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2010 predictions


HarshBuzz

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 28, 2008
Messages
11,935
Morning all,

at this time of year, it's always fun and instructive to look forward and make a few predictions for the coming year - hopefully the kind of ones that can make you some money too ;).

Here's mine, will be interesting to see what the informed posters on here think. I would be particularly interested to see the predictions of Dreaded Estate, kerrynorth, Cassandra Syndrome and mryoungdan.

Irish economy:

1. 'da Banks'; as the NAMA discounts deepen, defaults increase and need for further recapitalisations becomes ever more acute (and the total lack of market appetite for same) AIB will pass into majority state ownership quite quickly, certainly before the summer. BoI will suffer the same fate - although with a lesser degree of State ownership. Expect the government to use every trick in the book to avoid full-on nationalisation. Shares slump back to the 'penny stock' category.

The EBS\PTSB\rump of INBS will consummate their 'third force' marriage.

By any reckonable metric, the lie that NAMA 'will get credit flowing again' will be exposed for the drivel that it unquestionably is. The Squeeze continues unabated and existing customers are hit by greatly increased charges and margins.

No criminal charges will be laid as a result of shenanigans at any Irish financial institution as the Great Anglo & INBS Cover-Ups continue to mask what really went on in these places.

The NAMA business plan is torn up (as a work of fiction) and rewritten under heavy pressure from Brussels - the €54bn is revised down to less than €40bn.

More than 5,000 people will be laid off by the Irish banks.

2. Unemployment: Jan\Feb\Mar = meltdown in the domestic services (esp. hospitality) and retail sectors. We move past 500,000 on the Live Register by Easter and then stablise due to the mitigating effect of discouraged workers and emigration outflows\EEs returning home.

3. Fiscal; Lenihan's bluster about turning the corner is exposed for the spin it is - tax receipts continue to fall and come in under 30bn for the year. Spending sees increases over the budget targets - driven by increased SW payments. The 2011 budget will be harsher and deeper than the one just past - we will require an adjustment of over €6bn just to stand still. Mini-budget in mid 2010 focusses on the revenue side of the equation and soaks the middle-class PAYE earner still further.

4. Property: 2010 will be the year of free fall and active revulsion towards property as an asset class - 'Despair' on the Market Cycle of Emotions. Prices fall below 2001 levels. Tens of thousands of middle-class families go bust as their property 'investments' strangle them. Rent levels continue to plummet.

5. Continued deflation; -3%

6. Bond issuance; our spreads continue to widen as the black hole that is our banking sector continues to weigh on our ratings, we are downgraded further.

Other Irish:

1. Politics; the FF\Green coalition stays in power for the year. No election. Cowen increasingly viewed as a lame duck Taoiseach and Lenihan's position becomes ever stronger.

2. Industrial relations: no meaningful PS strikes as the membership of the unions recognise the futility of same. Expect refusal to co-operate with reform agendas to be met by threats to pay - a deal will be done.

3. other bits and pieces; Ireland win the Grand Slam again :D. Leinster and Munster contest the HC final :D. Bertie swallows a packet of truth serum and tells us all on The Late Late where the money really came from - Eoghan Harris says its unfair to blame him for this ;).

Worldwide:

1. Stock markets tumble as it becomes increasingly apparent that growth is not resuming at any pace. Dow goes sub 7500. Gold continues to march towards 1800.

2. The Euro goes above parity with Sterling and hits 1.75 to the dollar.
 

Vega1447

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 18, 2007
Messages
5,783
Get a grip, man

An absurdly optimistic post...
 

Gobuchul

Member
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
Messages
35
The irish economy finally turns the corner and forges ahead. Growth 10% +
Unemployment rapidly returns to boom levels.
VAT dropped to 0% but due to Lenihans much vaulted financial wizardry, vat receipts are up.
Oil discovered in Ballymun.
Listowel wins tidy town 2010.
Ireland wins World cup due to technical rule infractions by all 32 nations attending in south africa.
 

Marcos the black

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2009
Messages
18,708
Tipp to win the All Ireland..
 

kerrynorth

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Joined
Oct 5, 2005
Messages
1,525
GDP in 2010 -3.5%, Tax revenues to come in under €29.5billion as the deficit rises again to in excess of 15% of GDP. Another big budget in December equally hitting spending and taxation of at least another €4billion, and maybe more. Unemployment to rise to over 15%.
 

redneck

Well-known member
Joined
May 5, 2007
Messages
6,492
Strange diseases will hit Ireland. Bluetongue/cholera and so on.
Boil order notices on the Western seaboard and maybe Dublin also.
Tories win election in UK- but just fall short of majority. Minority Labour government struggles on.
Power sharing in North collapses, fresh election brings in SDLP/DUP power sharing
Good News:
Unemployment falls
Anglo 3 face trial.
Galway and Tipp reach All Ireland hurling final
Cork win football
Spain V England world cup final, Spain win. England to host 2018 finals
Ireland finally beat NZ in rugby.
Pope and President visit Ireland
 

Digout

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Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
1,396
Another budget in March to deal with the extra money needed for dole after the banks let thousands go, retail collapses and pubs and restaurants hit the wall.
 

