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Thread: Mp's Trigger Vote of No Confidence in May and will vote *today* -Predictions and Preferences

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    Politics.ie Member Surkov's Avatar
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    Default Mp's Trigger Vote of No Confidence in May and will vote *today* -Predictions and Preferences

    Well it has finally happened. The 48 letters are in. The vote will occur within hours.

    Please reply and state a) your prediction and b) your preference (would you prefer May stay in place as PM for the time being at least... or is she so toxic she should be gotten rid of ASAP).

    Link:
    'I will contest it’: UK PM May to face vote of confidence in leadership over Brexit deal

    May is about to fight tooth and nail to stay on.

    My prediction is she will lose the vote. My preference is that she loses. However, I would have preferred this contest to happen a little later down the road so as to maximise the chances of a WTO Brexit. Ideally May would have floundered on, delaying and delaying the vote on here "deal" which would ultimately have been defeated -presuming that vote ultimately would have occurred (perhaps it still will?). The clock would run out and a WTO Brexit would happen by default. But for her to win the contest now ensures she stays on as PM for perhaps another year.

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    She'll win the vote.

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    Politics.ie Member livingstone's Avatar
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    Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.

    And she should stay - any leadership contest now will probably throw up a leader who will allow no deal to arise, as is the default. Only May (or someone like Rudd, who I don't think would win the leadership) would ensure a no deal exit.

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    Politics.ie Member Surkov's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levellers View Post
    She'll win the vote.
    My thinking is that since she would have been forced out had she lost the vote on her "deal" hands down, and it's pretty clear that "deal" will never pass no matter what, she should lose the contest today. But will she? As I said earlier contesting her leadership now is premature. Late January or February would have increased the odds. Oh well!

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    Politics.ie Member Surkov's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by livingstone View Post
    Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.

    And she should stay - any leadership contest now will probably throw up a leader who will allow no deal to arise, as is the default. Only May (or someone like Rudd, who I don't think would win the leadership) would ensure a no deal exit.
    Freudian slip?

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    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levellers View Post
    She'll win the vote.
    That was the prediction a few weeks ago when they couldn't get the signatures to force a vote. I think most MPs will vote for self preservation and support May
    Beer is proof that God loves us - Benjamin Franklin

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    Politics.ie Member livingstone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surkov View Post
    Freudian slip?
    A slip certainly.

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    Politics.ie Member Surkov's Avatar
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    Reminder: this is a secret vote.

    Anything could happen really. What one says in public and feels in private are not necessarily one and same.

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    Politics.ie Member Surkov's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by livingstone View Post
    Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.
    Don't you think May should win at least 200 votes to retain some semblance of credibility, at least within her own party?

    If she has a very weak victory she should do the honourable thing and resign. She won't though.

    How would you feel if she won by exactly a majority + 1 vote.

    That's it, 1 vote.

    And then decided to 'soldier on' staying in such a high office.

    You -and btw the idea is to try and deliver objective opinions - feel that would be proper order?

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