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Thread: Wexford: Call the next GE Results

  1. #91

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    On reflection, I can't see Wallace losing out.
    Last week Wallace took quarter page ads in the 4 local editions of the People promoting his meeting in Whites Hotel at 8pm last Friday night. There was no sign of Wallace by 8pm and there was hardly 10 people in the room. His aide was furiously on the phone and eventually he showed up.
    I presume it was the Toy Show that many of his voters preferred to watch rather than a toy politician spinning his pro Putin rubbish on Yemen, whistle blowing and NAMA.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by the secretary View Post
    Don't count Casey in race yet.
    I will believe it when i see it.
    They will move heaven and earth to get Mac Lochlainn elected even though he ain't too popular
    Why isnít Mac Lochlainn popular ??

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibee View Post
    Why isnít Mac Lochlainn popular ??
    Too left-liberal for a very conservative area (Inishowen voted 2/1 No in the abortion referendum) and I'm guessing his ethnic background is an issue for some.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by automaticforthepeople View Post
    Last week Wallace took quarter page ads in the 4 local editions of the People promoting his meeting in Whites Hotel at 8pm last Friday night. There was no sign of Wallace by 8pm and there was hardly 10 people in the room. His aide was furiously on the phone and eventually he showed up.
    I presume it was the Toy Show that many of his voters preferred to watch rather than a toy politician spinning his pro Putin rubbish on Yemen, whistle blowing and NAMA.
    Parts of Wexford have serious problems with lawlessness.
    New Ross, Enniscorthy,Gorey and Bunclody come to mind.
    Much of it is Traveller and Immigrant related.
    North Wexford is terrorised with the roaming gangs.
    Wallace loves everyone especially immigrants so his base are pissed.
    But his stance on abortion should get him elected.
    But he will have to pay his campaigners.
    That we remember is not what actually happened, not history, but those hackneyed impressions they tried to hammer into our memories by constant repetition.

  5. #95
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    Think Wallace and Kehoe could be in danger---hard to know who might replace them

  6. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by loner View Post
    Think Wallace and Kehoe could be in danger---hard to know who might replace them
    Mythen and FG's woman from Ross who fronts up the trucking industry.

  7. #97
    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

    FG
    Max: 66
    Min: 51

    FF
    Max: 52
    Min 41

    SF
    Max 25
    Min 22

    Lab
    Max: 8
    Min:3

    PBP
    Max: 3
    Min: 1

    Sol
    Max: 2
    Min: 1

    SD
    Max: 4
    Min: 3

    Green
    Max: 2
    Min: 0

    Indos/others
    Max: 21
    Min: 16
    Let us consider the Serapeum of Alexandria.

  8. #98

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

    FG
    Max: 66
    Min: 51

    FF
    Max: 52
    Min 41

    SF
    Max 25
    Min 22

    Lab
    Max: 8
    Min:3

    PBP
    Max: 3
    Min: 1

    Sol
    Max: 2
    Min: 1

    SD
    Max: 4
    Min: 3

    Green
    Max: 2
    Min: 0

    Indos/others
    Max: 21
    Min: 16
    This is not really relevant. Using national polls to project onto a constituency where perhaps just 30 people have been questioned carries dangers in forecasting outcomes when we could be as close as 2 months from polling or as far as 18 months off polling day.

  9. #99
    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by automaticforthepeople View Post
    This is not really relevant. Using national polls to project onto a constituency where perhaps just 30 people have been questioned carries dangers in forecasting outcomes when we could be as close as 2 months from polling or as far as 18 months off polling day.
    I am not using polls. It's an amalgam of local knowledge on the 45 constituency threads.
    Let us consider the Serapeum of Alexandria.

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