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2019 Local Elections - Laois

Bill E Bunter

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Jan 14, 2011
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164
Have to confess to knowing little or nothing about the Borris Mountmellick district.
In Portarlington Graiguecullen there are 9 candidates for 6 seats. Aidan Mullins (SF) will top poll. I'd also expect Paschal McEvoy and Padraig Fleming (both FF) and Tom Mulhall (FG) to get in comfortably.
Ben Brennan, a sitting independent, should get in but Aisling Moran (FG) hoping to hold her retiring father John's seat could come under pressure. I think she'll hold on from the other FG candidate, Vivienne Phelan, who scored a massive own goal a while back with a statement about student nurse pay.
The third FF candidate Deirdre O'Connell Hopkins will struggle for votes as she is an unknown quantity and Brennan is from the FF gene pool along with McEvoy and Fleming.
There just isn't a Labour vote and Eoin Barry will struggle to avoid the wooden spoon I think.
I'll do a Portlaoise district post next.
 


PL2015

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Happy to see a thread started dedicated to Laois local elections. Portlaoise is my district and it remains as a 7-seater for this upcoming election. The three LEA's all remain the same except the transfer of the electoral district of Clash from Portlaoise to Borris-in-Ossory-Mountmellick.

Portlaoise (7 seats) :
In 2014 Fianna Fail were top dogs with 30.4% FPV which secured the return of three councillors, John Joe Fennelly, Catherine Fitzgerald and Jerry Lodge with the quota being 12.5%. Fennelly is a certainty to be re-elected, probably on the first count, as he has big local support in Abbeyleix which is the second biggest area in the LEA. Fitzgerald should get back in again as she is active in Portlaoise but Jerry Lodge sadly passed away in 2018 after 40 years as a Public Rep. Pauline Madigan was somewhat controversially co-opted on to that seat after a long line of contenders positioned themselves for the job but she has been relatively quiet since and I feel her seat is at risk. Donal Kelly is the 4th FF candidate and he missed out on the co-option, he is the CEO of Greenmills Food and if FF are to hold on to 3 seats here then he may be the more likely candidate to do it.

Fine Gael actually secured 32% FPV back in 2014 but only managed to return two councillors. Willie Aird has a massive personal vote and will likely top the poll again while Mary Sweeney has a good base around Ballyroan so I expect her to hold on also. They are running a third candidate in the form of solicitor Thomasina Connell who ran in the 2016 GE when she secured over 4,000 votes at her first attempt when she was Charlie Flanagan's running mate. She's hoping to transfer that support to this election but she does not live in this LEA which means her support must have been strong during the GE. I would certainly give her a solid chance of taking a seat here.

Sinn Féin got 17.2% of the vote and returned Caroline Dwane-Stanley who also has a strong personal vote in Portlaoise and should be comfortably re-elected. John Gormley is her running mate this time and I do not know much about the candidate. I imagine the SF support will be relatively similar and not equally distributed and Gormley will lose out.

Noel Tuohy is running for Labour again and he bucked the trend by being the only Labour candidate to gain a seat then. However, Labour do not have much support in Laois and Tuohy's vote is largely personal. His FPV was 6.6% last time and I imagine it will be around the same this time, he is no certainty to be re-elected if FF and FG vote-manage well and he is squeezed out but he should hold on.

Renua are interestingly running two candidates here, Dominic Dunne and Noel O'Rourke. Dunne joined Renua after he lost out on the FF nomination to his neighbour Pauline Madigan for both the co-option and these elections. O'Rourke was a leading No campaigner during the Abortion referendum last year and also left FF after Madigan got the co-option for Lodge's seat. They are two fairly well-known candidates and in theory a party like Renua could do decent here but I don't think they are strong enough to win a seat.

There's 4 Independents running here, Judith Preston-Grace is known locally but she started her campaign quite late which may work against her. Timothy Adejumo has the endorsement of former Mayor of Portlaoise Rotimi Adebari who lost his seat in 2014. Adejumo should poll solidly but if Adebari couldn't win in 2014 with his name recognition then Adejumo will probably struggle. I haven't heard or seen any posters about Tom Duffy while Naeem Iqbal has been running a quiet enough campaign, mainly online.

