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Thread: Budget 2019 - an election budget or a genuine step in the right direction?

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    Politics.ie Member Disillusioned democrat's Avatar
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    Default Budget 2019 - an election budget or a genuine step in the right direction?

    Tomorrow will see the unveiling of the 2019 budget - the last covered by the FF Confidence and Supply arrangement and the first in a decade where there's a palpable sense of having actually turned a corner.

    It could be a FG election budget - some believe they've been on an election footing for a few months now, or it could be a budget that delivers enough to FF to encourage them to extend the C&S agreement letting the FG government get to the end of their term.

    In parallel it could be a feckless budget to plough more money into the private sector services used more and more by the neocon FG to ensure an endless supply of tax payers money into REITs, private clinics, etc. or it could be a prudent one - building assets and squirreling away some funds for the inevitable rainy day.

    What are your predictions before the event and assessment afterwards?
    The more things change....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Disillusioned democrat View Post
    Tomorrow will see the unveiling of the 2019 budget - the last covered by the FF Confidence and Supply arrangement and the first in a decade where there's a palpable sense of having actually turned a corner.

    It could be a FG election budget - some believe they've been on an election footing for a few months now, or it could be a budget that delivers enough to FF to encourage them to extend the C&S agreement letting the FG government get to the end of their term.

    In parallel it could be a feckless budget to plough more money into the private sector services used more and more by the neocon FG to ensure an endless supply of tax payers money into REITs, private clinics, etc. or it could be a prudent one - building assets and squirreling away some funds for the inevitable rainy day.

    What are your predictions before the event and assessment afterwards?
    The worst thing about this budget is the €700m required for for the overrun in health service. In normal organisations the budget is a fixed amount of money you have to spend.

    In the hse the budget is whatever you actually spend, regardless. No incentive to save money on anything, or introduce efficiencies. A public service managers heaven.

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    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uganda View Post
    In the hse the budget is whatever you actually spend, regardless. No incentive to save money on anything, or introduce efficiencies. A public service managers heaven.
    The fact that they cannot identify a specific cause for the overrun means they can't fix the problem
    Beer is proof that God loves us - Benjamin Franklin

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    If the government told the HSE to cut spending, the axe would fall immediately on patients, especially the most vulnerable ones. The management will not let the axe fall on management.

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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roll_On View Post
    If the government told the HSE to cut spending, the axe would fall immediately on patients, especially the most vulnerable ones. The management will not let the axe fall on management.
    HSE needs to be taken apart from root to branch, ideally by someone who has designed and run a modern health system.

    In order to do that, you need political cover to
    (a) face down the unions such that the required reforms are successfully implemented and
    (b) face down the electorate such that the 'I want a hospital at the end of me road' brigade (which is a very large and vocal constituency) are silenced, or at the very least fully informed as to why the changes are necessary and what long-term benefits they will bring.

    Until the above happens, health will continue to be a high cost, poor outcome money pit. It's not very likely to happen with our current political arithmetic.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Also, looking at the 2019 budget in isolation is both simplistic and myopic. You need to look at multi-year time horizons here.

    The sound and fury (99% of it pre-rehearsed) around the budget is just media filler. Ignore it and focus on where budgetary policy has taken us and, more importantly, will take us.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member libertarian-right's Avatar
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    Reactionary budget incoming.

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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by libertarian-right View Post
    Reactionary budget incoming.
    What does one of those look like?
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member libertarian-right's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarshBuzz View Post
    What does one of those look like?
    We'll see when it comes to the housing section of the budget, they just can't stop trying to pump in more gas, plus the linked up taxes to pay for the housing/health measures. Social welfare hikes in a time of high growth and near full employment....got to keep buying the votes for the looming election post Brexit. Granny flat idea is completely reactionary.

    FG sleepwalk straight into a housing/health crisis that was so obviously coming down the line when they got into power in 2011. 7 years later we find our government trying their best to bring us back to the Celtic Tiger years. Overspending in health while spending more than in the previous FF bubble era.

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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by libertarian-right View Post
    We'll see when it comes to the housing section of the budget, they just can't stop trying to pump in more gas, plus the linked up taxes to pay for the housing/health measures. Social welfare hikes in a time of high growth and near full employment....got to keep buying the votes for the looming election post Brexit. Granny flat idea is completely reactionary.

    FG sleepwalk straight into a housing/health crisis that was so obviously coming down the line when they got into power in 2011. 7 years later we find our government trying their best to bring us back to the Celtic Tiger years. Overspending in health while spending more than in the previous FF bubble era.
    Your rhetoric above doesn't match the reality though - the budget is a balanced one.

    You seem to be describing something completely irresponsible such as what the Republicans are doing in the US. Whereas the government here are pretty much continuing along the agreed path back to fiscal health that was agreed with the Troika.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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