2018 US Mid-term elections - Rolling updates


NYCKY

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Polling day in the US midterm elections for 2018 takes place on Tuesday November 6th 2018 for the entire House of Representatives, 35 US Senate seats spread across about two thirds of the states and 36 Gubernatorial elections as well as a host of other local municipal elections and various local referenda.

The 2018 US mid term elections have been described as one of the most consequential in many years. The reality is that most of the US Presidential and mid-term elections are described in such terms.

A key component of this election is the surge in early voting. In recent election cycles voters are increasingly taking advantage of early voting and in three key states, Arizona, Nevada and Texas, early voting totals for 2018 have already exceeded entire voting totals for the mid terms in 2014. More states are expected to follow this pattern. Voting in this years mid terms is expected to be the highest for a midterm in decades.

Most polling indicates that the GOP will loose their House majority and a number of Governorships but could possibly increase their slim Senate majority but the early voting figures could be impacting polling in unknown ways. There are several highly competitive races in each of the three main contests, House, Senate and Governors races.

The elections raise many interesting questions, can Pelosi win back the Speakership and become the first Speaker since longest serving Speaker Sam Rayburn of Texas returned to the Speakership for a third stint in the 1950s? Will McConnell retain his role as Senate majority leader? Who will be elected as leader of the GOP caucus? A number of putative 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates are up for re-election tomorrow and (assuming they win) how might the overall results impact these candidates?

Probably front and center though is what the elections will mean for President Trump and his agenda. A Democratic House could thwart his agenda with all sorts of investigations while an enhanced GOP Senate could make it easier to confirm Cabinet and judicial nominees.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-ratings-changes/
 

Dame_Enda

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I think Pelosi is more of a deal maker as shown by her record as Speaker. I don't think she will agree to a Wall but she might do something on infrastructure. She is old and may be looking to her legacy. She will want to have something to show the electorate in 2020. However moderation is dying in the Democratic Party base and the likes of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez could move against her if she compromises too much as they would see it.
 

ruserious

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Closely following the Beto, Ojeda and GA-Gov races.

The night Trump gets stumped.
 

Dame_Enda

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I think Miller will defeat Ojeda and hold on. Polls mostly back this up.
 

HenryHorace

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A lot of flakes are going to be be melting after these results come out.
 

Catalpast

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A Democratic Majority in the House will only divide the USA even more I'm afraid

- its clear they have the knives out for Trump

- and he will respond in kind....
 

Vega1447

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A Democratic Majority in the House will only divide the USA even more I'm afraid

- its clear they have the knives out for Trump

- and he will respond in kind....
Better to keep a Republican majority in the House then?

Grand.
 

President Bartlet

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A Democratic Majority in the House will only divide the USA even more I'm afraid

- its clear they have the knives out for Trump

- and he will respond in kind....
Yeah because its not divided already under the Rethuglicon control of all three branches! :roll:
 

wombat

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Better to keep a Republican majority in the House then?

Grand.
If Republicans are not well beaten in the house, Trump will be unchallengeable which, long term, will be disaster for Republicans. The only hope for both parties is to start attracting moderate candidates.
 

President Bartlet

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I see RCP have changed their no toss up Senate map from no change to a net gain of 2 for GOP - 53 R 47 D
 

Dame_Enda

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Apparently, the first polls to close are in Indiana, at 6:00 EST - 11:00 pm Ireland time

According to 538, we should know by 2:00 am Thursday Irish time if Democrats are going to win the House, or not.

How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide | FiveThirtyEight
Its not good that results could be announced while people are still voting imho. In any case I think the Libertarian candidate (Brenton) will be the spoiler in that election and Donnelly will hold on. He has smartly portrayed himself as pro Trump in his ads, and even suggested he'd be open to the Wall and ending birthright citizenship. Its a mask of course as shown by his vote against Kavanaugh.
 

owedtojoy

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I see RCP have changed there no toss up Senate map from bo change to a net gain of 2 for GOP - 53 R 47 D
Because in Nevada and Arizona, Republican candidates are either tied (Nevada) or ahead by a whisker (Arizona). Statstical dead heats, those races are wide open.

Also Republicans may win North Dakota, while 538 have McCaskill clinging on in Missouri.

Democratic wins in those states (Nv, Ar, Mo) would leave the Senate with the parties 50 seats each, as likely an outcome as any other.
 

President Bartlet

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Because in Nevada and Arizona, Republican candidates are either tied (Nevada) or ahead by a whisker (Arizona). Statstical dead heats, those races are wide open.

Also Republicans may win North Dakota, while 538 have McCaskill clinging on in Missouri.

Democratic wins in those states (Nv, Ar, Mo) would leave the Senate with the parties 50 seats each, as likely an outcome as any other.
Here's hoping but an as you were would be better than any GOP gains
 

benroe

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If Republicans are not well beaten in the house, Trump will be unchallengeable which, long term, will be disaster for Republicans. The only hope for both parties is to start attracting moderate candidates.
Yep, this is an odd election in that neither side targeted moderates, both think they can win with their core voters, this does not auger well for the future, whichever side wins will think they did so because of how vile and nasty they were to the other side.
 

Paddyc

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Yep, this is an odd election in that neither side targeted moderates, both think they can win with their core voters, this does not auger well for the future, whichever side wins will think they did so because of how vile and nasty they were to the other side.
The Democrats are campaigning on healthcare, wages and tax reform and appealing in particular to white suburban housewives.

Trump is campaigning on Boooga Booga Booga Immigrants will eat your children.

We can see who the vile and nasty one is here.
 

livingstone

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If Republicans are not well beaten in the house, Trump will be unchallengeable which, long term, will be disaster for Republicans. The only hope for both parties is to start attracting moderate candidates.
Tim Kaine has been increasing his profile a bit lately, with a message that the way to beat Trump is not to take the fight to him, but to be the polar opposite to him: civil, moderate, bipartisan. I reckon he's gearing up to run in 2020.
 

benroe

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The Democrats are campaigning on healthcare, wages and tax reform and appealing in particular to white suburban housewives.

Trump is campaigning on Boooga Booga Booga Immigrants will eat your children.

We can see who the vile and nasty one is here.
Sure but you can't deny that the Democrats are characterising all republicans as racist etc. etc.
 
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