My prediction :
FG - 3 (Aird, Sweeney and Connell)
FF - 2 (Fennelly and Fitzgerald)
SF - 1 (Dwane Stanley)
Lab - 1 (Tuohy)

Challenging - FF3 (Kelly) for either FG3 or Lab
 

PL2015

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I do not know too much about the other two districts admittedly so I'll post about the two of them in one post.

Graiguecullen-Portarlington (6 seats) :
This is a very big LEA taking in Portarlington, Graiguecullen and Stradbally and large rural areas like Luggacurren.

Fianna Fail secured 34.6% of the vote in 2014 with 4 candidates and returned two candidates, Padraig Fleming and Paschal McEvoy with the quota being around 14.3%. FF3 and 4 missed out in 7th and 8th. This time it's just Fleming and McEvoy who should hold on comfortably and they are joined by Deirdre O'Connell Hopkins who I must agree with Bill E Bunter, is a relatively unknown quantity and I think will struggle here.

Fine Gael elected two councillors from 25% in 2014 with three candidates and they are running three again this time. I agree that Tom Mulhall should be comfortably returned while Aisling Moran, the aforementioned daughter of retiring John will struggle to hold on to his vote. I think Vivienne Phelan did have a good chance at the start as a strong, young female candidate but she has blown her chances with her comments on Twitter about nurses internship.

Sinn Fein are just running Aidan Mullins again who topped the poll with 14.64% last time and he should be easily returned again this time.

Labour are running Eoin Barry who reminds me of Alan Kelly a bit. They only polled 3.15% in 2014 and while I think he will improve on that, a seat seems out of the reckoning.

Ben Brennan is an Independent councillor who is running again. He got 10.53% of the vote and is gene-pool FF so I would reckon he is relatively safe.

Predictions :
FF - 2 (Fleming and McEvoy)
FG - 2 (Mulhall and Moran)
SF - 1 (Mullins)
Ind - 1 (Brennan)


Borris-in-Ossory - Mountmellick (6 seats) :
This is a busier LEA with 14 candidates and is similar in demographics to Graiguecullen-Portarlington with the biggest urban areas around Mountmellick, Rosenallis and Rathdowney but plenty of rural areas too.

Fianna Fail ran 5 candidates here back in 2014 and polled 33.75% of the vote but only returned two councillors, Paddy Bracken and Séamus McDonald. They were not too far off a third seat then and they definitely have a decent chance this time round. They are running two other candidates, former GAA President and Primary-school Principal Liam O'Neill and Declan Goode who is based around Mountmellick. It's a strong line-up and O'Neill will sweep up Trumera and surrounding areas.

Fine Gael also ran 5 candidates in 2014, polling 33.15% but also just returning two councillors, John King who topped the poll but didn't get in until the last count and David Goodwin who was 9th on the first count but made it on transfers. Michael Lalor was not elected on the last count and lost his seat. This time round, Goodwin and King are joined by Conor Bergin and Fergal Conroy. Bergin was heavily invovled in YFG while Conroy is a driving instructor. FG will be also hoping for a third seat and they do have a good geographical balance around the LEA and I foresee this being a long, close count.

Sinn Fein are running Lorna Holohan Garry, a candidate I have not heard much about. SF were in 6th after the first count in 2014 with 7.23% but they couldn't attract the transfers to hold on. I think she'll need to poll over 9% FPV to have a chance but with FF and FG gunning for three I think she will miss out.

There's a slate of Independent candidates running, two of them are sitting councillors in the form of James Kelly and Brendan Phelan. I think they will be there or there abouts again this time but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them lost out. The other Independents contesting this election are Ollie Clooney, Brian Furlong and Ger Hogan who I can't see challenging for the seats.

