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2019 Local Elections Dublin Mid West

DMW19

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Joined
Apr 29, 2019
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20
With a few threads looking at the Local Elections in the different constituencies I thought I would start one for my own area – Dublin Mid West.
Here is the background and my thoughts at this early stage in the contest.

The Dublin Mid West constituency is covered by 3 Local Elections Area for 2019. In 2014 it consisted of just 2 wards – Clondalkin and Lucan each returning 8 representatives. This time the constituency has been altered to 3 wards with 17 seats. Clondalkin goes from 8 seats to 7 seats, Lucan from 8 seats to 5 seats and the new ward, Palmerstown Fonthill also has 5 seats. This new ward comprises of North Clondalkin from the existing Clondalkin ward and Palmerstown and South East Lucan from the current Lucan ward.

In 2014 Fine Gael took 4 seats (Kenneth Egan and Emer Higgins in Clondalkin, Vicky Casserly and William Lavelle in Lucan), Sinn Fein won 3 seats (Eoin O Broin and Jonathan Graham in Clondalkin, Danny O’Brien in Lucan), Fianna Fail secured 2 seats (Trevor Gilligan in Clondalkin and Ed O’Brien in Lucan), People Befort Profit also took 2 seats (Gino Kenny in Clondalkin and Ruth Nolan in Lucan). :abour won a single seat with Breda Bonner in Clondalkin with the 4 remaining seats going to Independents – Francis Timmons in Clondalkin and Guss O’Connell, Paul Gogarty and Liona O’Toole in Lucan.


Clondalkin (7 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Cllr Kenneth Egan, Cllr Emer Higgins; Fianna Fail: Cllr Trevor Gilligan, Cathal O’Donoghue; Sinn Fein: William Carey, Lisa Kinsella Colman; Labour: Robert Dowds; People Before Profit: Kevin Creagh; Green Party: Peter Cavanagh; Renua: Amanda Gaffney; Independents: Cllr Francis Timmons, Shakeel Jeeroburkan

As an 8 seater this ward returned 2 Sinn Fein and 2 Fine Gael representatives with 1 each for Fianna Fail, Labour, People Before Profit and 1 Independent.

Sinn Fein easily topped the poll in 2014 with 37% of the first preference vote. The party had underestimated its local support in 2014 and only ran 2 candidates. With well over 3 quotas the party lost out on a definite3rd seat and could even have been in the running for a 4th. This time out their vote will likely be down as they have lost their North Clondalkin stronghold to the new Palmerstown Fonthill constituency. However even allowing for that and the loss of a seat in the ward, the party should hit the 25% of first preference vote required to retain 2 seats as they are again running just 2 candidates. Both are newcomers to local politics as their remaining sitting councillor is running in the new Palmerstown Fonthill ward while their other councillor elected in 2014 resigned due to an internal row and has recently joined Fianna Fail.

Last time out Fine Gael also took 2 seats but in contrast to Sinn Fein secured just 16% of the vote. With the subsequent rise in the Fine Gael vote and the retention of their most concentrated areas of support, the assumption should be that both outgoing councillors will be returned I believe there is a chance that Kenneth Egan may be vulnerable. He and Emer Higgins polled similar levels of support and ended up taking the final 2 seats last time out. Once again Emer Higgins is the only significant candidate from the villages part of the constituency and the former PD has increased her profile hugely since being adopted as a FG candidate for the next General Election. Kenneth Egan has profile but is not perceived as being active as a local councillor. He should still make it back but I would ecpect him to be well behind Emer Higgins this time around.

Fianna Fail’s Trevor Gilligan was elected easily on the first count in 2014. He is popular locally but was greatly helped in 2014 by the late withdrawl of the 2nd Fianna Fail candidate leaving him as the sole party candidate. He is based on the edge of Clondalkin village and the new boundaries could impact his vote slightly. In the first week of the campaign it has been noticed that he is using the same posters as from the last election. Many still have the “thank you” sticker applied from after his victory 5 years ago. Fianna Fail have a 2nd Clondalkin village based candidate in Cathal O’Donoghue. He seems very much in the mould of local TD John Curran and has a strong record of community involvement. On a good day and with this mix of candidates Fianna Fail could threaten for a second seat but it is probably more likely that they will just retain one. Trevor Gilligan has survived tough challenges in the past but will feel less than safe from the challenge of his running mate.

Labour’s outgoing councillor, former school principal Brda Bonner has decided to retire from politics but the party has drafted in former TD Robert Dowds to run for his former seat. Dowds is very well regarded locally and across all parties and I believe he will easily retain the party seat. He will also be assisted by the lack of a Social democrats candidate in the area.

Local People Before Profit TD Gino Kenny was first elected to South Dublin County Council in this ward in 2014 before winning his Dail seat. His co-optee has moved to the Palmerstown Fonthill constituency and the party is running local activist Kevin Creagh. Kenny was elected on the first count in 2014 but the party has lost much of its support base to the neighbouring area in the constituency boundary review. Creagh will poll respectably but PBP probably peaked in support terms in 2014 so it is hard to see him retaining this seat. However, if Sinn Fein poll above 25% and have transfers to be distributed this could allow Creagh to come through.

