2018 US Mid-term elections - Rolling updates


O'Sullivan Bere

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Common for Hispanics maybe.. but O'Rourke is a 100% white honkey. So why is he using a hispanic nickname, if not to try and pretend that he's latino.
Why would you presume a white person of northern/western European birth or descent in a Hispanic environment be any less apt to pick up a Spanish (or Portuguese if amidst Brazilians) nickname? Take this Irishman for example:
Alejandro O'Reilly, 1st Count of O'Reilly
and his companion Colonel Tomás O'Daly for whom we can thank today for the lovely historical colonial fortresses and architecture of places like Havana, San Juan in Puerto Rico, and New Orleans. They weren't born and reared with those Spanish forenames...they were just nicknames via translating them. Same with William Brown, founder of the Argentinian navy, who went by Guillermo there.
William Brown

Beto was born and reared in El Paso, TX. El Paso is over 4/5 ethnic Hispanic, and it's also a border town across the Rio Grande from the Mexican city of Ciudad Juárez where people cross the border bridge every day between the two cities and share the news, radio, sports, etc. In fact, it was the site of the Chamizal border dispute between the US and Mexico that was finally settled in the 1970s with territorial adjustments.
Chamizal dispute

In short, he's not Hispanic himself, but he learnt the Spanish language and acquired a Hispanic nickname as a child given where's he from (a Hispanic area bordering Mexico). 'Beto' is just shorthand for anyone with first name ending in 'berto' in Spanish or 'bert' in English, e.g., Alberto/Albert, Roberto/Robert, etc, and since his first name is Robert, he picked up Beto.

There's simply nothing wrong here with him having that nickname given those facts. I've seen people given Spanish nicknames for much less, e.g., an acquaintance from Belfast I once knew who went by the nickname 'Pablo' because his primary school mates stuck it on him because a teacher told him what his name was in Spanish and they liked it.
 

owedtojoy

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[TWEET]1060529934748315648[/TWEET]
As the CNN guy said "Welcome to Florida".

It would be a laugh if it eventually wound its way to the Supreme Court. Somehow, I doubt if a majority of the court would want to hear it. After 2000, they basically "We will never do this again"
 

Dame_Enda

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Judge appears to have rejected GOP counties attempts to avoid counting some ballots.
 

owedtojoy

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Common for Hispanics maybe.. but O'Rourke is a 100% white honkey. So why is he using a hispanic nickname, if not to try and pretend that he's latino.
No one chooses their own nickname.

Your nickname is laid on you, whether you like it or not.

You must have had a quiet, private education of privilege not to know that.

You must be really annoyed with that fake Ted Cruz, pretending to be a white guy, when he is really the sinister Eduardo Cruz, whose father killed JFK. He is even pretending he can't speak Spanish!


Eduardo Cruz, at home.
 

midlander12

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How Bill Nelson could ultimately win the recount in Florida's Senate race | Tampa Bay Times

Marc Elias, the Democrats lawyer, is arguing that the "undervote" in a county, where over 30,000 fewer votes were cast for Senate than voted otherwise, is some sign of people who intended to vote for Nelson. I think thats a bit of a long shot and similar to the "hanging/dimple/pregnant chads" argument the Gore side used in 2000.

However we dont know how many military ballots there are. They dont have to arrive until Nov 16, and traditionally they favour the GOP. Currently a 17,000 gap between both sides, so already in automatic recount territory, and if it goes within 0.25%, it legally has to be a hand recount.

Popcorn.
And wtf happened the 30,000 missing votes? This is mad stuff, 2000 all over again by the looks of it. Arizona also still not finalised either. What would this leave it at - 52/48?
 

Dame_Enda

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And wtf happened the 30,000 missing votes? This is mad stuff, 2000 all over again by the looks of it. Arizona also still not finalised either. What would this leave it at - 52/48?
Well if Arizona and Florida went Dem, then its 51 until the likely GOP win in the runoff in Mississippi on Nov 27, whereupon its 52. 53 would help overcome the awkward squad of Collins/Murkowski and probably Romney.

--
Update: looks like Rep. Peter King will narrowly hold on in NY-2.

Long Island Rep. Peter King hangs on to House seat ” barely - NY Post
 

midlander12

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Well if Arizona and Florida went Dem, then its 51 until the likely GOP win in the runoff in Mississippi on Nov 27, whereupon its 52. 53 would help overcome the awkward squad of Collins/Murkowski and probably Romney.