My predictions :
FF - 3 (Bracken, McDonald and O'Neill)
FG - 2 (King and Goodwin)
Ind - 1 (Kelly)

Challenging - FG3 and Phelan for FF3 and Kelly.
 

Bill E Bunter

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Happy to see a thread started dedicated to Laois local elections. Portlaoise is my district and it remains as a 7-seater for this upcoming election. The three LEA's all remain the same except the transfer of the electoral district of Clash from Portlaoise to Borris-in-Ossory-Mountmellick.

Portlaoise (7 seats) :
In 2014 Fianna Fail were top dogs with 30.4% FPV which secured the return of three councillors, John Joe Fennelly, Catherine Fitzgerald and Jerry Lodge with the quota being 12.5%. Fennelly is a certainty to be re-elected, probably on the first count, as he has big local support in Abbeyleix which is the second biggest area in the LEA. Fitzgerald should get back in again as she is active in Portlaoise but Jerry Lodge sadly passed away in 2018 after 40 years as a Public Rep. Pauline Madigan was somewhat controversially co-opted on to that seat after a long line of contenders positioned themselves for the job but she has been relatively quiet since and I feel her seat is at risk. Donal Kelly is the 4th FF candidate and he missed out on the co-option, he is the CEO of Greenmills Food and if FF are to hold on to 3 seats here then he may be the more likely candidate to do it.

Fine Gael actually secured 32% FPV back in 2014 but only managed to return two councillors. Willie Aird has a massive personal vote and will likely top the poll again while Mary Sweeney has a good base around Ballyroan so I expect her to hold on also. They are running a third candidate in the form of solicitor Thomasina Connell who ran in the 2016 GE when she secured over 4,000 votes at her first attempt when she was Charlie Flanagan's running mate. She's hoping to transfer that support to this election but she does not live in this LEA which means her support must have been strong during the GE. I would certainly give her a solid chance of taking a seat here.

Sinn Féin got 17.2% of the vote and returned Caroline Dwane-Stanley who also has a strong personal vote in Portlaoise and should be comfortably re-elected. John Gormley is her running mate this time and I do not know much about the candidate. I imagine the SF support will be relatively similar and not equally distributed and Gormley will lose out.

Noel Tuohy is running for Labour again and he bucked the trend by being the only Labour candidate to gain a seat then. However, Labour do not have much support in Laois and Tuohy's vote is largely personal. His FPV was 6.6% last time and I imagine it will be around the same this time, he is no certainty to be re-elected if FF and FG vote-manage well and he is squeezed out but he should hold on.

Renua are interestingly running two candidates here, Dominic Dunne and Noel O'Rourke. Dunne joined Renua after he lost out on the FF nomination to his neighbour Pauline Madigan for both the co-option and these elections. O'Rourke was a leading No campaigner during the Abortion referendum last year and also left FF after Madigan got the co-option for Lodge's seat. They are two fairly well-known candidates and in theory a party like Renua could do decent here but I don't think they are strong enough to win a seat.

There's 4 Independents running here, Judith Preston-Grace is known locally but she started her campaign quite late which may work against her. Timothy Adejumo has the endorsement of former Mayor of Portlaoise Rotimi Adebari who lost his seat in 2014. Adejumo should poll solidly but if Adebari couldn't win in 2014 with his name recognition then Adejumo will probably struggle. I haven't heard or seen any posters about Tom Duffy while Naeem Iqbal has been running a quiet enough campaign, mainly online.

My prediction :
FG - 3 (Aird, Sweeney and Connell)
FF - 2 (Fennelly and Fitzgerald)
SF - 1 (Dwane Stanley)
Lab - 1 (Tuohy)

Challenging - FF3 (Kelly) for either FG3 or Lab
Great post.
I think Connell has made a huge mistake in not running in her native Portarlington Graiguecullen area and can't see three FG seats. Aird and Sweeney certainly won't be helping her!
I'm also not sure that Madigan can hold the seat she was co-opted into.
Could be a huge fight for the last seat.
I think Noel Tuohy will hold on but this may be his last term due to his medical condition.
Renua is an interesting one. If they had run just one candidate, they might well have pulled in a conservative type vote but the two candidates is an odd decision.
I just wonder if Iqbal and Adejumo will attract a big "non national" vote and transfer to one another?
 
