2019 NI General Election Constituencies – Predictions

AhNowStop

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Personally I would like to see John Finucane elected. His campaign has attracted a huge amount of hatred though. Real disturbing stuff. Reminds me a bit of the Brexit campaign in 2016. Apparently he has received a credible death threat.
The slithering loyalist loons are especially insecure regarding people like John Finucane ... But why wouldnt they be when what they have is the likes of the moronic little seamy bwyson ..
 


AhNowStop

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You can tell you are a DUP voter just by the fact you didn't mention Brexit once, you're probably even a DUP member (Either that or a budding comedian). The DUP's Brexit performance may not be a factor in the bubble you live in. One thing I would stake my life on and that is that the DUP will have less MPs after this election than they have now.
TBF the Prof was taking the p1ss there ObserverB....

He's def not a DUPper
 

Observer B

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However it cannot be assumed that all SDLP and Green voters will now vote for JF. On the other hand nationalist voter numbers on the electoral register will have grown and I have a feeling that the DUP maxed out their vote here last time.
TBF the Prof was taking the p1ss there ObserverB....

He's def not a DUPper
Ah! So I was right about the budding comedian comment then!
 

between the bridges

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the secretary

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AhNowStop

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One wonders if waving willys about will effect the votal...

Ah sure getting caught short & having a wee outdoor pee is nothing to fuss about ......
tis hardly comparable to your scummy little bigoted mates pishing against a chapel ... but then that’s par for the course with those hideous Orange Order / loyalist band types ...;)
 

AhNowStop

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It's no wile crime.
If an orange man like yourself was pishing on the street and an MP candidate you wouldn't be bothered posting.
His type would rather pish against Catholic Churches ... tut tut :rolleyes:
 

redneck

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I am not impressed with Mr Finucane, apparently urinating in the street. That said, I have done it myself. Maybe he has a medical condition.
 

between the bridges

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South Belfast radio debate live stream now.
Lets hope none of them are caught short...

Not only was his behaviour revolting, it was also utterly disrespectful of other members of the public. This is a professional middle-aged man. Not some teenage yob. He has no excuse.

The way John Finucane puts it is that he was "caught short" that evening. It was certainly short of the standards most citizens would expect from their Lord Mayor.

 

Glaucon

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He shouldn't have done it but if anyone here claims they've never taken a piss in public after a night out, they're lying.
 

Mickeymac

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One wonders if waving willys about will effect the votal...


Plenty of willy waving in your parts these days Bridget.;)


 

AhNowStop

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He shouldn't have done it but if anyone here claims they've never taken a piss in public after a night out, they're lying.
And the loyalist crackpots yapping about it probably Join their scummy wee mates in pishing against the nearest taiggy chapel :rolleyes:

hypocrital gobsh1tes
 

raetsel

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This is going to be a more interesting contest than normal because of the number of close fought constituencies. Nine constituencies, half of the total, could conceivably return new MPs to Westminster.

Upper Bann, arguably a safe DUP seat, will definitely change hands as the current MP, David Simpson, is not standing again, though the DUP look safe there. North Down will also deliver a new face, as the incumbent, Sylvia Hermon, an independent unionist, has retired, and the resulting contest poses one of the most interesting tussles, given the nature of the the vote there. Another six constituencies could all easily change hands. Fermanagh South Tyrone, South Belfast, North Belfast, South Down, Foyle, and South Antrim are all up for grabs. Arguably, East Belfast is also in the mix, but to a lesser extent in my opinion.

Were there to be any change in any of the other nine constituencies it would be a shock of seismic proportions so I don’t propose to go into any detail on any of them.

Fermanagh South Tyrone: the ultimate cliff hanger. Since its formation in 1950 the constituency has seen 22 Westminster elections and has returned 12 nationalists and 10 unionists. Sinn Fein won the seat by just 4 votes in 2010. SF’s Michelle Gildernew won last time by 875 votes.

SF to hold – just.

Foyle: once a safe SDLP seat, it fell to SF in the last election in controversial circumstances with allegations of vote rigging. Now SDLP party leader Colum Eastwood is standing against incumbent Elisha McCallion, a remarkably low profile and unimpressive SF representative. I suspect that lack of visibility will be McCallion’s undoing.

SDLP gain. Admittedly I'm sticking my neck out and I'll confess to a bit of wishful thinking as well.:)

South Down: Eamon De Valera stood here in 1918 for SF and clocked up just 33 votes. Enoch Powell held the seat as a UUP MP from 1974 until 1987. It transferred from the SDLP to SF’s Chris Hazzard last time. Hazzard is an articulate MP with a prominent media presence and I cannot see him losing despite the probability that his SDLP rival will benefit from unionist tactical voting.

SF hold.

