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Thread: Dublin Fingal: Call the next GE results.

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    Default Dublin Fingal: Call the next GE results.

    I think this is generally predictable.

    Current TDs

    Darragh O'Brien (FF)
    Clare Daly (I4C)
    Louise O'Reilly (SF)
    Brendan Ryan (Lab)
    Alan Farrell (FG)

    https://www.electionsireland.org/res...=2016&cons=280

    My sense is that there will be no change. The first three will easily hold on, FG will definitely win a seat, probably Farrell again and given Ryan held on in 2016 I'd imagine he's in with a reasonable shout again but he's broadly anonymous at constituency and national level.

    The main other contenders are Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) and James Reilly (FG). Lee has pushed her self quite a bit and is a regular enough feature on the Late Debate and the Tonight Show but that reflects the paucity of those programmes rather than any momentum behind her! Her and O'Brien don't exactly get on but she could push for a seat if FF got a bounce in the polls.

    Reilly is doing a bit on the ground but I think his time has passed, it must be to his eternal shame that Farrell gets elected ahead of him!

    There's no other serious contenders from what I can see.

    The Greens will stand but they are a long way from the heady days of Trevor Sargent.

    The Soc Dems are standing Tracey Carey but she's not in the running.

    The SP/Solidarity may stand but their candidate from 2016 has effectively disappeared.

    PBPA have nothing on the ground but they may stand a candidate which seems to be their strategy around the country.

    So I think it will be no change but Labour could lose to a second FF or FG.
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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Thanks for this.

    Just linking this to the main thread where I plan to amalgamate all the constituency predictions to come up with our own overall GE seat count prediction.

    Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hitchcock View Post
    I think this is generally predictable.

    Current TDs

    Darragh O'Brien (FF)
    Clare Daly (I4C)
    Louise O'Reilly (SF)
    Brendan Ryan (Lab)
    Alan Farrell (FG)

    https://www.electionsireland.org/res...=2016&cons=280

    My sense is that there will be no change. The first three will easily hold on, FG will definitely win a seat, probably Farrell again and given Ryan held on in 2016 I'd imagine he's in with a reasonable shout again but he's broadly anonymous at constituency and national level.

    The main other contenders are Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee (FF) and James Reilly (FG). Lee has pushed her self quite a bit and is a regular enough feature on the Late Debate and the Tonight Show but that reflects the paucity of those programmes rather than any momentum behind her! Her and O'Brien don't exactly get on but she could push for a seat if FF got a bounce in the polls.

    Reilly is doing a bit on the ground but I think his time has passed, it must be to his eternal shame that Farrell gets elected ahead of him!

    There's no other serious contenders from what I can see.

    The Greens will stand but they are a long way from the heady days of Trevor Sargent.

    The Soc Dems are standing Tracey Carey but she's not in the running.

    The SP/Solidarity may stand but their candidate from 2016 has effectively disappeared.

    PBPA have nothing on the ground but they may stand a candidate which seems to be their strategy around the country.

    So I think it will be no change but Labour could lose to a second FF or FG.
    If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
    Ryan will hold his seat.
    A great man for getting people council houses, like his brother was before him....
    Useless on the national stage.
    FFG. Keeping the Axis of Corruption intact!

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    Politics.ie Member Darren J. Prior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fr. Ted Crilly View Post
    A great man for getting people council houses, like his brother was before him....
    As far as I know, them days are gone.
    Blog | Youtube | Mixcloud | Podchraoltaí Gaeilge Near FM |
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    If Labour hold here, they'll be having a better GE than generally expected.
    He's by no means certain and he's vulnerable to FG/FF second candidates but I think he'll hold on.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darren J. Prior View Post
    As far as I know, them days are gone.
    No chance.
    A relation of my wife, from 'that side of the family' if you know what I mean, got a 3 bed house in a private estate in Rush, Co. Dublin for himself and some yoke he met on 'plenty of fish', (who he got pregnant), thanks to Mr. Ryan.

    Fact.
    FFG. Keeping the Axis of Corruption intact!

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    Politics.ie Member making waves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fr. Ted Crilly View Post
    Ryan will hold his seat.
    A great man for getting people council houses, like his brother was before him....
    Useless on the national stage.
    You mean that Fingal are building council houses - when did that happen?
    Separate Church and State

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    Looking from outside I never see or hear of Brendan Ryan, does he do a lot of work on the ground?

    He's seems vunerable or am I off the mark?
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.
    George Orwell

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    Don't see Ryan holding on, relied on his brother cnvassing and reminding them last time, now even less while remember his brother.

    Think carpet bagger Clifford Lee is in with a chance.

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