Independent Councillor Francis Timmons was elected after polling less than 5% in 2014. Je was a significant beneficiary of the available Sinn Fein transfers and actually managed to take the 5th seat ahead of both Fine Gael and the Labour candidate. He has been active locally and polled credibly in the General Election so should be on course to increase his first preference vote and retain his seat.

The Green Party candidate here is local man Peter Cavanagh. They did not contest this area in either the last General or Local Elections so his main task will be to start rebuilding the party here. Renua’s candidate is Amanda Gaffney.

Prediction: 2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 LB, 1 IND
Challenging: FF and PBP at expense of IND and FG
 


DMW19

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Apr 29, 2019
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Lucan (5 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Cllr Vicky Casserly, Caroline Brady; Fianna Fail: Cllr Ed O’Brien, Catriona McClean; Sinn Fein: Derren O’Bradaigh; Labour: Joanna Tuffy; People Before Profit: Kelly Marie Sweeney; Social Democrats: Anne Marie McNally; Green Party: Vanessa Mulhall; Renua: Howard Hughes; Independents: Cllr Paul Gogarty. Cllr Liona O’Toole

As an 8 seater this ward returned 2 Fine Gael representatives with 1 each for Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein ad people before Profit with 3 Independents completing the line up on South Dublin County Council. Lucan was one of the few areas in Dublin in 2014 where the “Big 4 parties” secured less than 50% of the first preference vote.

Interestingly in Lucan none of the top 3 performers in 2014 will feature on the ballot paper in 2019.
Fine Gael were the largest party here in 2014 securing 20% of the vote ad 2 seats. But that was in an 8 seater. To secure 2 seats in a 5 seater the party would need at least 25% of first preference votes to come close to the 33% required to comfortably retain 2 seats. With the departure from local politics of previous leading vote getter, William Lavelle, this may be too much to achieve, notwithstanding the general rise in the party’s fortunes. Had previous TD and local poll topper Derek Keating stood in this area this would have been achievable but the current weaker line up means that this is very much in doubt. One thing is sure however. Outgoing councillor Vicky Casserly will retain her seat and her running mate, Caroline Brady, will be pushing for a second party seat.

I am certain that outgoing Independent councillor and former Green Party TD, Paul Gogarty, will retain his seat. He stood as an Independent Alliance candidate at the last General Election but has now returned to full Independent status and was the highest vote getter in 2014 among candidates contesting this area in 2019. So f**k you Councillor Gogarty will be back.

Fianna Fail have struggled in the Lucan area since the days when the late Liam Lawlor ruled supreme. In 2014 Ed O’Brien made it through with a combined party vote of 9%. With the same 2 candidate party strategy as 2014 he will be hoping to repeat this feat. It will be far from easy as the reduction from 8 seats to 5 seats will make it hard to achieve. To his advantage will be the redrawing of the boundaries which will give old Lucan a bigger influence on the outcome.

Labour also had a 2 candidate strategy on 2014 but on a bad day for the party secured only 7% of the vote. Former TD and councillor Joanna Tuffy returns as the party standard bearer. Her own and her family’s track record may just be enough to secure a gain for the Labour Party in this tightly contested election area. She will also face a significant challenge from the Social Democrats contesting their first Local Elections.

The Social Democrats are fielding former General Election candidate Anne Marie McNally in this area and have high hopes for her to take a seat. This is the only ward they have decided to contest in Dublin Mid West so it is crucial they perform well here. The image of both the party and the candidate is strong, fresh and vibrant and the party is clearly identified with liberal values that may appeal in this area. She also outpolled the aforementioned Keating, Gogarty and Tuffy in the 2016 General Election so I believe that the chances of a win here are high.

Sinn Fein polled 13% of the vote here in 2014 and took a seat here but the sitting councillor has followed the party’s strongest area in this constituency to Palmerstown Fonthill. The party vote may well drop and the party will have a fight on its hand to retain the seat with newcomer Derren O’Bradaigh. A lot will depend on the performance of the other left wing candidates.

Ruth Nolan took 5% of the vote here in 2014 as a People Before Profit candidate but secured impressive transfers and secured the 5th seat. With the general political climate and redrawn boundary her first preference vote could reduce but after splitting with PBP she is now part of the Independents 4 Change grouping which may extend her appeal. Fellow Independent Liona O’Toole won 5.5% of the first preference vote and took the final seat in 2014. She will be under pressure to retain her seat this time out.

The new PBP candidate is Kelly Marie Sweeney nut it is hard to see her securing more than a couple of percent of the vote with established former party colleague Ruth Nolan in the field. Her votes, when transferred, may actually assist Sinn Fein in getting over the line for a Council seat.

As a previous stronghold of the Green Party, new candidate Vanessa Mulhall should poll respectably but I can’t see her securing enough first preferences to mount a realistic challenge. The Renua candidate is Howard Hughes.