--
Update: looks like Rep. Peter King will narrowly hold on in NY-2.

Long Island Rep. Peter King hangs on to House seat ” barely - NY Post
I am assuming Mississippi will go GOP. New York-2 wasn't even on my radar to be honest. It was 62/38 last time so if it was close it must have been a big swing. King used to a big 'Ra head back in the day - Noraid and all that. Didn't know he was still around - he's GOP hardcore if memory serves.
 

midlander12

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[TWEET]1060586266671136769[/TWEET]
Yeah, imagine wanting to see every vote checked and counted (sure there's only 30,000 or so missing and maybe 200,000 not counted yet, nothing to see there). The cheek of him - you'd think he's just go away and accept defeat!
 

Dame_Enda

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Someone on predictit.org comments section posted these numbers for remaining votes not yet in in Arizona. I will post what the existing %s of support in each county are before these votes below are added as we dont yet know how they are voting.

Apache (prev Sinema 65.3, McSally 30.5): uncounted votes still out 4.6k
Cochise (prev McSally 59.5, Sinema 37)): uncounted votes still out 4.7k
Coconino (prev. Sinema 61.7, McSally 35): uncounted votes still out 10.6k
Gila (prev. McSally 59.6, Sinema 37.2): uncounted votes still out 900
Graham (prev. McSally 64.8, to Sinema 31.8): uncounted votes still out 700
Mohave (prev. 70% McSally): 8.5k uncounted votes still out
La Paz (prev McSally 64.2, Sinema 32.1):uncounted votes still out 600
Maricopa (prev. Sinema leads 49.4-48.6): uncounted votes still out 472k
Navajo (prev McSally 50.5-46.1): uncounted votes still out 3.9k
Pima (prev McSally 53-43): uncounted votes still out 80k
Pinal (prev 56% McSally, 41 Sinema): uncounted votes still out 37k-42k
Santa Cruz (prev. Sinema 67.9, Sinema 29.1) :uncounted votes still out 2k
Yavapai (prev McSally 60.7-36.7): uncounted votes still out 6.2k
Yuma (prev McSally 53.6%, Sinema 43.4).: uncounted votes still out 6k

Apparently of the 8500 uncounted ballots in Mohave, 1500 are Provisional ballots.
 
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O'Sullivan Bere

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What's your feeling on the midterms? Maybe you already posted, but I haven't seen it.

Reporting is mixed, that it's ok, nothing mega, house is lost to Trump, and he'll have problems with Legislation.

Positives were women, and muslins being elected for the first time.

Personally I was impressed with the turn out. Democracy.

Trump looked like a petulant child with CNN. Very unbecoming and undignified. No surprise though in that.
I actually worked again as an official poll worker in PA so I was counting and certifying ballots whilst everyone else was watching the initial electronic results on the telly.

The best news for me was that no spree shootings or other violence occurred in any poll precinct given the amount of wound-up nutters out there these days. Given Trump wound up his base in 2016 pre-alleging that the votes were already rigged against him at the polling places and calling for his base to act as 'poll watchers' for fraud, etc, starting in 2016 we actually had to undergo basics in emergency responses in case some wingnut attacks us.

Turnout was very high for a non-Presidential election in PA and elsewhere. PA and other places had rain but turnout was still high. Yes, a wide arrange of people got elected insofar as women and first time minorities.

Yes, Trump does what Trump does, declaring victory in the face of a clear defeat in the House and certain other races, abusing the press in stunts, threatening retaliation for any investigations of him, firing Sessions to foil Mueller, etc.

Given results in PA, I also found his BS digs against suburban GOP candidates that lost who chose to distance themselves from him in order to survice as self-serving nonsense. You couldn't find more Trumpian candidates in PA than GOP candidates Scott Wagner for Governor and Lou Barletta for Senate as 'Trump before Trump' hype artists and backed big time by Trump.

Barletta was even the GOP/FOX godfather of reviving anti-immigration demagogy. It spectacularly backfired insofar as litigation and saving the town was concerned...
Lou Barletta - Mayor of Hazleton - Immigration ordinance, lawsuit and financial distress
How Latinos are saving this former Pennsylvania mining town - CNN Money
but it's made Trump and Barletta a tag team effort.

Both Wagner and Barletta lost in a landslide using Trumpian tactics. PA was a key pickup for Trump, but the results show that PA has moved back into Dem-favourable territory again. The GOP got crushed in the Philly suburbs, including at the state legislative level. The GOP had controlled populated Philly suburban counties like Chester and Delaware at the state and local level since the US Civil War. Almost all state GOP politicians lost there.

