.ie Member owedtojoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fir...l-sags-n918681

    Before someone comes aong and says "Minnesota is a Democratic state", please consider the following
    Trump came within 1% of taking it in 2016.

    But the margins of victory in all three races in these polls (Two Senate races and Governor) are miles above anything one would would expect.
    Al Franken's vacated senate seat was talked about even two months ago as a potential flip for GOP, now 15% behind.
    Similarly Governor would not have been seen as in any way safe, but now 15-17% lead.
    Klobucher, who I accept would always have been seen as safe leads by a stonking 30%

    I think these polls illustrate what I have been saying for months, the area of the country Trump won the election in, is now the area that he is most toxic in.
    His/GOP numbers across this whole region (rust belt/mid west) are simply miles away from 2016

    If Trump cannot win at least three from PA,Michigan,Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio, he has little or no chance of retention
    At present, he would lose the first four by big margins and probably the latter two as well
    Trump's "fall from grace" in the Rust Belt and in swing states like North Carolina and Florida has been spectacular.

    Still, Obama came back from a shellacking in 2010 to get re-elected in 2012. Trump must do the same, assuming the "blue wave" remains strong in November.

    It is a big ask because Obama still remained personally popular, Trump is not. However, the sitting President always has an advantage, so it is up to the Democrats to convert his personal unpopularity, and his unpopular policies like Trumpcare (= NoCare), into a winning coalition.
    "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Trump's "fall from grace" in the Rust Belt and in swing states like North Carolina and Florida has been spectacular.

    Still, Obama came back from a shellacking in 2010 to get re-elected in 2012. Trump must do the same, assuming the "blue wave" remains strong in November.

    It is a big ask because Obama still remained personally popular, Trump is not. However, the sitting President always has an advantage, so it is up to the Democrats to convert his personal unpopularity, and his unpopular policies like Trumpcare (= NoCare), into a winning coalition.
    2008-2010 versus 2016-2018 is about as different a landscape as you could possibly imagine
    Trump inherited a buoyant economy
    Obama inherited a hideous mess and the measures necessary to try to fix it would have still been acutely felt 2 years later, and invariably lead to losses.
    Look at FG in 2014 local elections, blasted, and FF scuts who had made the calamity, made gains.
    That's political life, short memories and people taking their anger out on those who have to administer the medicine of a disease caused by another party.

    In fact if FF were half as supposedly shrewd as people used to claim, they should have thrown the 2007 election.
    FG would now no longer even exist.

    Back to Trump, at face value he looks like he was lucky, inheriting a strong economy.
    But one that was already nearly 8 years into its cycle.
    If that cycle is coming to an end (and I am far from certain its is), he has little or no chance in 2020

  3. #2823
    Politics.ie Member owedtojoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    2008-2010 versus 2016-2018 is about as different a landscape as you could possibly imagine
    Trump inherited a buoyant economy
    Obama inherited a hideous mess and the measures necessary to try to fix it would have still been acutely felt 2 years later, and invariably lead to losses.
    Look at FG in 2014 local elections, blasted, and FF scuts who had made the calamity, made gains.
    That's political life, short memories and people taking their anger out on those who have to administer the medicine of a disease caused by another party.

    In fact if FF were half as supposedly shrewd as people used to claim, they should have thrown the 2007 election.
    FG would now no longer even exist.

    Back to Trump, at face value he looks like he was lucky, inheriting a strong economy.
    But one that was already nearly 8 years into its cycle.
    If that cycle is coming to an end (and I am far from certain its is), he has little or no chance in 2020
    Absolutely agree - Obama remained personally popular in spite of economic hardship.

    Trump remains personally unpopular in spite of (an apparent) economic boom.

    In a way, I am anticipating what pundits will say if Republicans lose the House - "normal" midterm disaffection from a sitting President, GOP not charged up sufficiently etc etc. The similarities of 2010 and 2018 are superficial, but you can bet that Dame Enda & Co will be highlighting them.

    The GOP were very confident they could repeat 2010 in 2012, but did not remove the President.

    IMHO, unseating a sitting President is never easy, but not impossible - better to prepare for a battle royale.
    "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume

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    Politics.ie Member President Bartlet's Avatar
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    The Dems need an extremely strong and vibrant cnadidate that will expose the Chump for the con and Bullsh1tter he is and they can start by changing their Congressional Leadership team - which to be honest should have happened in the aftermath of the 2016 election cycle

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    Politics.ie Member President Bartlet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Trump's "fall from grace" in the Rust Belt and in swing states like North Carolina and Florida has been spectacular.

    Still, Obama came back from a shellacking in 2010 to get re-elected in 2012. Trump must do the same, assuming the "blue wave" remains strong in November.