With the Independent and small party tradition so strong in this area it is hard to call this constituency beyond the first 2 or possibly 3 seats and I expect a very competitive contest with transfers being of crucial importance.

Prediction: 1 FG, 2 IND, 1 Soc Dem, 1 FF
Challenging: LB and SF strong challengers for the final seats


Palmerstown Fonthill (5 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Derek Keating; Fianna Fail: Cllr Jonathan graham, Shane Moynihan; Sinn Fein: Cllr Danny O’Brien, Cllr Mark Ward; Labour: David Eaton; People Before Profit: Cllr Madeline Johansson; Green Party: David Morrisson; Workers Party: David Gardiner; Independent Cllr Guss O’Connell and Alan Hayes

This is a new 5 seater ward comprising of Palmerstown and South East Lucan – areas previously part of the Lucan area and North Clondalkin transferring from the Clondalkin ward. Sinn Fein and the left wing parties would have been very strong in this area as evidenced by the transfer of no less than 3 former Sinn Fein councillors to this area along with the People Before Profit councillor from Clondalkin. In addition Guss O’Connell, the Independent councillor from Palmerstown follows his home area to this new ward. This means that 5 outgoing councillors are contesting the 5 seats available in this area.

While 3 former Sinn Fein councillors are contesting this area, only 2 are running under the party banner. Mark Ward, the outgoing Mayor, transfers from Clondalkin with Danny O’Brien transferring from Lucan. Mark Ward was co-opted to the Council to replace Eoin O’Broin following his election to the Dail. Given the strength of Sinn Fein in the area and the geographical spread of the 2 candidates I believe that they should retain both seats.

While 3 former Sinn Fein councillors are now running here, one of these, Jonathan Graham is actually contesting for Fianna Fail. In 2014 he was seen as a rising start in his former party as a young Trinity graduate from North Clondalkin. However a well documented row with the local TD about a perceived low work rate led to a split from his former party and he has recently joined the ranks of Fianna Fail. A further complication is that Fianna Fail had already selected Shane Moynihan to contest this ward and he had been working with local TD, John Curran, to build a base in the area. Up until 2007 Fianna Fail would have been looking at the prospect of securing 2 seats in an area like this but the political landscape has changed and winning a seat here would be a very good result for the party. There is a prospect that a split vote could deprive the party of a seat here. No doubt Graham has looked at the situation of fellow former Clondalkin Sinn Fein councillor who had a similar falling out with the party prior to the 2014 election and ran as an Independent in the Clondalkin ward as an Independent in 2014 and polled poorly and lost his seat despite the availability of over a quota of Sinn Fein transfers.

This is a tough area for Fine Gael but they have drafted in former TD and previous Lucan area poll topper as their candidate. Keating lost his Dail seat in the Fine Gael collapse of 2016 but is a phenomenal Local Elections vote getter. This is not his home area though and he will have a fight on his hand to return to South Dublin County Council.

Independent councillor, Guss O’Connell, has been the king of local politics in Palmerstown for many years and now with Palmerstown being a key focus of this new local election area I think there is no doubt that the people of Palmerstown will be getting on the bus with Guss, as his previous local election slogans have suggested, once again.

The other outgoing councillor is Madeline Johansson. She was co-opted to fill the Clondalkin seat vacated by Gino Kenny on his election to the Dail. She has moved to this new ward to focus on the area of strongest support for the PBP cause. Given a strong Sinn Fein presence it will be a challenge for her to retain her seat but not impossible. As it currently stands she is the only credible female candidate and will be well positioned to tap into a perceived demand for progressive female politicians in the aftermath of social liberalisation which has been a significant element of the PBP agenda.

The Labour candidate is David Eaton who is Palmerstown based and has an impressive background and agenda but it is hard to see him challenging for a seat in the area on this occasion. The Green Party are running David Morrisson while the Workers Party has David Gardiner as their standard bearer in the field. Independent Alan Hayes has also declared as a candidate for this area.
.

Prediction: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 PBP
Challenging: FF making a strong challenge for either the PBP or FG seat.


OVERALL PREDICTION

So overall my final prediction would be:

Fine Gael 4 no change (range 4-5); Sinn Fein 4 up 1 (range 4-5); Fianna Fail 2 no change (range 2-4); Labour 1 no change (range 1-2); Social Democrats 1 up 1 (range 0-1), People Before Profit 1 down 1 (range 0-2); Independents 4 no change (range 2-4)

Would love to hear other opinions and predictions of the likely outcomes here.
 

