Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 11 of 11 FirstFirst ... 7891011
Results 101 to 105 of 105

Thread: IMF - World economy at risk of another financial crash

  1. #101
    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    11,904
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Reading it now.

    It's a study of the bleedin' obvious. Consider such gems as:

    There was a doubling in the number of families who had difficulty making ends meet between the time the child was 9 months old in 2008/09 and the time the child was 5 years old in 2013 (from 12% to 25%). The figure had dropped to 12% by 2017-18 when the Study Child was 9.
    Wow! Findings in line with decline and recovery! Who would have guessed?

    Levels of financial stress in the families of 9-year-olds were much higher in one-parent families than two-parent families (27% vs. 10% had difficulties making ends meet).
    Well, that is truly amazing!

    Children in one-parent families were the most likely to live in households with low levels of income and maternal education. They were twice as likely as those in two-parent families to have mothers in the lowest education category (18% vs. 9%) and were nearly three times as likely to be in the lowest family income group (43% vs. 15%).
    Again, truly insightful!

    I'm so glad my tax Euros go to fund research and analysis of this quality.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

  2. #102

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Darren J. Prior View Post
    Can anybody explain to me if the stock market collapses how that will effect most people who do not have shares- is it basically a case that interest rates will rise and that will be the biggest blow? All of these companies big and small who have taken on enormous debt in the last decade should be let burnt as far as I am concerned if it comes to it particularly if the alternative is that the rest of us who do not have shares or have not taken on huge debt would suffer big consquences.
    Economy works on CONFIDENCE, remove that and people stop doing things.

    A single Share price collpasing really is no big thing as happens all the time, 60% of them then whole market collpases and people sell and move money into safe options like Gold.

    Performance of share price has zero impact on ability of a company to continue its day to day existence provided company has not got mega debt that banks start to become worried about whether they will be paid.

    Example use an Airline................... owes £2 billion, worth £14 billion on stock exchange, share price £14 where was £25 1 year ago, has cash of £0.5 billion if required and its debt is @ 0.5% over 10 years and it makes £1.2 billion in profit.
    Issued share capital of £500 million. Doesn't pay an annual dividend.

    Now generates positive cash of £500 million, needs to repay £200 million in loan and £10 million in Int per year.............. no reason to call in loans as they are serviced.
    What it can do is buy back shares and pay a special (not guaranteed) dividend per year........... shares become worth more.

    Key point is 1.) can service debt 2.) has enough cash to cope with market downturn 3.) can reduce costs easily to survive.
    In event of closing company the company would only need to pay the value of issued share capital (£500m not share price) to shareholders.

    Basically as long as a company is making profit, generating positive cash flow, had manageable debt then can survive a downturn.

  3. #103

    Default

    Ok so Stock market collapses ................... big impact is Pension funds, shareholdings etc as magically your pension that was worth £300,000 is now worth £75,000. No issue if you are 39 and 25 years to retirement but if 65 and retiring may be an issue.

    Market is flooded with debt that companys cannot service and Private equity / Hedge Funds etc have bought up loads of businesses, borrowed and cut costs (asset stripped) to justify investment. Problem now is there is not much more cost it can take out.

    Interest rates going up will not help as many companys will head to the wall, additionally burden will be on Mortgage holders, unsecured debt and others................ where they are over leveraged (borrowed).

    Problem since 2008 is low / no inflation so prices have not gone up massively and with that inflation it would reduce value of debt assumming no new debt.

    Now the GOOD NEWS.............. in 2008 when market collapsed I was very keen to point out that
    1.) continue to pay your mortgage
    2.) pay down debt (secured / unsecured) that ultimately you would not lose out subject to having kept job / income................... even a lower income.
    Amazingly those who did that have benefitted as individual debt is way less than 2008 and country has paid off billions per year of debt. Think has dropped from €144 billion to €85 billion, CSO publish the stats.

    Due another correction and that is because Govt debt is unsustainable................ UK 90% of GDP / US 106% etc etc.
    Ultimately public spending with have to drop considerably.

  4. #104
    Politics.ie Member Darren J. Prior's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Caisleán Cnucha / Castleknock
    Posts
    9,232
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    It seems very presumptuous to me of Fine Gael repeatedly saying that the Irish economy is sustainable (e.g I remember Leo Varadkar saying that the decision in the last budget to increase welfare by €5 a week would not be reversed and the decision was sustainable) when we are so dependent on corporation tax.
    Blog | Youtube | Mixcloud | Podchraoltaí Gaeilge Near FM |
    #Think32 #Éire32 #Gaeilge #FreeEducation #PublicHealth #IRLdev #GlobalHealth #GlobalDev

  5. #105

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Darren J. Prior View Post
    It seems very presumptuous to me of Fine Gael repeatedly saying that the Irish economy is sustainable (e.g I remember Leo Varadkar saying that the decision in the last budget to increase welfare by €5 a week would not be reversed and the decision was sustainable) when we are so dependent on corporation tax.
    Welfare spending in Economy is not sustainable, neither are Public sector wages and the inefficiencies in the Health service........
    problem is ALL are huge vote losers and unless world economy fell into a 1929 style depression with a Govt of National Unity they will never be tackled.

    Of €50 Billion in receipts, €8.2 Billion was in CT and some of that relates to tax laundering.

    https://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-conten...ion-report.pdf

    Not sustainable in any way shape or form.

Page 11 of 11 FirstFirst ... 7891011

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •