Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 26 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 253

Thread: What caused the explosion in construction costs such as the James children's hospital project?

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    3,058
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default What caused the explosion in construction costs such as the James children's hospital project?

    Typical of exploding construction costs,the final estimates for the St James Children's hospital has ballooned to a horrendous 1.7 thousand million euros, more than double the initial estimate. This hyper inflation in costs has a number of causes. The most important cost driver is recovery in commercial construction from the construction depression which lasted for several years after the collapse of the Celtic Tiger construction boom. With the construction labour force dramatically reduced by mass emigration in the depression, construction costs and bid prices were poised to spike upwards in cyclical recovery.

    Still, the government might have done more to keep costs from exploding. Irish and eastern European trades and professions who emigrated in the depression are likely deterred from returning by high 50% marginal tax rates on incomes above the average and absurdly high rents and housing costs in Dublin, both the fault of government. In construction,overtime can be important at times to meet project deadlines but construction workers who work in hard manual jobs are reluctant to take a pay cut of half on overtime for income tax.

    Apprenticeships in construction have also been neglected going by the drastic reduction in construction training programmes in many ITs. The government should have a campaign to persuade young Irish that they would have a better career in construction trades than with many mediocre or useless third level degrees and diplomas. This is not to disparage the value of high quality degrees and diplomas but the third level has attracted too many "bums on seats" just to earn fees and keep going despite parsimonious government funding and inadequate average fees.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Talamh an Éisc
    Posts
    11,086
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Cheer up, Ireland, you’ve got lots of company. Construction cost overruns are a global problem:

    Three types of explanation for cost overrun exist: technical, psychological, and political-economic. Technical explanations account for cost overrun in terms of imperfect forecasting techniques, inadequate data, etc. Psychological explanations account for overrun in terms of optimism bias with forecasters. Scope creep, where the requirements or targets rises during the project, is common. Finally, political-economic explanations see overrun as the result of strategic misrepresentation of scope or budgets. Historically, political explanations for cost overrun have been seen to be the most dominant.[4] In the USA, the architectural firm Home Architects has attributed this to a human trait they call "Psychology of Construction Cost Denial", regarding the cost inflation of custom homes.[5]

    Cost overrun - Wikipedia
    Success in megaproject management is typically defined as projects being delivered on budget, time, and benefits. If, as the evidence indicates, approximately one out of ten megaprojects is on budget, one out of ten is on schedule, and one out of ten is on benefits, then approximately one in a thousand projects is a success, defined as on target for all three. Even if the numbers were wrong by a factor two – so that two, instead of one, out of ten projects were on target for cost, schedule, and benefits, respectively – the success rate would still be dismal, now eight in a thousand. This serves to illustrate what may be called the "iron law of megaprojects": Over budget, over time, over and over again (Flyvbjerg, 2011). Best practice is an outlier, average practice a disaster in this interesting and very costly area of management.

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0003.pdf
    Flyvbjerg...writes that megaproject planners are often outright dishonest, systematically overestimating​ benefits and underestimating costs. He cites an unusually candid comment that Willie Brown, a former speaker of the California State Assembly and mayor of San Francisco, made in a 2013 newspaper column. Referring to huge cost overruns during the construction of San Francisco’s four-and-a-half-billion-dollar Transbay Transit Center, Brown wrote, “We always knew the initial estimate was way under the real cost…. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.”

    The Trouble with Megaprojects | The New Yorker
    And things could be far worse. In my Canadian province, we are currently wrestling with a hydro dam project that may bankrupt us:

    common cause of cost overrun, expert says at public inquiry over $12.7B Muskrat Falls dam | National Post
    Last edited by Ardillaun; 22nd December 2018 at 09:33 PM.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    10,809
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Apologies in advance.

    Brexit.

    Just kidding.

    EU regulations

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member Franzoni's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Dublin Wood Quay ...now Northside
    Posts
    16,154
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Berlins new Airport....six years overdue and so far has cost 6.6 Billion euro and still not open...

    I heard Harris on the news he says they want to put the latest technology in now so they have a state of the art facility and don't have to start upgrading as soon as it's finished.....