Last edited:

Da Optimist

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Borris in Ossory Mountmellick.
Ind cllr James Kelly will top the poll with FG cllr John King taking the second seat. Ind cllr Brendan Phelan for third seat. FF cllr Bracken is safe in 4th seat. The last two seats will be a fight with Lorna Holohan Garry SF, cllr Seamus McDonald FF, Liam o Neil FF and Cllr David Goodwin FG.
 

PL2015

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Borris-in-Ossory/Mountmellick (6 seats) Final Tally :
James Kelly (Ind) - 1,475
Paddy Bracken (FF) - 1,379
John King (FG) - 1,213
Ollie Clooney (Ind) - 1,126
Seamus McDonald (FF) - 1,079
Brendan Phelan (Ind) - 909
Conor Bergin (FG) - 906
David Goodwin (FG) - 826
Lorna Holohan-Garry (SF) - 644
Liam O'Neill (FF) - 582
Fergal Conroy (FG) - 563
Declan Goode (FF) - 523
Brian Furlong (Ind) - 317
Ger Hogan (Ind) - 204

Very interesting results here, Kelly, Bracken and King will all hold on here. McDonald will hold FF's 2nd seat with O'Neill and Goode's transfers but they came nowhere close to a 3rd seat which may disappoint them. You'd have to think Fine Gael will get a second as well, Goodwin usually does solid on transfers so he could overtake Bergin. Clooney is the big surprise here with a big FPV and a good lead on Phelan, I think Phelan may be the loser here.


Portlaoise (7 seats) Final Tally :
Willie Aird (FG) - 1,508
John Joe Fennelly (FF) - 1,470
Caroline Dwane-Stanley (SF) - 1,103
Catherine Fitzgerald (FF) - 1,103
Noel Tuohy (Lab) - 1,011
Mary Sweeney (FG) - 1,009
Naeem Iqbal (Ind) - 421
Thomasina Connell (FG) - 406
Dominic Dunne (REN) - 365
Pauline Madigan (FF) - 319
Timothy Adejumo (Ind) - 318
Donal Kelly (FF) - 314
Tom Duffy (Ind) - 143
Judith Preston-Grace (Ind) - 136
Noel O'Rourke (REN) - 124
John Gormley (SF) - 122

Quota expected to be around 1,400. Basically the first six seats sown up with two for FG, Aird and Sweeney, two for FF, Fennelly and Fitzgerald, one for Labour, Noel Tuohy whose FPV is set to increase nearly 400 votes and one for Sinn Fein, Caroline Dwane-Stanley.
After that it's going to be some dogfight. I am very surprised by the good performance of Iqbal but it's hard to see where his transfers will come from, perhaps Adejumo? Connell has a solid chance but again hard to see where her transfers will come from. FF3 does have a chance but they will need more. At this stage, Dunne might be the best chance for Renua but it's going to be a long count.


Graiguecullen-Portarlington (6 seats) Final Tally :
Padraig Fleming (FF) - 1,725
Aidan Mullins (SF) - 1,488
Tom Mulhall (FG) - 1,449
Paschal McEvoy (FF) - 1,339
Ben Brennan (Ind) - 1,233
Aisling Moran (FG) - 895
Eoin Barry (Lab) - 736
Vivienne Phelan (FG) - 531
Deirdre O'Connell-Hopkins (FF) - 337

This turned out to be fairly predictable with the quota set to be around 1,390 votes. Fleming and McEvoy certainties for FF, Mullins safe for SF, Brennan will get back in as will Mulhall for FG and he'll be joined by Aisling Moran once Phelan is eliminated. Decent showing by Eoin Barry of Labour all the same.
 