Ptown Shinner

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May 9, 2019
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Very interesting and detailed post. I just thought I'd throw my two cents in. I'll follow the same format as yourself. Hope more willing to chip in with comments especially some people from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. FG people in my parish (Palmerstown) talking about a constituency poll showing us struggling. Not my feeling from what I'm hearing on the trail. I will share the top results of the FG poll (shared with me by a solid blue in P'town)

Lucan (5 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Cllr Vicky Casserly, Caroline Brady; Fianna Fail: Cllr Ed O’Brien, Catriona McClean; Sinn Fein: Derren O’Bradaigh; Labour: Joanna Tuffy; People Before Profit: Kelly Marie Sweeney; Social Democrats: Anne Marie McNally; Green Party: Vanessa Mulhall; Renua: Howard Hughes; Independents: Cllr Paul Gogarty. Cllr Liona O’Toole

I would broadly agree with your prediction of 1 FG, 2 IND (although think an Independent seat could go to Labour), 1 Soc Dem but I don't see a seat here for Fianna Fáil.

They struggled to win a seat in an 8 seater with approximately 9% of the vote in 2014. The second Fine Gael candidate Caroline Brady will get votes in what is O'Brien's traditionally strong area (Lucan Village+Dodsboro). The second Fianna Fáil candidate isn't at the races and this will harm O'Brien in the race for the final seat. While the new boundaries haven't helped us, I think the final seat will between our man O'Bradaigh and Caroline Brady, with the left transfer just swinging the seat our way.

My call for Lucan: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Independent (Gogarty) and 1 Social Democrat

Palmerstown Fonthill (5 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Derek Keating; Fianna Fail: Cllr Jonathan graham, Shane Moynihan; Sinn Fein: Cllr Danny O’Brien, Cllr Mark Ward; Labour: David Eaton; People Before Profit: Cllr Madeline Johansson; Green Party: David Morrisson; Workers Party: David Gardiner; Independent Cllr Guss O’Connell and Alan Hayes

This is probably our strongest area. Our North Clondalkin base will see us elect Cllr Mark Ward on the first count and his surplus will bring one of the hardest workers in politics, Cllr Danny O'Brien. Paul Gogarty on the basis of what I've heard (and the blues poll) will take the third seat on the basis of a decent base in the Lucan part of the LEA and a decent following in Palmerstown. I actually think on a good day we might have enough for 3 but with only 2 candidates we will have to make do with being king of the castle. The fourth seat will go to Fianna Fail with Shane Monihan having a big enough vote to keep him ahead of Gussie O'Connell who will take the last seat ahead of Derek Keating once the rest of the P'town candidates (Gardiner, Eaton, Dunne and Hayes) are eliminated. If Gussie has a bad day, unlikely, then Derek Keayting could take the last seat. Unlikely though as he will struggle for transfers unlike Guss.

Watch out for Jonathan Graham's (formerly of our parish) who will struggle to get over 500 votes. I won't say anything nasty about Jonathan but people will soon see why we were so unhappy with him. Votes don't just appear, you have to work for them.

Madeline Johansson will lose the seat for PBPA and with Gino rumored not to be running in GE then it could be a very bad few months for our friends in PBPA.

My call for Palmerstown-Fonthill: 2 SF, 1 FF, 2 Independent (Gogarty and Gussie) and 1 Social Democrat

Clondalkin (7 seats)
Candidates:
Fine Gael: Cllr Kenneth Egan, Cllr Emer Higgins; Fianna Fail: Cllr Trevor Gilligan, Cathal O’Donoghue; Sinn Fein: William Carey, Lisa Kinsella Colman; Labour: Robert Dowds; People Before Profit: Kevin Creagh; Green Party: Peter Cavanagh; Renua: Amanda Gaffney; Independents: Cllr Francis Timmons, Shakeel Jeeroburkan

Like you said, we underestimated our support here in 2014. I'll never forget the feeling of elation yet frustration while tallying but still any day you get 38% of the vote is a very good day. We will comfortably hold two seats here even allowing for the new boundaries and would wager you that our vote will be higher than 25%. Closer to 29%.

I think the 3rd seat will go to Robert Dowds. A proven vote getter and , as you say, very popular in Clondalkin. The 4th seat will got Emer Higgins who should do better than in 2014. 5th and with a much reduced vote will be Cllr Trevor Gilligan. 6th will be Cllr Kenny Egan with Cllr Francis Timmins taking the final seat. That said, I can see a scenario where Timmins takes the 6th and Egan the 7th, and finals seat.

My call for Clondalkin: 2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Labour, 1 Independent

Finally this much talked about FG poll (as mentioned in Southside people). It has the following (totals)

SF: 4 SEATS ( Ward, Carey, Kinsella Colman, O'Brien) (TOP DOGS AGAIN)

INDEPENDENTS: 3 SEATS (GOGARTY, GUSSIE, TIMMINS)

FG: 3 SEATS (Egan, Higgins, and Casserly)

FF: 3 SEATS (Monihan, O'BRIEN and Gilligan)

LABOUR: 2 SEATS (Tuffy and Dowds)

SOCIAL DEMOCRATS: 1 SEAT (MCNALLY)
 
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DMW19

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Apr 29, 2019
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Ptown Shinner

Good to read your analysis on this too - we seem to be mostly in agreement. Just a few points to add:

Clondalkin
Can only imagine how it felt to see potential seats lost due to too few candidates. In some ways a nice problem but definite wasted opportunity. With that vote there was an outside chance of even a 4th seat never mind the 3rd.