The Trump brand kept predictable control of rural GOP areas that were going to vote GOP anyway as they always did. A smidgen of 'Blue Dog' Dems in the reddest areas in the state level lost, and there was one GOP US House pickup in a now newly redistricted solid red area. None of that comes close to making up for the overall losses. In rural areas, the Dems increased their numbers and they added to the Dems' statewide election sweeps though at the Governor and Senate level.

This pattern seems similar by reports in other Rust Belt states that Trump won by a thread to hand him the Presidency. If this pattern holds, he has no path to win again in 2020.
 

midlander12

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It's hard to see how this wasn't a good night for the Democrats, my point all along was that this was to be expected.

The Democrats retook the House with something like an additional 33+ seats for themselves, which will give them a very workable majority. The Democrats also picked up seven Governorships and if they can take Georgia that goes up to 8, a great performance and it encompasses many regions of the US from Maine in New England to Nevada in the West but also around the Great Lakes, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois and the surprise result in Kansas.

That said, with a couple or faces to be decided, the Democrats have shrunk their Senate majority. The GOP will likely hold Arizona and should win the run off in Mississippi. This should give the GOP a lot of room for confirming judicial and Cabinet nominees if a Senator or two goes wobbly or gets flakey. Sure the Democrats came close to taking a Texas Senate seat but just prevailed more narrowly than anticipated in states like Montana and West Virginia. Additionally, these gains make it harder for the Democrats to retake the Senate in 2020. Chuck Schumer is leading a reduced Senate minority and there maybe as much as a quarter of them running for President in 2020. Schumer will feel like he is herding cats over the next 18 months.

The GOP also kept two key Governorships in Iowa and New Hampshire, two early primary states and key swing states. They also kept the Governorship in Florida, a swing state critical to any GOP nominee. As far as I know, there now isn't a single statewide elected Democrat in Florida.

Of course this is not the tremendous success Trump thinks it was but there was some bright spots for the party to be sure.
First of all, it's important to concede that Trump still has a path to reelection - the predictable narrow one he trod last time. Certainly he still has good chances of holding Florida (which was as tight as it could be), Ohio (a disaster for the Dems on Tues except for the Senate race), Iowa (where the GOP retained the Governorship though lost 2 House seats), N Carolina (no Dem gains in House), Wisconsin (where the Dems swept the Senate race but only scraped the Governorship and failed to gain any House seats), and maybe Michigan (where the Dems took the governorship and 2 House seats but might have expected better margins) and also Maine 2 (deadlocked as we speak). Pennsylvania seems to me to be blown out of the water for him. (OK, maybe he might pick up Minnesota instead but I can't see it, frankly).

After that, where does he go? By contrast, the Dems will challenge in all the above, and also in Georgia, Arizona and Texas (OK, none of these may flip but these would not have been even on the map in past elections).

At the moment, the Dems look to have picked up about 37 seats with Maine-2 and one or two others still undecided. So they actually came in at the middle rather than the lower range of their projected pickups. Certainly there were some big disappointments (e.g. N Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin in particular and Florida and California could have been better) but it was far from the complete flop that some were spinning last night.

On the Governorships, Florida, Iowa and Ohio were big disappointments though it seems the former may not be over yet. Still, the Dems are back from virtual annihilation at local level and can at least call themselves a national party again.

The Senate - well, it's not like Missouri, N Dakota and Indiana will be featuring on the next presidential map. Arizona and Nevada will, though.

And then, there was Agent Orange's bravura performance yesterday, reminding us what it's all about......
 

Dame_Enda

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Beto results compared to Clinton 2016.

[TWEET]1060406110451056641[/TWEET]


 

Telstar 62

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Hey liberals, do you notice that when conservatives lose races we don’t riot, scream, smash windows,
burn cars, assault people, or need days off work?

It’s amazing how mature and civil conservatives are.

Please remember this and take note when we get Trump re-elected in 2020...

- Charlie Kirk.
 

Dame_Enda

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[TWEET]1060575611868114944[/TWEET]

This was apparently in Broward County, which is a Democratic stronghold in Florida.
 

owedtojoy

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Why would he predict victory unless there’s some sort of systematic error going on here?
Hey, this is Florida, the US electoral equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle.

Votes go in ..... but they may never come out.
 
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