PL2015

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Portlaoise LEA (7 Seats) First Count Result : (Quota - 1,278)
Willie Aird (FG) - 1,573 ELECTED
John Joe Fennelly (FF) - 1,456 ELECTED
Caroline Dwane-Stanley (SF) - 1,210
Catherine Fitzgerald (FF) - 1,080
Noel Tuohy (Lab) - 1,041
Mary Sweeney (FG) - 1,024
Naeem Iqbal (Ind) - 454
Thomasina Connell (FG) - 437
Dominic Dunne (REN) - 379
Timothy Adejumo - 363
Donal Kelly (FF) - 331
Pauline Madigan (FF) - 326
Tom Duffy (Ind) - 154
Noel O'Rourke (REN) - 135
John Gormley (SF) - 131
Judith Preston-Grace (Ind) - 125

Quota less than predicted than in the tallies and similar to what it was in 2014 (1,299) with most candidates polling slightly higher than the tallies.

Willie Aird is after putting in a sensational fourth consecutive poll-topping performance and he increased his own vote slightly from 1,450 in 2014. He now has a surplus of 275 to be distributed in Count 2 which won't dramatically change things but Connell will go in to the 7th spot and she'll be hopeful that she can build as big of a lead as possible but Sweeney will also take some.

John-Joe Fennelly has been elected on the first count coming in 2nd place once again in a strong showing where his vote has increased from 1,374 last time out. His surplus of 178 will probably have to be distributed in Count 3 but it probably won't help Madigan and Kelly too much as Fitzgerald is still in the race while many of the votes might stay local with Sweeney.

Caroline Dwane-Stanley is after polling in 3rd place once again but not elected just yet as her FPV is down from 1,348 in 2014, she won't have to wait long once her running mate John Gormley gets eliminated then she'll be over the line but it was a very disappointing performance from Gormley overall.

The next three seats are all still sorted but may take a few counts to be filled. Fitzgerald put in a very strong showing, growing her FPV from 821 last time out to ensure she won't be in a dogfight for a seat this time around. Noel Tuohy also polled very well, his seat is safe as his FPV has gone up from 685. I feel like many of Jerry Lodge's old vote in Portlaoise may have went to Fitzgerald and Tuohy.
Mary Sweeney is also going to keep Fine Gael's second seat here, her vote is down ever so slightly from 1,037 last time but it's a rock solid performance from Sweeney.

After that, it's a battle between 5 for just one last seat. Iqbal polled surprisingly well but he is going to have to very transfer friendly as it is not immediately apparent where his votes will come from, the same has to be said for Timothy Adejumo who has done well but either of their elimination may help each other. Connell has Aird's surplus to put her into 7th but it's hard to see if she will be able to hold on to it, I think she needed her FPV to be around 100 higher to be more confident. I think Dunne still has a decent chance although O'Rourke didn't poll great so he won't get many transfers there. Fianna Fail still have a chance of holding their third seat, Kelly and Madigan polled very closely but surprisingly low and they will be embattled to win a seat.

Still all to play for and too hard to call that 7th seat, all about transfers and order of eliminations.
 

PL2015

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Borris-in-Ossory - Mountmellick LEA (6 seats) First Count Result : (Quota - 1,704)
James Kelly (Ind) - 1,517
Paddy Bracken (FF) - 1,414
John King (FG) - 1,254
Ollie Clooney (Ind) - 1,129
Seamus McDonald (FF) - 1,089
Brendan Phelan (Ind) - 931
Conor Bergin (FG) - 925
David Goodwin (FG) - 825
Lorna Holohan Garry (SF) - 649
Liam O’Neill (FF) - 575
Fergal Conroy (FG) - 559
Declan Good (FF) - 542
Brian Furlong (Ind) - 326
Ger Hogan (Ind) - 192 ELIMINATED

Again the quota is similar to 2014 (1,722) with quite a high turnout of around 58.4%.

No one elected on the first count but still a very strong poll-topping performance from Kelly, increasing his vote handsomely from 1,166 FPV last time and he will get back in during the next few counts.

