2016 US Presidential Election Results Thread

YesSireeeBob

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Although the polls have not opened yet, we should know the first results in a couple of hours, at around 5am.

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire is known for being one of the first places to declare its results - often up to 24 hours before the rest of the US

In 2012, AP reported at 4.38am that Barack Obama had won, so around 4am / 5am we might know who will be the next president.

Hour by Hour Guide


 
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USER1234

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You really wanted to be the one to start the presidential elections results thread, right?
 
D

Deleted member 48908

The polls have been open for weeks....with many votes already having been cast.

But stringjack (or some other member of the moditariat) will usurp your thread. It's how they roll on p.ie.
 

YesSireeeBob

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You really wanted to be the one to start the presidential elections results thread, right?
No.
I waited, as I expected someone else to start one, as the first results are in a couple of hours, even if they are only from Dixville Notch.


The polls have been open for weeks....with many votes already having been cast.

But stringjack (or some other member of the moditariat) will usurp your thread. It's how they roll on p.ie.
You're right - maybe I should have said the final day of voting.
 
D

Deleted member 48908

No.
I waited, as I expected someone else to start one, as the first results are in a couple of hours, even if they are only from Dixville Notch.




You're right - maybe I should have said the final day of voting.
Hey Bob, you can't always get what you want....

[video=youtube;5BykilS816E]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BykilS816E[/video]
 

Dame_Enda

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Watch out for fake polls to confuse voters into voting for hrc
 

Dame_Enda

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Politico has a report of a plan to release "projections" during the entire period of voting tomorrow, with Obama campaign veterans involved.

CNN saying "all polls" show her ahead. Really? They didn't show the LA Times and IBD polls.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Politico has a report of a plan to release "projections" during the entire period of voting tomorrow, with Obama campaign veterans involved.

CNN saying "all polls" show her ahead. Really? They didn't show the LA Times and IBD polls.
If the IBD tracking poll is done the same way as the LA Times one, it's equally dubious. The problem with a tracking poll where you go back to the very same people every time is that if one particular voter in the poll distorts the sample, that distortion repeats in poll after poll after poll (as has happened in the USC/LA Times poll), whereas if you keep going to different but representative voters each time, those distortions iron themselves out over time.
 

Dame_Enda

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The IBD poll was the most accurate for last 3 presidential elections.

CNN has gone downhill since they started hiring politicians as commentators.. Basically the Fox model but worse.
 

YesSireeeBob

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Dixville Notch voters have choose Hillary Clinton.

These are very small hamlets but they normally lean conservatively.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/11/08/dixville-notch-voters-weigh-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/pEYGOvE3nu79gpx0Z05VbK/story.html


Voters in Dixville Notch, N.H., have spoken.

The small hamlet, traditionally one of the first in the nation to cast ballots on Election Day, saw a handful of voters arrive at the polls early Tuesday.

Hillary Clinton captured four of Dixville Notch’s eight votes. Donald Trump received two; Libertarian Gary Johnson received one vote; and there was one vote for Mitt Romney.

The results were announced on TV moments after the ballots were cast.

Voters also cast ballots early Tuesday in two other small New Hampshire communities, Hart’s Location and Millsfield.
 

cnocpm

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No.
I waited, as I expected someone else to start one, as the first results are in a couple of hours, even if they are only from Dixville Notch.
A nail biter for those 8 votes, Clinton 4, Trump 2, Johnson 1, and 1 Romney write in vote.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dixville Notch also voted 4-4 for the US Senate between Ayotte (R) and Hassan (D).

Not necessarily a pointer to outcome. But it does remind us of the importance of ticket splitting.

I am relieved this wall to wall coverage is about to come to an end. Or maybe not!
 

YesSireeeBob

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Trump takes Millsfield in a landslide, 16 votes vs 4 for Clinton, and one for Bernie Sanders.

In Hart's Location Clinton got 17 votes and Trump 14.
 

Dame_Enda

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Huffpost.

In 2012, the Dixville Notch vote ended in a draw, with both President Barack Obama and Romney earning five votes apiece. Obama won a more decisive victory in Hart’s Location. The final tally saw the president defeating Romney by a score of 23 to 9. Gary Johnson took home one vote.
This is interesting. Trump is outperforming Romney in Harts Location, losing only 17-14, whereas Romney lost 3-1. A sure sign Trump is eating into Blue territory.
 

Dame_Enda

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Well maybe not a "sure" one but maybe an omen. In US elections, theres a history of harbingers of things to come. In 1996 it was Bob Dole falling off his podium. In the GOP primaries it was Carly Fiorina falling off stage at a Cruz rally. I like to think Hillarys fall at the 911 memorial is a metaphor for her faltering campaign.
 

jmcc

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If the IBD tracking poll is done the same way as the LA Times one, it's equally dubious. The problem with a tracking poll where you go back to the very same people every time is that if one particular voter in the poll distorts the sample, that distortion repeats in poll after poll after poll (as has happened in the USC/LA Times poll), whereas if you keep going to different but representative voters each time, those distortions iron themselves out over time.
So how's that projection of 60+ FG seats and 15 or so Labour seats going? :) Didn't quite turn out how the numerologists predicted, did it? The tracking poll is tracking sentiment over time. The other random sample polls are tracking opinion at a specific time. There's a big difference. The most interesting thing in this election will be the impact of the Independent vote which, if it is a floating vote, may well decide the election.
 

Polly Ticks

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Meanwhile, voters in Hart’s Location picked Clinton over Trump by a score of 17 to 14. Gary Johnson picked up 3 votes. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) received 2 votes, while a combined John Kasich-Sanders ticket won a single vote.

Finally, the early votes in Millsfield favored Trump, who prevailed over Clinton by a tally of 16 to four. Sanders took one vote.
These votes for Sanders are frustrating reminders of what might have been.
 


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