I would be thinking 27/28% for SF this time. Didn't say too much about them as just think the seats are pretty much certain but that means that there would be a minimal number of transfers not that SF voters tend to transfer as heavily as others.

Have to say got canvassed by the SF candidate team and wasn't overly impressed. The candidate profile says he joined SF in 1979 in Balllyfermot and came across as very a much an old style Sinn Feiner not a new Mary Lou apostle but got active again for Repeal the 8th. Just seems a bit odd starting a political career age 60 and not having ran before. He is village based though and clearly there is vote management going on. Still think SF will easily take the 2 seats.

You don't give the second FF any chance either of fighting for the last seat or replacing Trevor Gilligan?

I think the most interesting thing here during the campaign has been the emergence of another Independent - Eoin O'Broin - on an international, socialist eco ticket. Postering is good, leaflet has been the best I have seen so far quality and production wise. According to himself he seems to be involved in every local group known to man. He seems to be involved in most of the same groups as Francis Timmons and more. With the name and a somewhat similar appearance to the "real" Eoin O'Broin I think he could
do well and possibly affect Timmons.

Lucan
Agree that this is very hard to call especially after the first 3 seats and will be all down to transfers and order of elimination. I think Tuffy could just pull it off as well somewhat against the odds.

I agree that FF have probably made it harder to keep the seat with the 2 candidates and was surprised they added the 2nd candidate. Looking across the constituency though it would have looked very much like a "Youngish Lads" slate if they just had the other 5. I believe that O'Brien will have to stay ahead of at the very least the second FG and the SF candidate to have a hope of scoring some transfers as the counts go on and probably both.

I would have thought with the boundary redraw and the slight growth in FF support and static or slight reduction in SF support that FF would out poll SF in Lucan but the 2 candidate strategy weakens the chances of a seat in my opinion.

am presuming Caroline Brady is the daughter of former Lucan councillor Peter Brady?

For the 2nd Independent seat challenge I assume you are going with Liona O'Toole over Ruth Nolan?


Palmerstown Fonthill
Obviously your home base so bow to your knowlwdge here. Agree with you that the 2 SF seats seem guaranteed - would there really be a chance of a 3rd - can't see that. That would need 50% of th etotal vote in a 5 seater.

You are giving Shane Moynihan a better chance than me. I believe I have heard the name before but I don't know why. Is he that strong in Palmerstown.

I am surprised at the Jonathan Graham situation too especially if Shane Moynihan is stronger than I thought. There is only a chance of 1 FF seat here and this risks splitting the vote. Given he only went to FF so close to the election it strikes me as a bit of a Mark Durjam type situation - annoy another party.

I would have thought Derek and Guss would have been a bit stronger than you make out especially Guss who easily got in in a Lucan 4 seater.

And last point your analysis has Paul Gogarty winning 2 seats - entirely plausible given the circumstances but would be a major talking point and seems cynical to me. Is there a deal already out there on a co-option or how is he playing it in the campaign or do people even care/know about the tactic?
 

Ptown Shinner

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That's very interesting about O Broin. I didn't realise he was as embedded in the local community. I'm going to read up more about him. Not ideal for us that his name is EOB.

Yes Caroline is Peter's daughter. I think the FG ticket is considerably weaker without Lavelle but she's well known locally. I must say I would have Liona ahead of Ruth just on the basis of her local work and she's seen as 'more lucan' than Ruth. Ruth is a shrewd candidate though. Lucan is shaping up to be a very interesting race. Anne-Marie is obviously very ambitious and the Soc Dems are running a very good campaign. I see your point about adding a woman to their ticket, but I don't think the FF vote has increased in Lucan to the extent that they can be adding a candidate. Running two candidates while working off 8-9%, on a good day 11%, is the best way to lose a seat. Fine Gael should have run Keating in the village and asked Casserly to move. She'd have seen off Moynihan in P'town and Fonthill and kept her seat. Keating would have taken a seat in Lucan. Both FF and FG selection decisions are baffling - it's brilliant :):)

Giving Moynihan the 4th seat on the basis on what I've heard from others and my wife has been canvassed by him twice and put in a few newsletters (obviously won't get a vote from us but the only candidate to darken our door). Presume he must be doing the same in Lucan if he's putting that effort into Palmerstown. Also the FG poll was very accurate in 2014 albeit with different boundaries which makes it harder to call.

You're right it is a cynical move by Gogo but we don't mention on our sweeps because it will only get him sympathy. He's also not competition for us. Co-option not an option AFAIK. Eoin has advised us that the last candidate eliminated will be given the seat.

Interestingly enough I've been hearing good things about David Eaton (Labour). Could he be a surprise package given Labour's recent uptick in the polls (have no idea how or why that's happenign!)? Gussie and Davey Gardiner should hoover up the P'town vote to stop him.

Incidentally I think way too many candidates spent time in Palmerstown. Our lads do one sweep to motivate our own because the majority of people here will only vote for a born and bread Palmerstown woman or man. I've seen this for 20 years and still don't know why they waste their time. Watch the tallies!