Paddy Bracken is the top FFer in the LEA once again with a good performance, his vote is up from 1,051 last time and with the eliminations of Good and O'Neill, he will reach the quota. It was a disappointing performance from Fianna Fail in terms of trying to win a third seat, O'Neill polling a good bit less than I expected although their transfers will be crucial in the destination of the 6th seat.

Similarly, John King is the top FGer in this election, his vote is up slightly from 1,189 in 2014 and he will get back in although he may have to wait until the later counts.

After that, I reckon there will be another FF, FG and Independent seat. Seamus McDonald looks to have done enough for the 2nd FF seat as his vote is up from 920 so he will get in off Good and O'Neill's transfers. There's going to be a big battle for David Goodwin to hold on to his seat, his FPV is down slightly from 847 last time but he overtook running mate Michael Lalor in 2014 and he will have to do the same here, although Lalor polled 864 where as Bergin has a bigger lead with a good 925. The transfers of Fergal Conroy will be critical.
The Independent seat should be intriguing, Clooney has a big upper hand on Phelan with nearly 200 votes leadas Phelan's FPV dropped from 1,097 which he will be disappointed with.

At the moment I'd say Clooney will get the independent seat while Bergin may just stave off Goodwin for the 2nd FG seat.
 

PL2015

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Graiguecullen-Portarlington LEA (6 seats) First Count Result : (Quota - 1,447)
Padraig Fleming (FF) - 1,752 ELECTED
Aidan Mullins (SF) - 1,606 ELECTED
Tom Mulhall (FG) - 1,539 ELECTED
Paschal McEvoy (FF) - 1,410
Ben Brennan (Ind) - 1,264
Aisling Moran (FG) - 894
Eoin Barry (Lab) - 756
Vivienne Phelan (FG) - 541
Deirdre O’Connell-Hopkins (FF) - 364

Quota just slightly higher than the one forecast in the tally, and slightly below the 2014 quota of 1,510.

This turned out to be a fairly predictable LEA in the end but all credit to Padraig Fleming on topping the poll and comfortably exceeding the quota. His vote has increased massively from 1,246 last time out. His 305 surplus votes will be distributed now for the 2nd count and that should see Paschal McEvoy over the line whose vote has also massively increased from 883 FPV and he is safe.

Aidan Mullins ended up polling a nice bit better than the tallies and his Portarlington stronghold came out again to secure his seat here, his vote up slightly from 1,547 so a job well done for him.

Tom Mulhall is after having a very good election as well by getting in on the first count, his FPV up massively from 1,034 last time out.

Ben Brennan's seat is also safe now as well, his vote up from 1,112 which is a good increase and he'll be relatively transfer-friendly.

Aisling Moran is set to hold Fine Gael's second seat and her father's old seat after polling solidly, John Moran polled 906 FPV in 2014 so she has done a solid job here and should have enough considering Mulhall has a small surplus and Phelan's transfers will clear her off closest challenger, Eoin Barry. Barry has done well enough for his first time out but he'll be a couple of hundred votes short on this occasion.
 

Bill E Bunter

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That last seat dogfight in the Portlaoise area was fascinating.
Irrespective of political views (and I didn't vote in that area), it would have been interesting to see Dunne of Renua take the seat.
I though the "town" votes might transfer better to him from Madigan and Kelly with Connell not being from Portlaoise.
Very disappointing for FF to lose the third seat. Madigan seems to have been a poor choice to be (a) co-opted and (b) chosen to run both in LE and forthcoming GE.
 

Bill E Bunter

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Portarlington Graiguecullen was predictable enough although Barry polled a lot better than expected. Five years is a long wait for him for another go. I'd say he'd love another shot a bit sooner.
I'd imagine Phelan and O'Connell-Hopkins won't ever run again. Their parties will be looking for a stronger "third" candidate.
I also expect at least one Green candidate to run somewhere in Laois next time round.
 

PL2015

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Only getting around to fully reviewing the local election results now and the Laois local elections were very interesting, generally predictable but a few surprises thrown in too.