    As someone who has worked on these projects it makes sense as i've seen the reverse and it ends up costing more.....
    Last edited by Franzoni; 22nd December 2018 at 09:36 PM.
    What the imagination can't conjure, reality delivers with a shrug

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    3,058
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ardillaun View Post
    Cheer up, Ireland, you’ve got lots of company. Construction cost overruns are a global problem:







    And things could be far worse. In my Canadian province, we are currently wrestling with a hydro dam project that may bankrupt us:

    common cause of cost overrun, expert says at public inquiry over $12.7B Muskrat Falls dam | National Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Franzoni View Post
    Berlins new Airport....six years overdue and so far has cost 6.6 Billion euro and still not open...

    I heard Harris on the news he says they want to put the latest technology in now so they have a state of the art facility and don't have to start upgrading as soon as it's finished.....

    As someone who has worked on these projects it makes sense as i've seen the reverse and it ends up costing more.....
    TAKE RESPONSIBILITY
    Responsibility is usually diffused in the management of government contruction projects, with committees making decisions. Irish civil servants have form in this. That's a formula for disastrous cost overruns. Responsibility needs to be entrusted to one person who will be held accountable but if that puts his or her career at risk, the rewards such also compensate for the risk assumed. In the case of a civil servant, it might mean a huge bonus payment. Civil service culture would balk at that but tolerates
    magnificent tax free lump sums for time serving.
    Last edited by Patslatt1; 24th December 2018 at 04:02 AM.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    10,809
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ardillaun View Post
    Cheer up, Ireland, you’ve got lots of company. Construction cost overruns are a global problem:







    And things could be far worse. In my Canadian province, we are currently wrestling with a hydro dam project that may bankrupt us:

    common cause of cost overrun, expert says at public inquiry over $12.7B Muskrat Falls dam | National Post
    Mega projects should be broken down into multiple smaller contracts.

    The last article is interesting in that is contains virtually no useful information and then suggests that local groups and indigenous populations are the problem.

    It’s one thing to overrun after construction is underway, it’s quite another to overrun before the project starts.

    The latter is preferable but until we see the side by side lists of items costed for the nch, then (and then, and then, and then) and now, this thread is entirely speculatorific.

    Have at it.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Bale
    Posts
    8,772
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    When the job was priced wages in construction were a lot lower. Same goes for materials.

    Good look trying to get a shuttering capenter or a groundworkers to work for 2011 level wages.

    Those lads deserve big wages given how scummy builders paid the few of them working ************************ all during the recession.
    We appreciate the move by the Government today and remind ourselves that it is a bail-out by taxpayers for the banks. Pearse Doherty

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Posts
    4,503
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    We should get a load of boggers up from the country to build it.
    Those lads will work for peanuts.....
    Flushing Out The PS/CS Trolls and long term Doleboys...two sets of leeches on our society.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Bale
    Posts
    8,772
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fr. Ted Crilly View Post
    We should get a load of boggers up from the country to build it.
    Those lads will work for peanuts.....
    People know their worth.

    So you're pro low wages.

    Then they have to get a welfare top up.
    We appreciate the move by the Government today and remind ourselves that it is a bail-out by taxpayers for the banks. Pearse Doherty

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Talamh an Éisc
    Posts
    11,086
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by General Mayhem View Post
    Mega projects should be broken down into multiple smaller contracts.

    The last article is interesting in that is contains virtually no useful information and then suggests that local groups and indigenous populations are the problem.

    It’s one thing to overrun after construction is underway, it’s quite another to overrun before the project starts.

    The latter is preferable but until we see the side by side lists of items costed for the nch, then (and then, and then, and then) and now, this thread is entirely speculatorific.

    Have at it.
    Here’s some more info on that project. You can see here that one cause of the cost overrun may have been a deliberate underestimation of the cost.

    I didn't question Muskrat Falls cost estimates, former premier tells inquiry | CTV News

    As pointed out above, this is an all too common occurrence in large projects.

Page 1 of 26 1234511 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •