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Thread: Gubernatorial elections 2018

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    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    Default Gubernatorial elections 2018

    Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election in Florida is also close. The state hasnt elected a Democrat for governor for 24 years. Latest polls indicate the state's Agricultural Commissioner, Adam Puttnam, who had been leading the race for the GOP nomination, may be losing ground for siding with the NRA against Florida's new law raising the age for assault weapons to 21. Trump supporter Rep. Ron DeSantis leads him 2%. It has been close between the two since December. The Democrat primary is a knife-edge between Andrew Gillum and Philip Levine. A February poll showed Puttnam beating Levin 40-32, but even with Gillum in two polls, and ahead in two others. Gwen Graham was ahead of them in some earlier polls but has dropped to 9% in latest Gravis poll from 18% in December.

    Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate dips in polls after supporting NRA | TheHill

    In California the GOP have an uphill battle but the states multiparty "jungle primary" system has the top two going forward regardless of party, and with 6 Dem candidates and divisions between the Clinton and Bernie wings, the latest poll has the GOP candidate second in the jungle primary. 2 polls linked to State AG Gavin Newsom (D) as well as a Dem poll by PPP has John Cox (R) gaining ground but still behind him on 14-6%. Newsom is the likely to make the final 2 as he's on 28%. Surprisingly a poll in March 2018 found that in a Newsom vs Cox matchup it would be 45-45, though its a Republican pollster called Smithson. He opposes capital punishment, which might appeal to liberals. However California recently rejected a proposal to end the death penalty 53.15% to 46.85% (though in practice its meaningless because the appeals take decades there). Noone has been executed in the state since 2006.


    NY is not competitive this time. Cuomo has two-to-one leads over all the potential Republican candidates. Likewise while we don't have polling, Hawaii is not considered competitive. In Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy was unpopular before Trump and as of February only has a 24% rating in the state, and has pushed controversial Sanctuary City policies. We have no polling yet, but Larry Sabato calls it a "toss up". Also hopefully for Republicans, the Dems in the state legislature are only 2% more popular than the GOP. Unfortunately for the GOP, Malloy is not running again this year.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 24th March 2018 at 05:05 AM.
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    In NY Cuomo is facing a serious primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon. The issues will be the rampant corruption in Cuomo's administration, his policies benefitting his big money campaign contributors, and his role in giving the Republicans control over the state Senate.

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    Cynthia Nixon is very likeable....

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    Politics.ie Member bormotello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meiriceánach View Post
    In NY Cuomo is facing a serious primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon. The issues will be the rampant corruption in Cuomo's administration, his policies benefitting his big money campaign contributors, and his role in giving the Republicans control over the state Senate.
    Cuomo fears Russian interference in governor’s race
    “Every country has the government it deserves.”
    Joseph De Maistre

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    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    Ironic given his party has been allowing Latin American election interference for years by refusing to accept voter ID to stop illegal voting.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meiriceánach View Post
    In NY Cuomo is facing a serious primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon. The issues will be the rampant corruption in Cuomo's administration, his policies benefitting his big money campaign contributors, and his role in giving the Republicans control over the state Senate.
    Cuomo has had something of a charmed run as Governor. He was first elected in 2010 in a bumper year for the GOP. However, the tea party stopped a credible candidate Rick Lazio and nominated tea party fruit cake Carl Paladino and Cuomo won in a landslide. This was on the heels of the Spitzer/Patterson years, Spitzer was caught with a prostitute and trying to structure cash withdrawals (to pay) to avoid reporting to the Government. His Lt Governor Patterson ascended to the Governorship when Spitzer resigned. Patterson could be frequently found partying in the Hamptons as the credit crisis exploded, often suffering from hoarseness there too. He wanted to run again but then President Obama urged him to and thus opening the door for Cuomo.