Portlaoise (7 seats) :
For Fianna Fáil, it was a very disappointing result to have lost the 'Jerry Lodge' seat after disappointing performances from both Pauline Madigan and Donal Kelly left them with 2 seats here. Their FPV actually increased from 30.4% to 31.2% but that was mainly down to Fennelly and Fitzgerald increasing their votes, Fitzgerald in particular. Fennelly's base in Abbeyleix was rock solid as he secured over 60% in two of the three Abbeyleix boxes and 57% in the other which accounted for over 800 votes while he also performed well in Raheen, Ballinakill and Knock. Fitzgerald did very well in Portlaoise, picking up the second most votes there after Aird which sealed her election. Madigan and Kelly's FPV just left them with too much to do and questions will have to be asked of Madigan's GE selection and I am sure we will see new faces for FF on the ballot in 2024.

Fine Gael were the big winners here by flipping the FF seat to become the largest party on Laois County Council by winning 3 seats here. The party's FPV dropped from 32% to 29.6% but was only split between three candidates which paid dividends. Aird topped the Portlaoise boxes by over 200 votes from Fitzgerald while Mary Sweeney's Ballyroan base held firm with 56% and 40% in the two boxes there. Thomasina Connell had to come through a dogfight against Dom Dunne as she only won 4.3% of the FPV but her transfer-friendliness eventually got her over the line. She only came 10th in the Portlaoise tallies but decent results in Abbeyleix and The Rock propelled her to the final seat.

Sinn Féin held on to their seat quite comfortably here but didn't come anywhere near a second seat. Their FPV dropped from 17.2% to 13.1% but Dwane-Stanley held firm with a strong vote in Portlaoise to claim the third seat once again. Gormley never really got any traction and I would predict a new running mate in 2024 if there is one at all.

Labour and Noel Tuohy will be happy with his result here as he also increased his vote share handsomedly to over 1,000 votes which basically guarantees you a seat in the Laois districts. The Labour vote here is hard to know though and establish how much of it is Tuohy's personal vote.

Renua had a decent first showing here, securing 5% of the vote and Dom Dunne got very close to that final seat, only losing out by 53 votes to Connell, not being able to secure enough transfers to get over the line. Noel O'Rourke wasn't able to help much as his vote put him out of contention immediately.

In terms of the Independents, there was a couple of surprisingly strong showings, especially from Naeem Iqbal who put himself into 7th position after the first count and was just gradually overtaken as the counts went on and finished in 9th which was very respectable. Timothy Adejumo also done reasonably well, polling ahead of both Madigan and Kelly and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in 5 years time. Tom Duffy and Judith Preston-Grace's campaigns never gained enough attention and didn't threaten for a seat.


Overall, my predictions actually ended up being correct which I didn't see happening for a while but Fine Gael will come out of this very happy - Aird is safe as long as he runs, Sweeney's Ballyroan base is rock solid and Connell is a young, female candidate which improves their image.

Fianna Fail will come back fighting in 2024 in search of regaining that third seat. Fennelly is also safe as he sweeps up Abbeyleix while Fitzgerald is popular in Portlaoise. They will need a strong candidate on the ticket in 5 years time if they want to try claim it back, potentially a local party official or a Lodge family member?

Sinn Fein and Labour will both be happy and Dwane-Stanley and Tuohy will be established councillors by 2024.

There is potential for a strong Independent candidate to stake a claim here but Portlaoise hasn't elected a candidate since Rotimi Adebari in 2009, could he make a comback in 2024? I think Iqbal might run again while there's definitely a strong chance Dom Dunne will run again. However, I can't see Renua still being around in 5 years so it will more than likely be as an Independent as I can't see him returning to the FF folds. However, if he had ran for FF then I think he would have won the seat as a lot of Jerry Lodge's old vote seems to have leaked to Fitzgerald and Tuohy rather than to new candidates Madigan and Kelly.


Predictions - 7/7
 

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