Have you heard any other local intelligence? Do pop over on the count day and have a chat.
 

DMW19

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Apr 29, 2019
Messages
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Gogarty situation is very interesting.


Here in Clondalkin the only thing I have heard is FG worried about second seat with Kenneth Egan.

Higgins should have a surplus but will it go to him. I am right beside his home estate and dont think I have gotten anything in from him in his own right in the past 5 years. Dont think he has been active at all.

Here I reckon it will be approx SF 27 FG 22 but uneven split FF 17 LB 11 PBP 5 GP 1 IND 16. Higgins to top poll.

Agree that FF and FG candudate strategues arent ideal for them.

Who do you reckon will top the poll in each of theLEAs? Think it will be Casserly in Lucan with Gogarty close . Presume it can only really be your man Ward in Palmerstown Fonthill
 

Ptown Shinner

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Topping the poll:

Lucan: Casserly but Gogarty is running very, very well.

Palmerstown-Fonthill: Mark Ward with a huge vote (We've a BIG vote in this area and have taken 95% of the Graham vote :)

Clondalkin: Emer Higgins

That's very interesting about Kenneth Egan. I actually expected him to stand down, his heart doesn't seem in it. There's a few under pressure across the LEA's. Ruth Nolan is toast by all accounts and is not knocking on doors. There are a few rumours saying Trevor Gilligan is in trouble in Clondalkin but that would surprise me. Likewise our people in Lucan say Ed O'Brien will struggle. FF vote in Lucan LEA could drop under 8% if that's the case.

3 of the most competitive races in the country. Any changes to your predictions?
 

PL2015

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Feb 26, 2015
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686
While not living in this constituency, I've enjoyed the informed discussion and I pass through the constituency a bit so here's my tuppence.

Lucan (5 seats) :
With the reduction of seats, the quota will be around 16.66%. Fine Gael will miss William Lavelle and one seat seems their lot this time round with Vicki Casserly destined to return.

Ed O'Brien is no guarantee to return and between him and McClean last time out, they only polled over 8.5% but I think he will scrape in.

Paul Gogarty is a dead-cert to return as an Independent councillor while Liona O'Toole may struggle a bit more but due to PBP having a new candidate here in Kelly Marie Sweeney, I reckon PBP will lose their seat which may benefit O'Toole.

The new boundaries don't seem to be great for Sinn Fein in the area but Derren O'Bradaigh does have a chance but Joanna Tuffy is a good candidate for Labour to run. I think there's one seat here for either O'Bradaigh, Tuffy and O'Toole.

Social Democrats have Anne-Marie McNally who polled really well in the 2016 GE and I am confident in her picking up a seat here.

Predictions :
FG - 1 (Casserly)
FF - 1 (O'Brien)
SD - 1 (McNally)
SF - 1 (O'Bradaigh)
Ind - 1 (Gogarty)

Challenging :
Tuffy and O'Toole for that SF seat while I am not overally confident in O'Brien.



Palmerstown-Fonthill (5 seats) :
This seems to be an area ripe for Sinn Féin to easily return both Mark Ward and Danny O'Brien who will be elected early on. Guss O'Connell is going for his 4th election in a row and these new boundaries seem to be ideal for him so that's the third seat sorted.

After that, it gets interesting, I think Keating will get back in FG but will FF two-candidate strategy come back to hurt them, Graham's vote will e partiulalry interesting to seee if he has much of a personal vote. Labour and Greens have candidates here as do PBP with Madeline Johansson who will probably be the strongest of the three and one of them may push close for a seat.

Predictions :
SF - 2 (Ward and O'Brien)
FG - 1 (Keating)
FF - 1 (Graham)
Ind - 1 (O'Connell)

Challenging :
Johansson (PBP) maybe at the expense of FF.


Clondalkin (7 seats) :
This could prove to be a very interesting LEA, there's a few certainties but it could end up being very tight.

Sinn Féin are all but sure of securing two seats with the quota being 12.5% so William Carey and Lisa Kinsella-Colman should secure election. Fine Gael may struggle to hold on to their two though, Emer Higgins will probably poll stronger this time but Kenny Egan may poll less and with one less seat, he could be in trouble.

Trevor Gilligan is a dead cert to hold on to his seat for FF but I think a second seat isn't going to happen this time round. Robert Dowds was a great choice by Labour to run here and he should hold the party seat.

After that, it gets interesting. Timmons' transfers last time were great but he may need a stronger FPV this time so he isn't eliminated earlier on. I don't think PBP will be wiped out across the constituency so I'll go with Kevin Creagh as the one to take the seat. The Greens aren't strong enough to contend here.

Predictions :
SF - 2 (Carey and Kinsella-Colman)
FG - 2 (Higgins and Egan)
FF - 1 (Gilligan)
Lab - 1 (Dowds)
PBP - 1 (Creagh)

Challenging :
Timmons (IND) for either Creagh or Egan's seat.
 

