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Thread: Galway west: call the GE results

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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Default Galway west: call the GE results

    This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

    Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

    The runners and riders so far are:

    Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv (Fianna Fail)
    Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
    Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

    Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
    Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
    Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
    Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
    Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
    Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
    Nicola Daveron (Renua)
    Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

    You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be at risk here?ò
    Last edited by statsman; 6th November 2018 at 02:03 AM.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

    Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

    The runners and riders so far are:

    Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv
    Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
    Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

    Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
    Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
    Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
    Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
    Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
    Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
    Nicola Daveron (Renua)
    Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

    You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be here?
    I see you haven’t given a party for O’Cuiv. Do you know something that you might share with us.
    Has his trips up north affected his position.

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    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    If FG couldn't win 3 seats in 2011 they are not going to in 2018. They were 1900 off a third seat last time. SF were 1100 seats off if the 5th seat. I think though that while Catherine Connolly TD (Ind) came fourth, she is still potentially vulnerable because Inds seem to be losing ground in recent polls. But on balance I predict status quo: 2 FG, 1 FF, 2 Inds.
    Save the 27th

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    Quote Originally Posted by WayOutWest View Post
    I see you haven’t given a party for O’Cuiv. Do you know something that you might share with us.
    Has his trips up north affected his position.
    Ooops.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    This is a thread for informed local discussion to predict who will take the seats. The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

    Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind

    The runners and riders so far are:

    Deputy Eamon O'Cuiv (Fianna Fail)
    Deputy Hildegrade Naughten (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Sean Kyne (Fine Gael)
    Deputy Noel Grealish (Indo)
    Deputy Catherine Conolly (Indo)

    Cllr. Niall McNelis (Labour)
    Cllr. Mairéad Farrell (Sinn Féin)
    Jessy Kelly (Jessy Ní Cheallaigh) (Solidarity)
    Joe Loughnane (People Before Profit),
    Niall O Tuathail (Social Democrats)
    Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party)
    Nicola Daveron (Renua)
    Cllr Mike Cubbard (Independent)

    You'd think the 2nd FG seat might be at risk here?ò
    You’ve put O’Cuiv back as FF, maybe you should have left the party as blank.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    If FG couldn't win 3 seats in 2011 they are not going to in 2018. They were 1900 off a third seat last time. SF were 1100 seats off if the 5th seat. I think though that while Catherine Connolly TD (Ind) came fourth, she is still potentially vulnerable because Inds seem to be losing ground in recent polls. But on balance I predict status quo: 2 FG, 1 FF, 2 Inds.
    This is one of the places where Howlin's call for transfers could have most effect. If Labour can get ahead of the SDs they should then get a lot closer to Connolly. And as with so many Independent TDs her first-preference vote probably won't drop, but she mightn't have the glut of other Indo no-hopers running (and transferring to her) this time.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

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    Catherine Connolly was slow getting her constituency work up to speed, but word is she's powering away serving city and south Connemara constituents. Hildegard has surprised people with her hospital campaign, and although she seemed vulnerable to start, and might even be still with the loss of O'Mahoney's south Mayo vote, she's not the worst bet to hang on either.

    The rest are also rans, city types who think press release campaigning will get them a seat. Of particular note was the spectacular collapse of SF's chances last year with Mairead Farrell's camp stealing defeat from the jaws of victory through a nasty campaign against Trevor O'Clochartaigh. Niall McNelis won't be reviving the dead corpse of Labour any time soon, but it will be fun to watch him try.

    With O'Cuiv, Kyne, Grealish dead certs, and with Connolly and Naughton making use of their offices, chances are no change come the election whenever it comes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WayOutWest View Post
    You’ve put O’Cuiv back as FF, maybe you should have left the party as blank.
    Or FF N/A

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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WayOutWest View Post
    You’ve put O’Cuiv back as FF, maybe you should have left the party as blank.
    Watch this space.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Quote Originally Posted by RelentlessApathy! View Post
    Catherine Connolly was slow getting her constituency work up to speed, but word is she's powering away serving city and south Connemara constituents. Hildegard has surprised people with her hospital campaign, and although she seemed vulnerable to start, and might even be still with the loss of O'Mahoney's south Mayo vote, she's not the worst bet to hang on either.

    The rest are also rans, city types who think press release campaigning will get them a seat. Of particular note was the spectacular collapse of SF's chances last year with Mairead Farrell's camp stealing defeat from the jaws of victory through a nasty campaign against Trevor O'Clochartaigh. Niall McNelis won't be reviving the dead corpse of Labour any time soon, but it will be fun to watch him try.

    With O'Cuiv, Kyne, Grealish dead certs, and with Connolly and Naughton making use of their offices, chances are no change come the election whenever it comes.
    If Cuív decides not to run as an FU to Micheál Martin, FF will need to scramble for his votes.
    History will record with the greatest astonishment that those who had the most to lose did the least to prevent its happening.

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