Keith-M

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Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,779
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
AT HOME
Live register numbers fall as immigrants continue to desert the country in droves.
Deflation to end in Q1, but continuing decline in house prices and rents.
No major disruption from public sector strikes.
SF come second to FG in Donegal South East (Factual; preducts overall majory to SF at the next election).
Govenment stay in power and increasingly inept opposition start to decline in the polls.
Ireland send one of our previous winners to Eurovision and a Top 10 result is seen as a success.
Another good year in rugby but a tough draw sees the football team lose early ground in the race for 2012.

ABROAD
UK general election sees the return of the Conservatives, but little change in NI's MPs.
Growing calls for a referendum on independence in Scotland.
Obama poll ratings start to creep up as the economy picks up.
Change of government in Australia, despite the lack of impact of the recession there.
Spain beat Brazil in the WC final, with two African countries in the last 8.
 

eoinod

Active member
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
261
Well if the economist is to believed, we will experience negative growth again..
 

disgruntledcitizen

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Joined
Jul 19, 2009
Messages
405
jeez lads could you not let up on the "doom porn" for just a few days and enjoy yourselves in the way more normal sane people try to ?
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Joined
Aug 23, 2009
Messages
16,908
THanks Harshbuzz for the plug.

The predictable thing about 2010 is that it is going to be very unpredictable. There are so many wildcards, contagions and butterfly wings flappings out there to hamper accurately forecasting the sequence of events.

What will happen in 2010 is the Global Financial System will collapse from excess broadly based leverage, defaults and a synchornised flight of capital of up to 10%.

The hard part is to determine what will bring this about. Here are the wildcards.

SOVERNEIGN WILDCARDS
Dubai contagion already unleashed
Greece Defaulting - Contagion for the Euro
Subsequent default of PIIGS nations (Portugal Italy Ireland Greece Spain)
Bankruptcy of above Nations
UK Defaults and goes Bankrupt
Japan Defaults and goes Bankrupt
Ultimately the US defaulting collapses the system.

COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE & PRIME MORTGAGE
As business fails and unemployment increases the pressure on the big US banks intensifies. Remember the Bank Stress tests back in April? They have reached their adverse scenario already. Bank of America collapses. The rate of bank failures in the US increases from 7 a week now to 20 a week, the FDIC can no longer guarantee accounts. Bank holiday decalred to avoid bank run. System collapses.

US BOND MARKET
Americas current account deficit is shrinking, meaning that its capital and financial account surplus is shrinking so the amount of foreign dollars to buy treasuries starts imploding causing treasury yields to soar and ultimately retail interest rates forcing the Federal Reserve to increase its Quantiative Easing program which is finite at 175 billion of maotgage backed securities putting the States into a Zimbabwe like scenario. Hyperinflation, system collapses

GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS

There will be a supply problem next year as adverse weather conditions and the global recession has curtailed producers propensity to supply. Demand is increasing as the population increases and people in China and India are demanding more food per capita.

Food prices soar, contagion, collapse

PEAK OIL

Oil continues to rise.

DERIVATIVES

Liquidating derivatives mops of real wealth.

IRELAND

New Year - AIB and Bank of Ireland have to be Nationalised. Carnage in retail and hospitality sector. Deflationary depression intensifies. Failed Bond auction as Irish banks can no longer buy our own bonds. Ireland defaults and is declrared bankrupt. IMF called in.


There lots more.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
 

flavirostris

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Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Messages
25,031
Brian Cowen goes back to working behind a bar in Clara
 

Truth.ie

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Joined
Oct 5, 2008
Messages
28,077
Al Qaeda to strike in South Africa during the World Cup.
Probably during the USA-Algeria fixture.
 

FrankSpeaks

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Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
4,625
Kerry to Win All Ireland in Football
Tipp the Hurling
Munster to Win Heiniken Cup
England to win World Cup
Cowen still Taoiseach
Mary to appear in Knock
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,325
National:
Cowen disposed of by FF.
Attacks on bankers and politicians.
New FF leadership is better than Cowen's gombeenarchy and restores some confidence in FF.
FG loses points against FF as it fails to capitalise on FF's mistakes.
Backbenchers in FG get upset.
Potential establishment of right wing party in Ireland.
Martin Cullen chosen as compromise leader of FF after Martin and Ahern fight it out. ;)
Anglo investigation causes political casualties.

Regards...jmcc
 
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