DMW19

Member
Joined
Apr 29, 2019
Messages
20
PL2015

Nice to have a new voice in the echo chamber. Our predictions aren't a million miles off.

Clondalkin is the one I know best. I can't really see PBP holding on here, certainly if they don't in Palmerstown Fonthill but could be wrong. There is also an Independents 4 Change candidate here who may help a bit with transfers and possibly a few SF stray transfers but think either serious Independent may do as well if not better from these than the PBP candidate.

I'm interested in you saying Gilligan is a dead cert. I expect him to win alright and he is a proven vote winner alright but but but...

I know him a bit and he is a nice guy and the longest serving councillor in the area nut my perception of his campaign is confused. I may be thinking too much but there are many odd features.

Like I mentioned before the old posters with the post election Thank You still on them. In the local freesheet he has an ad. He picks out 3 points - local, longest serving councillor and bizarrely 100s of documents signed (from his role as a PC). That just seems an odd thing to highlight. No mention of his running mate or even his party.

The only thing I have received from him through the door was a rambling 2 page smallish print black and white photo copy sheet kicking off with a SORRY I MISSED YOU (hmmm...didn;t hear the bell).I read it all because I am sad like that and the content was mixed and a bit confused dealing with issues in Rathcoole, Newcastle and Clondalkin all mixed together. If you are just photcopying or printing an A4 page it would be much more readable and focused just to cover the items relevant to each village separately. It also asked people to canvass for him. It just seemed it was the one thing he planned on doing for the whole election and that was it. He is calling himself Trev and again just a tiny FF logo and in tiny print asking for support for C O'Donoghue and B Andrews - not even their full names.

In contrast his running mate leaflet and then canvass card was in FF standard design format this time and prominently mentioned Trevor and Barry Andrews and had reasonable party ID.

Now Trevor might be playing the anti politician politician type character but there is a reasonable FF vote in Clondalkin and I am wondering if that vote might switch initially to the other party candidate and as a resukt cause Trev problems. He was a solo candidate last time. I still expect him to be elected but for a few reasons it just seems to be a strange campaign.


Ptown Shinner

Sticking more or less with my predictions.

I am starting to think that Labour and Joanna Tuffy could pull it off in Lucan at the expense on FF from my prediction without ruling your man out.

Less likely to believe that Madeline will make it in Palmerstown Fonthill now but still find it hard to see FF making it due to the split in their vote with the 2 candidates.

In Clondallkin I am real interested to see how EOB will do in Clondalkin. As a Non Party candidate there will be no party logo on the ballot paper beside his name so I think there is a real chance that some may see him as the "real" EOB.

Only a week to go but as you say 3 competitive and hotly contested LEAs.
 

Keatingfan

Active member
Joined
May 7, 2013
Messages
219
Interesting discussion. Local polls are notoriously inaccurate, even ours, and on the ground feedback depends on who says what and where. That said, a lot of the discussion above I would concur with to an extent. Here’s my take:

Clondalkin

Emer is doing well and the addition of Saggart and Brittas will push her up further. Poll topping stuff.
Kenneth will struggle but transfers will help. FFers have one seat and let’s just say the smarter and potentially harder working candidate may not get it. It doesn’t matter who the SF candidates are. You could put a bot in and they would get elected. So two for the party - !ucky candidates.
That’s five and well-respected Robert Dowds makes six.

So one left. If I posted yesterday I would have said Timmons, but was I intrigued and appalled by that green bounce in two separate polls released today. The margin of error in those was less than usual so they appear accurate. Will it help Kavanagh? I think it may boost him a bit and put him very close to Timmons in which case the other EOB’s transfers will come into play, which may favour Kavanagh tbh. I’m getting a lot of young people talking about climate change in my canvassing patch but the hippy frog party are not on particularly fertile ground here. Even if Kavanagh makes it for the last seat on a green blip, they won’t feature in any GE in DMW any time soon without a naturally big vote getter to sail on the green wave. Climate change is bigger than that and Richard Bruton is taking the challenge seriously. But the temporary boost might give the greens their only DMW seat. This may be just a passing fad after all but enough for a 7-seater Clondalkin LEA lol.

2FG 2SF 1FF 1LAB 1GRN


Palmerstown-Fonthill

The hardest LEA with loads of outgoing Cllrs, a very popular Indo and a former TD. It’s going to be carnage. The big casualties will be Nolan and Johansson. Go-Go’s antics here seem to be geared towards propping up O’Connell and keeping his name out there for the general so he won’t feature in the top 5 tbh. But Alan Hayes will. He’s very much in the mould of the Derek Keating of old: red hair, beard, claims to be doing EVERYTHING and with locals and some in Lucan swallowing his line of having done more voluntary work than Mother Theresa he will end up in the top 5 on the first count.

Derek himself is a shadow of the PR machine he used to be and seems to be strolling around rather than energetically mining his strong residual vote, which is why we made the right decision to go for Caroline in Lucan.

