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2013 Commercial Property predictions


Howya

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Feb 29, 2012
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It's that time of year when the talking heads produce their pearls of wisdom about the coming year.

ref IT article
2013: Prospects for the year ahead - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012

Mark FitzGerald Chairman, Sherry FitzGerald Group
After four years of market contraction, the commercial and residential markets have both begun to stabilise, most notably through the uplift in market activity.
When Europe recovers, Ireland is likely to recover quickly. Ireland led Europe into the crash and looks like leading it out of it.
James Nugent MD, Lisney
IPD (Investment Property Database) is showing a fall of 5 per cent over the past 12 months but I think these values have stopped falling. Some sectors may still be at risk to further falls. I’d have a concern about some out-of-town retail properties in certain provincial towns.
John Moran MD, Jones Lang LaSalle
For absolute prime we think that we are at the bottom. There is still further to go on secondary assets and land. Primarily driven by occupational uncertainty.
Larry Brennan Chairman, Savills
Yes, the prime markets have stabilised and arguably in certain sectors and locations, such as prime Dublin offices where supply is limited, we are likely to see some rental growth and capital appreciation.
There is, however, significant supply in other areas, particularly in secondary non-prime locations.
Values of these properties may have a little further to go.
Michael Harrington Executive director, CBRE
The outlook for 2013 is cautiously optimistic and if we as a nation can weather the upcoming budget with the same resilient spirit that got us through previous austerity adjustments, we should all be in a better place this time next year.
A pretty consistent message.

Wishful thinking? Group think?

My thoughts - at best the market will go sideways next year.
Your predictions?
 


Analyzer

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THESH!TERIMES are trying to talk up a sector in the property market.

And giving free rein to spoofers like the estate agent you would not recommend to your worst enemy.

Nothing has changed with respect to the propertypaper with a news supplement.
 
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Partizan

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Jan 5, 2005
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7,830
It's that time of year when the talking heads produce their pearls of wisdom about the coming year.

ref IT article
2013: Prospects for the year ahead - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012











A pretty consistent message.

Wishful thinking? Group think?

My thoughts - at best the market will go sideways next year.
Your predictions?
More conclusive proof if ever was needed that a) we havent learned a thing from the property bubble and b) another good reason to remind myself why I the IT is only good for the cat box.
 

Dublin 4

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Your Cat isn't very fussy then :lol:
 

Mr. Bumble

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18,252
It's that time of year when the talking heads produce their pearls of wisdom about the coming year.

ref IT article
2013: Prospects for the year ahead - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012











A pretty consistent message.

Wishful thinking? Group think?

My thoughts - at best the market will go sideways next year.
Your predictions?
Defaults on mortgages for buy to let commercial properties will continue to rise and the market will be increasingly flooded by banks trying to recoup some of their money. Rents will decrease as more SMEs go bust and landlords realise that they either have empty premises or they do a deal with tenants. Because of these two factors, I think rents and values will decline, both possibly by 10%. Unfortunately.

Wrt to the Masters of the Universe quoted in the IT, and a nod to Mandy Rice Davies, they would say that wouldn't they?
 

ottovonbismarck

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So under worked auctioneers are predicting a rise in property prices. And in the Times, the paper that was funded by the property boom!

Regards...hard to be positive
 

Ribeye

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Jul 12, 2011
Messages
26,304
It's that time of year when the talking heads produce their pearls of wisdom about the coming year.

ref IT article
2013: Prospects for the year ahead - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012


A pretty consistent message.

Wishful thinking? Group think?

My thoughts - at best the market will go sideways next year.
Your predictions?
Surely if all those firms think we are at the bottom, they would be quietly buying themselves,

Like, with all those property guru's on the payroll, those companies must be sitting on huge cash hoards,

It's not like they're all busted and only being kepth alive by Nama welfare or anything:):)

Flippin shills:)
 

zakalwe1

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Oct 3, 2008
Messages
5,305
It's that time of year when the talking heads produce their pearls of wisdom about the coming year.

ref IT article
2013: Prospects for the year ahead - The Irish Times - Wed, Dec 12, 2012











A pretty consistent message.

Wishful thinking? Group think?

My thoughts - at best the market will go sideways next year.
Your predictions?
nothing is going to happen while there is still some uncertainty about upwards only rent reviews.

i think savilles are talking through their wholes....you can't walk down a street in dublin without tripping over an empty office block.
 

Ribeye

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Has anyone else noticed how hard the toilet paper of record are pushing that "good news" story from Michael Heasunstab today,

They're really ramming it down people's throats,

Tom Lyons and NCB stockbrokers are also pushing it,

Mmmm, very interesting says Ribser!
 

ottovonbismarck

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nothing is going to happen while there is still some uncertainty about upwards only rent reviews.

i think savilles are talking through their wholes....you can't walk down a street in dublin without tripping over an empty office block.
It's not only Dublin. Plenty of unopened commercial and office units outside the pale.

Regards...half door
 

dunno

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Jan 29, 2009
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THESH!TERIMES are trying to talk up a sector in the property market.

And giving free rein to spoofers like the estate agent you would not recommend to your worst enemy.

Nothing has chamged with respect to the propertypaper with a news supplement.
There is much that is appalling about the Irish Times, from bungled and biased editing of already poor articles, but its role as shill in chief of the property bubble, is one of the worst. This country faces a near decade of bailout stagnation, largely as result of that and certain acts of treason, and apart from what obviously follows from that, I won't and no one else should play their game.
 
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smitchy2

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Check out their predictions for the last 4 years and see how far off they were.
These guys were all big contributors to the soft landing nonsense.
 

dunno

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I see the crap they spewed when changing the paper on the top of presses. I swear it creates a dust bubble.
 

Howya

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Surely if all those firms think we are at the bottom, they would be quietly buying themselves,

Like, with all those property guru's on the payroll, those companies must be sitting on huge cash hoards,

It's not like they're all busted and only being kepth alive by Nama welfare or anything:):)

Flippin shills:)
Buying themselves - surely that would give rise to potential conflicts of interest? that's never happened before, has it?
 

Howya

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Feb 29, 2012
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nothing is going to happen while there is still some uncertainty about upwards only rent reviews.

i think savilles are talking through their wholes....you can't walk down a street in dublin without tripping over an empty office block.
The abolition of the upwards only rent review for exsiting leases was been knocked on the head by Noonan in the budget speech in Dec 2011.
 

Howya

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daveL

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There is much that is appalling about the Irish Times, from bungled and biased editing of already poor articles, but its role as shill in chief of the property bubble, is one of the worst. This country faces a near decade of bailout stagnation, largely as result of that and certain acts of treason, and apart from what obviously follows from that, I won't and no one else should play their game.
Our Champagne socialists are very fond of hoovering up scarce resources for profit... Look at all our saintly hand wringing folks coining 6 figure salaries in the charity industry...

What was it they said? 'The story of why!?'

Or something equally derisory
 

Howya

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Our Champagne socialists are very fond of hoovering up scarce resources for profit... Look at all our saintly hand wringing folks coining 6 figure salaries in the charity industry...

What was it they said? 'The story of why!?'

Or something equally derisory
...you wouldn't be referring to the unions by any chance:)
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Ha ha! The Mulled Wine must be in a rip of supply this week at the Oirish Times HQ, just like all the mass vacant commercial properties across this feudal kip.

Maybe some of these experts should learn the fundamentals of demand and supply and work out the effects of glut on prices. That's before we even analyse the impotent effective demand.



Supply and demand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This must be the easiest prediction for 2013. Lot's more commercial properties will be released into an illiquid market and properties will continue to fall in price.
 

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