    It is a big ask because Obama still remained personally popular, Trump is not. However, the sitting President always has an advantage, so it is up to the Democrats to convert his personal unpopularity, and his unpopular policies like Trumpcare (= NoCare), into a winning coalition.
    True - but they also need the right and strong presidential candidate

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    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    "A great city is not to be confounded with a populous one." - Aristotle

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    Tulchin Research Memo - NY-27 Poll Findings 10-18 Final - Google Drive

    Uber Trump reamer Chris Collins now in a dead heat in NY 27th, one of the safest GOP House seats in the country.
    Trump won this district by almost 20% and Collins won election the same day by 32%

    Collins is facing almost certain jail for indictments relating to outrageously brazen insider trading.
    If he was a Dem, he wouldn't stand a chance, but most GOP think stuff like insider trading is fine, their current POTUS, I imagine, would believe it to be "smart"

    Collins it is charged, got an email from a pharmaceutical company of which he was a board member telling him a major drug trial had failed.
    He phoned his son (wait for it, from the White House) and told him to sell all their stock, thus avoiding the 90% fall in its price when this inside info was publicly released some hours later
    It is to me at least one of the most brazen and clear cut cases of insider trading, I have ever seen, and I will be astonished if him and his son don't get jail.

    Yet here we have almost 70% of GOP voters still backing him.
    Astonishing

    But this is the Trump cult in all its glory, you can do whatever you want and the cult will still back you.The more loyalty and subservience to Trump you have shown, the more you will eb forgiven, even for the most outrageous and criminal of antics.
    And Collins since day 1 has been grade A trump supporter and enforcer.

    On one level I am delighted the GOP is so corrupt and unethical to still stand by him, it gives the Dems a shot at a House seat they would't otherwise have a chance of winning, but it also shows the depths the GOP have sunk to under Trump in terms of acceptable behavior.
    Bottom line, this guy shouldn't be next nor near a House election ticket of either party right now.
    Last edited by Jack Walsh; 11th October 2018 at 08:00 PM.

  8. #2828
    Politics.ie Member toastedheretic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    Tulchin Research Memo - NY-27 Poll Findings 10-18 Final - Google Drive

    Uber Trump reamer Chris Collins now in a dead heat in NY 27th, one of the safest GOP House seats in the country.
    Trump won this district by almost 20% and Collins won election the same day by 32%

    Collins is facing almost certain jail for indictments relating to outrageously brazen insider trading.
    If he was a Dem, he wouldn't stand a chance, but most GOP think stuff like insider trading is fine, their current POTUS, I imagine, would believe it to be "smart"

    Collins it is charged, got an email from a pharmaceutical company of which he was a board member telling him a major drug trial had failed.
    He phoned his son (wait for it, from the White House) and told him to sell all their stock, thus avoiding the 90% fall in its price when this inside info was publicly released some hours later
    It is to me at least one of the most brazen and clear cut cases of insider trading, I have ever seen, and I will be astonished if him and his son don't get jail.

    Yet here we have almost 70% of GOP voters still backing him.
    Astonishing

    But this is the Trump cult in all its glory, you can do whatever you want and the cult will still back you.The more loyalty and subservience to Trump you have shown, the more you will eb forgiven, even for the most outrageous and criminal of antics.
    And Collins since day 1 has been grade A trump supporter and enforcer.

    On one level I am delighted the GOP is so corrupt and unethical to still stand by him, it gives the Dems a shot at a House seat they would't otherwise have a chance of winning, but it also shows the depths the GOP have sunk to under Trump in terms of acceptable behavior.
    Bottom line, this guy shouldn't be next nor near a House election ticket of either party right now.
    More than that Jack shows how bereft of talent the GOP now is, American conservatism is running out of gas all they've got left are the octagenarians in the seanate and the trumpian shysters and weirdos..
    Check out Max Boot on the PretB pod..

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

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    Politics.ie Member flavirostris's Avatar
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    Kanye has just embraced Trump in the Oval office. cue more leftwing autistic screeching.
    "Criticising the EU in Ireland in the 2010's is like criticising the Catholic Church in the 1950s. You run the risk of being lynched by brainwashed fanatics." - Volatire

  10. #2830
    Politics.ie Member owedtojoy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by President Bartlet View Post
    The Dems need an extremely strong and vibrant cnadidate that will expose the Chump for the con and Bullsh1tter he is and they can start by changing their Congressional Leadership team - which to be honest should have happened in the aftermath of the 2016 election cycle
    Not sure if I agree.

    To go after Trump would be letting him dictate the agenda ... in fact, he might become the agenda, as he became in 2016.

    I think Democrats must have a raft of sensible policies - Healthcare is an obvious one, the frozen incomes of the middle class is another - or why have the wealthiest 5% won all the benefits of the booming economy?. Others are immigration and guns.

    Of course, they need to attack the Trumpanista elite and its obvious corruption. Trump will no longer be an outsider running against Washington, in fact he and his cronies are the swamp. Stick it to them. If Democrats win the House, a few investigations into Wilbur Ross, Stinky Zinke and the EPA are will be interesting.
    "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume

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