    Fast forward to 2014, another good year for the GOP and Cuomo faced a strong primary challenge from an unnkown college professor who took 33% of the vote without even mounting a serious campaign. Cuomos GOP opponent Rob Astorino was double crossed by NJ Governor Chris Christie (the national chair of the GOP Governors group), who had urged him to run and then abandoned him, giving him no funds, using the saying "we don't pay for lost causes and we don't invest in landslides". Christie wouldn't even cross the bridge (yes, that bridge) to do a fund raiser for him. Of course Bridgegate was exploding in 2014.

    Cynthia Nixon, of Sex in the City is a close friend and confidant of NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio and the hostility between Cuomo and DeBlasio is an open secret. She is unlikely to win but could create noise for Cuomo but in any event the GOP are struggling to recruit a good candidate in what is shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats.

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    Moderator NYCKY's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election in Florida is also close. The state hasnt elected a Democrat for governor for 24 years. Latest polls indicate the state's Agricultural Commissioner, Adam Puttnam, who had been leading the race for the GOP nomination, may be losing ground for siding with the NRA against Florida's new law raising the age for assault weapons to 21. Trump supporter Rep. Ron DeSantis leads him 2%. It has been close between the two since December. The Democrat primary is a knife-edge between Andrew Gillum and Philip Levine. A February poll showed Puttnam beating Levin 40-32, but even with Gillum in two polls, and ahead in two others. Gwen Graham was ahead of them in some earlier polls but has dropped to 9% in latest Gravis poll from 18% in December.

    Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate dips in polls after supporting NRA | TheHill

    In California the GOP have an uphill battle but the states multiparty "jungle primary" system has the top two going forward regardless of party, and with 6 Dem candidates and divisions between the Clinton and Bernie wings, the latest poll has the GOP candidate second in the jungle primary. 2 polls linked to State AG Gavin Newsom (D) as well as a Dem poll by PPP has John Cox (R) gaining ground but still behind him on 14-6%. Newsom is the likely to make the final 2 as he's on 28%. Surprisingly a poll in March 2018 found that in a Newsom vs Cox matchup it would be 45-45, though its a Republican pollster called Smithson. He opposes capital punishment, which might appeal to liberals. However California recently rejected a proposal to end the death penalty 53.15% to 46.85% (though in practice its meaningless because the appeals take decades there). Noone has been executed in the state since 2006.


    NY is not competitive this time. Cuomo has two-to-one leads over all the potential Republican candidates. Likewise while we don't have polling, Hawaii is not considered competitive. In Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy was unpopular before Trump and as of February only has a 24% rating in the state, and has pushed controversial Sanctuary City policies. We have no polling yet, but Larry Sabato calls it a "toss up". Also hopefully for Republicans, the Dems in the state legislature are only 2% more popular than the GOP. Unfortunately for the GOP, Malloy is not running again this year.
    Right now, the likely flips from R to D, are Illinois, New Mexico and Maine, others like Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut and Michigan are seen as toss ups. The Democrats should pick up at least a few Governors mansions, given that it's shaping up to be a good year and that they are at their lowest level in decades in terms of Governorships.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCKY View Post
    Right now, the likely flips from R to D, are Illinois, New Mexico and Maine, others like Colorado, Nevada, Connecticut and Michigan are seen as toss ups. The Democrats should pick up at least a few Governors mansions, given that it's shaping up to be a good year and that they are at their lowest level in decades in terms of Governorships.
    Do you expect the GOP to gain anything from the Trump economic boom?

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    GOP candidate ex Senator Mike DeWine ahead of Richard Cordray (D) 47-39 in latest poll. If Dennis Kucinich is the candidate (he who sometimes appears on Russia Today and is an ex Congressman), its 51-38. Cordray and Kucinich are level on 21-21 in latest poll for Dem primary, and DeWine is a good bit ahead of Mary Taylor for the GOP nomination.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_g...2018#Polling_3
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    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    Arkansas governors race strong for GOP. The sitting governor has 39% lead. Gubernatorial races are important for redistricting.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rson-6408.html
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