North Down: Maggie Thatcher once improbably claimed that NI was as British as Finchley. However North Down is the constituency which comes closest to that comparison. It has a concentration of prosperous middle class residents and a relatively liberal profile. It is also one of the few predominantly unionist constituencies which voted “Remain” in the EU referendum. Now that it has been vacated by Sylvia Hermon it is a three way contest between Alliance, UUP and DUP. My guess is that Sylvia Hermon’s vote last time will split between UUP and Alliance and let in the DUP.

DUP gain.

East Belfast: the DUP won 56% of the vote here last time. Despite Naomi Long’s fast growing reputation, I cannot see her retaking the seat which she won narrowly in 2010, following the Iris Robinson scandal.

DUP hold.

South Antrim: this used to be a safe UUP seat but has oscillated between that party and the DUP during the 21st century.

DUP to hold – narrowly.

South Belfast: probably the most diverse and liberal constituency in NI, ranging from leafy middle class and mixed Malone to the rougher back streets off the Donegall Road. Emma Pengelly won this seat for the DUP from the SDLP last time but with Sinn Fein (and the Greens) not standing this time Claire Hanna must be odds on to win the seat back, and will particularly benefit from a nasty unionist smear campaign against her, which is bound to reap a backlash.
SDLP gain.

North Belfast: a cliffhanger between the DUP’s Nigel Dodds and SF’s John Finucane. The two big questions here are what effect the nasty smear campaign against Finucane will have on the behaviour of moderate unionists, and whether, in the absence of SDLP and Green candidates, enough of their voters will turn to SF rather than Alliance. Moderate nationalists will have much less of a problem voting for Finucane than they would have casting a vote for Gerry Kelly, whose sectarian campaign here in 2015 made him unelectable. My guess is that the smear campaign there is a gift to SF and Finucane may just shade it partly as a consequence of it.

SF gain.
Apart from North Down I got them all right (who saw that coming? Apart possibly from Glaucon who predicted it would be close.) I didn't see the scale of the SDLP victory in Foyle, though I haven't lived in the constituency for over three decades so am out of touch with feelings on the ground there. Nonetheless I am delighted for Colum Eastwood, and am pleased that Derry will once again be properly represented by a decent MP. Elisha McCallion was admittedly hopeless, but I still didn't envisage the collapse in her vote.
I am also delighted to see that the DUP smear campaign in Belfast rebounded spectacularly on them, and I'm particularly pleased with the scale of Claire Hanna's majority.
For Arlene, who only three years ago was basking in the admiration of adoring young supporters at the 2016 DUP Ard Fheis, it was a massive kick up the arse. There is another one waiting around the corner for her contained in the RHI Inquiry report.
Mike Nesbitt was in good form on TV last night. His observation that he used to think that the biggest threat to the union came from Scottish and Irish nationalists, but that now he could see that it is actually from English nationalists, was particularly astute.
 

devonish

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Apart from North Down I got them all right (who saw that coming? Apart possibly from Glaucon who predicted it would be close.) I didn't see the scale of the SDLP victory in Foyle, though I haven't lived in the constituency for over three decades so am out of touch with feelings on the ground there. Nonetheless I am delighted for Colum Eastwood, and am pleased that Derry will once again be properly represented by a decent MP. Elisha McCallion was admittedly hopeless, but I still didn't envisage the collapse in her vote.
I am also delighted to see that the DUP smear campaign in Belfast rebounded spectacularly on them, and I'm particularly pleased with the scale of Claire Hanna's majority.
For Arlene, who only three years ago was basking in the admiration of adoring young supporters at the 2016 DUP Ard Fheis, it was a massive kick up the arse. There is another one waiting around the corner for her contained in the RHI Inquiry report.
Mike Nesbitt was in good form on TV last night. His observation that he used to think that the biggest threat to the union came from Scottish and Irish nationalists, but that now he could see that it is actually from English nationalists, was particularly astute.
I've always quite liked Mike Nesbitt and thought he stepped down prematurely. I thought he came very close to stating that he welcomed Claire Hanna beating Pengelly. Colum Eastwood's majority was quite staggering and I'm pleased for him, the SDLP needed a bit of a boost which this and the S Belfast result will provide.
 

raetsel

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I've always quite liked Mike Nesbitt and thought he stepped down prematurely. I thought he came very close to stating that he welcomed Claire Hanna beating Pengelly. Colum Eastwood's majority was quite staggering and I'm pleased for him, the SDLP needed a bit of a boost which this and the S Belfast result will provide.
I've always respected Nesbitt, and recognised that he tried to steer the UUP away from its past. He also observed correctly that Alliance is now stealing the UUP's clothes, and that in trying to placate the party's more hardline supporters the moderate wing of the party's base has gradually been drifting away from them.
I have in the past noted that electoral transfers showed that Alliance's supporters were, in spite of popular belief, mainly from soft nationalist backgrounds. That now looks to be no longer true.
 


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