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1993 Canadian election - warning for FF?


FloatingVoterTralee

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In 1993, Kim Campbell, the Canadian Prime Minister, led the Progressive Conservative Party to probably the worst-ever defeat for a governing party, falling from 169 seats to 2, and losing her own seat in the process. The Conservative support base became eroded in three directions, losing vote to the Bloc Quebecois, to the Liberals in the East and the rightwing Reform Party in the West. Obviously, such an extreme collapse couldn't happen under STV, but if, mirroring Canada, rural voters defected to Fine Gael and the urban vote switched to Labour, could Fianna Fáil fall as low as 40 seats?
 


Iarmhi Gael

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May 2, 2007
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Nice thought Floating. But Its Ireland we're living in and a prime example of the stupidity of the Irish voters look at your own county Kerry.

We'll probably see a John O'Donoghue led Fianna Fail return with an Overall Majority after promising to give every Irish person their own Euro money tree for the garden
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

In 1993, Kim Campbell, the Canadian Prime Minister, led the Progressive Conservative Party to probably the worst-ever defeat for a governing party, falling from 169 seats to 2, and losing her own seat in the process. The Conservative support base became eroded in three directions, losing vote to the Bloc Quebecois, to the Liberals in the East and the rightwing Reform Party in the West. Obviously, such an extreme collapse couldn't happen under STV, but if, mirroring Canada, rural voters defected to Fine Gael and the urban vote switched to Labour, could Fianna Fáil fall as low as 40 seats?
At currents polls 40 seats is likely for them.
 

FloatingVoterTralee

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Maybe I was just a few months too early with this thread, certainly the 40 of this thread can be safely revised downwards to circa 25, and it's hard to see a major recovery in seven weeks, given the organisation of the three other main parties and FF's own internal infighting. Also, if the so-called "Young Turks" are largely unseated, and the rump party comprises mostly greying veterans, that would further increase the uncertainty regarding the party's future.
 

dent

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I can't keep my fingers crossed for the next 9 weeks !

That said, we have no idea how the scourge of inbreeding will benefit FF on GE day.
 

Bigblackhorse

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Jan 17, 2011
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906
In 1993, Kim Campbell, the Canadian Prime Minister, led the Progressive Conservative Party to probably the worst-ever defeat for a governing party, falling from 169 seats to 2, and losing her own seat in the process. The Conservative support base became eroded in three directions, losing vote to the Bloc Quebecois, to the Liberals in the East and the rightwing Reform Party in the West. Obviously, such an extreme collapse couldn't happen under STV, but if, mirroring Canada, rural voters defected to Fine Gael and the urban vote switched to Labour, could Fianna Fáil fall as low as 40 seats?
True but the PR system will help to ensure FF is not wiped out
 

controller

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Feb 25, 2009
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We'll probably see a John O'Donoghue led Fianna Fail return with an Overall Majority after promising to give every Irish person their own Euro money tree for the garden
There is just a little bit too much of the truth in that last bit of the sentence
 

Cai

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May 30, 2004
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At currents polls 40 seats is likely for them.
Current polls indicate that they'll be well below 40.

Having said that the Canada horror show happened in the context of a First Past the Post electoral system. Your system makes total wipeout less likely.
 

Biffomania

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Given Biffo's unilateral declaration to every man, woman and child in the country, including FF members, that he intends leading FF into the next election and beyond, we must not underestimate his proven ability to snatch ultimate Armageddon from every minor crisis - PR system or not Biffo will confound everyone, except himself, with how few FF seats will be saved under his "leadership". And given his alarmingly increasing detachment from reality, he'll proudly declare any number over 15/20 seats to represent a great personal victory on his part.......and therefore a vote of confidence in him. Thankfully for the rest of us FF will only be prised from Biffo's cold dead hands.
 

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