Don’t need to even mention SF here. Done deal. Moynihan, though, is gunning his way through the LEA putting in huge resources and sweeping each area multiple times. He almost made it in 2009 and some people remember him. He has yet to actually do anything of note politically but since when did that stop a well oiled party machine.

2SF 1 O’Connell 1FF 1Hayes (or on a good day Keating)


Lucan

Vicki will top the poll thanks to her work on disability and equality issues. But Caroline will do way better than expected thanks to the “old Lucan” vote on the Esker and village side. This will hit O’Brien and Gogarty to an extent. She lives in Doddsborough and her father is a former Cllr and manager of the local cinema for years. She will pick up votes from the Tesco side of Hillcrest and anywhere west. She will pick up unexpected votes in AGP and Sarsfield Park, Airlie Heights, Woodview etc and she will vie with Vicki in other village area estates north of the N4. I expect her to easily take the fourth seat.

Tuffy will do well but fail ultimately. Nolan will bomb this side too. O’Brien’s name is still coming up, way more than McLean so the FF vote won’t be split and should keep him in the running for the fifth seat. Gogarty will take the second or third seat but will be way behind Vicki and the 2nd-4th seats will only have 100 votes between them.

I’m not sure on McNally. Yes, she ran a great campaign in GE 2016 but that was part of a party swing and she actually did better on the Clondalkin side. She’s banking on a higher vote on the leafy side of Lucan even though she lives on the Fonthill side and can see that road from her window. The same five purple people have been out canvassing morning, noon and night, sometimes aided by Catherine Murphy, and they definitely get a medal for campaigning ability alone. But how much persuading can you do during an election campaign? I estimate only about 20% of votes shift but they shift every way. The candidate has little local nous, can’t claim the “women’s vote” in such a female heavy field and she is focusing on big ticket populist items rather than specific area concerns. That will get her some of the trendy Twitter vote but will she get the transfers over the line is the question. If the strong SF snd less strong Ruth Nolan transfers go to her she might, but a fifth place FP vote may not be enough to hold on, especially as Tuffy transfers will go to people seen as locals not blow-ins.

The one slipping in unnoticed by everyone is O’Toole. Not my cup of tea at all, but she’s good at the PR and photo op stunts and did Frances proud with her “celebrating women” poster event which nabbed her a few canvassers. She’s doing very well in Adamstown (low turnout admittedly), has Finnstown and Westbury sewn up and counts some of the Hillcrest RA as her supporters. Throw in another 50 park run people and 200 voters from her kids’ schools and it all adds up to a sizeable chunk. She won’t gain votes from Vicki compared to the last locals but she won’t lose any either and will take some votes that might otherwise go to Gogarty in a GE. From what I hear she is matching gormless Gogo in a voting area going from the estates off Castle Road to those off Griffeen avenue. She is less known on the village side but Gogarty’s vote is definitely being dented (which I’m surprised no one mentioned) and she will probably poll third.

Caroline will come a comfortable fourth and may rise further on transfers to outpoll O’Toole. To me she is the candidate with the best political pedigree and record of volunteerism (LDAG, St Patrick’s parade etc) but nominations were left too late for her to make progress in the newer estates.

For the fifth seat I said Ed O’Brien and I’ll stick by that. He has been an excellent councillor and the people recognise his quality and integrity (for an FFer). It all depends on whether McNally transfers above him.

2FG 1FF (or McNally) 2Ind (Gogarty/O’Toole)
 

Ptown Shinner

Member
Joined
May 9, 2019
Messages
28
Hi KeatingFan,

Interesting post. Choked a little when I read about the integrity and Fianna Fáil bit. Very interesting that you see it as a toss up between Gogarty and O'Toole in Lucan. The word on the ground (from our lads) is that Gogarty is as safe as houses in Lucan. I suppose that could be harming him.

McNally (didn't realise she lived outside the LEA) is definitely in the running for the campaign operation Gold Medal (more on this later). There seems to be no momentum behind O'Brien (FF), and I think we all agree his running mate is more a hindrance, so I just don't see a seat for O'Brien.

If O'Toole is running as well as you say then that will take a bit off Vicki C. I am biased but I really wouldn't rule out Derren.

Palmerstown-Fonthill as you say, and we all agree, is a fascinating one. We are guaranteed our two and Mark has run a brilliant campaign. I am out for Danny since 2014 and the reaction makes a nonsense of the national polls. When people write us off our loyal voters back us to the hilt so watch out for that.

The breakout one is Moynihan. I had him for the fourth seat on the basis of what I heard locally (and a FG poll) but it now looks like he will do a good bit better than this. Where his vote goes will be worth watching and could have a big impact on what happens with seats 4 and 5. I'd disagree with you about Hayes. I live in Palmerstown and I haven't seen or heard from him. The missus has only bee canvassed by (Monihan twice, Gardiner, Eaton and Guss O'Connell)

I won't repeat points I made previously about Clondalkin. There seems to be a consensus in here (and in local media) that Eoin O Broin (Independent) will do well just because of his name. People in Clondalkin are smarter than that so I still see Timmins holding that Indo seat.
 


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