2019 NI General Election Constituencies – Predictions

the secretary

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it would b fantastic if John Finucane were to be elected in N. Belfast.
Yeah, north Belfast is really spoilt for choice. A DUP brexit hardliner or an absentee MP.
The agony of choice!
 


EnglishObserver

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the secretary

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if you have trouble in deciding between Nigel Dodds & John Finucane -
that's your problem.
sorry - I can't help you.
I doubt that anyone can help you.
The agony of choice. Frying pan and fire come to mind.
 
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Glaucon

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I agree with all the OP's predictions. As regards North Down, I think Alliance will put in a very strong showing.
 

raetsel

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His grand uncle Wing Commander Brendan Eamonn Fergus Finucane, DSO, DFC & Two Bars died in 1942 fighting fascists. I'm surprised he wasn't on the Loyalists sh*tty banner.
The loyalists involved in the disgusting smear campaign against John Finucane and Clair Hanna must be the most stupid people in Belfast right now. They haven't got the brains to understand that far from damaging either candidate, it is bolstering their bases, and ensuring that more of the "not terribly bothered" voters will be far more likely to come out and show solidarity with them.
 

devonish

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I agree with all the OP's predictions. As regards North Down, I think Alliance will put in a very strong showing.
A very hard one to call, Farry isn't particularly well liked and needs a chunk of the UUP vote to take the seat. In the 2017 assembly election the DUP had 37.5%, Alliance + Green + SDLP + SF total was 35.7% with UUP on 21.5%.
 

devonish

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The loyalists involved in the disgusting smear campaign against John Finucane and Clair Hanna must be the most stupid people in Belfast right now. They haven't got the brains to understand that far from damaging either candidate, it is bolstering their bases, and ensuring that more of the "not terribly bothered" voters will be far more likely to come out and show solidarity with them.
Same sort of thing happening in North Down, not going to help the DUP.
 

Mickeymac

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The only people who would take that seriously aren't likely to vote Alliance anyway. It's hard to see an upside to producing such a leaflet.

Indeed Paddy and elections are simply another excuse for them to produce more hate on top of the July hatefests.
 

raetsel

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Gerry Kelly tried the "Vote for me, get a Taig in North Belfast" pitch in 2015 in the hope of attracting SDLP support. What flew completely over his head was the fact that most SDLP voters were likely to have been insulted by that sort of play for their votes.
 

redneck

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Personally I would like to see John Finucane elected. His campaign has attracted a huge amount of hatred though. Real disturbing stuff. Reminds me a bit of the Brexit campaign in 2016. Apparently he has received a credible death threat.
 

McSlaggart

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Gerry Kelly tried the "Vote for me, get a Taig in North Belfast" pitch in 2015 in the hope of attracting SDLP support. What flew completely over his head was the fact that most SDLP voters were likely to have been insulted by that sort of play for their votes.
John Finucane is an extreamly good candidate who could win over a lot of sdlp votes.
 

raetsel

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Personally I would like to see John Finucane elected. His campaign has attracted a huge amount of hatred though. Real disturbing stuff. Reminds me a bit of the Brexit campaign in 2016. Apparently he has received a credible death threat.
That will work in his favour.
 

Observer B

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Belfast West
Huge split in the Fenian/Taig/Welfare Waster vote between Sinn Fein/IRA, SDLP and PBP over voter revulsion at sickening hypocrisy of SF/IRA refusal to condemn all terrorist acts of violence will benefit outstanding DUP candiate.
DUP gain

Mid Ulster
Increased police scrutiny of SF/IRA voter fraud scams will encourage pragmatic RCs to consider voting DUP
DUP gain

Newry and Armagh
Motorist backlash over dodgy diesel sold at SF/IRA supporting filling stations leading to groundswell of support for DUP
DUP gain

Fermanagh-South Tyrone
Graveyard revolt against SF/IRA arrogance and corruption will see dead switching in droves to DUP UUP candidate
UUP gain

West Tyrone
GAA violence controlled by SF/IRA godfathers turning voters to peace-loving DUP alternative
DUP gain

*With thanks to E Harris, E O'Hanlon, R Dudley Edwards, J Corcoran and the rest of the Soaraway Sindo team.
You can tell you are a DUP voter just by the fact you didn't mention Brexit once, you're probably even a DUP member (Either that or a budding comedian). The DUP's Brexit performance may not be a factor in the bubble you live in. One thing I would stake my life on and that is that the DUP will have less MPs after this election than they have now.
 

Observer B

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North Belfast: I think John Finucane will win this. The DUP vote maxed out in every constituency last election. The DUP could even loose some moderate unionist votes over Brexit through lower turnout. The Demographic trend will see more 18 to 20 year old Nat voters registered since last election. I don't see SDLP voters having an issue voting for a new breed SF candidate like John Finucane, particularly when there is no other NAT option and giving the alternative especially following the DUPs Brexit performance. So, where are the DUP going to get additional votes from? All factors considered (Brexit, Demographics), the DUP are more likely to loose votes while a Nat candidate stands to gain, and in this case the fact that he is SF won't make a much of a difference.

Furthermore, Another factor which will encourage former SDLP voters to vote for Finucane is the issues with housing in NB and especially when you get Digel Dodds opposing housing developments - The modern version of gerrymandering. Worth a read (Including Olcan85s comment at the end of the article):

 
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Observer B

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South Antrim: A lost cause for SDLP/SF. But what if enough SDLP/SF voters decide to cut their losses and vote UUP just to screw over the DUP? UUP were 3208 votes behind the DUP last time.
 

Dame_Enda

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North Belfast: I think John Finucane will win this. The DUP vote maxed out in every constituency last election. The DUP could even loose some moderate unionist votes over Brexit through lower turnout. The Demographic trend will see more 18 to 20 year old Nat voters registered since last election. I don't see SDLP voters having an issue voting for a new breed SF candidate like John Finucane, particularly when there is no other NAT option and giving the alternative especially following the DUPs Brexit performance. So, where are the DUP going to get additional votes from? All factors considered (Brexit, Demographics), the DUP are more likely to loose votes while a Nat candidate stands to gain, and in this case the fact that he is SF won't make a much of a difference.

Furthermore, Another factor which will encourage former SDLP voters to vote for Finucane is the issues with housing in NB and especially when you get Digel Dodds opposing housing developments - The modern version of gerrymandering. Worth a read (Including Olcan85s comment at the end of the article):

How backward of the UUP and DUP to manipulate housing in this way. This kind of thing doesnt happen down here. But housing discrimination based on social class most certainly does.
 


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