• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.

2020 - Democratic Presidential debates

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
Wednesday evening, marks the official start to the Democratic party’s Presidential nomination process. With a record number of candidates, the DNC capped the participants at 20 and will have two pools of 10 candidates debate each other over consecutive nights. The site of the first debates is Miami and Florida will be a crucial battleground state for both parties in November 2020.

To qualify candidates must have met at least one of two criteria, 1) polling support of at least 1% in three recognized national or early state polls (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada) and 2) a minimum of 65 thousand individual donors with at least 200 separate donors in 20 states. The criteria are strict and verified, with priority given to candidates who have met both criteria and various tie-breakers used if necessary to cap the number of participants at 20.

The second set of debates is set for the end of July in Detroit with Michigan another crucial state for both parties. The criteria for the second debate will be the same as the first one. More debates will be held later this year but the criteria will double to 2% support in polling and 130 thousand donors for those debates.

The 2020 contest as noted has drawn a record number of candidates with the candidates qualified including, a former Vice President, seven sitting US Senators, an incumbent Governor, a former Governor, three sitting US representatives as well as two former US representatives, two city Mayors, a former HUD Secretary, an entrepreneur and a self-help guru.

The debates will present a great opportunity for some of the lesser known candidates to introduce themselves to a wider audience with the possibility for breakout moments, however there is also the possibility of gaffes, missteps and misstatements. It is likely that the debates will impact polling but the total effect remains to be seen. Candidates up first have an advantage but candidates on the second night will learn what works and what didn’t work.

The Trump re-election campaign will be watching closely and are already armed and ready with talking points and no doubt tweets galore on the debates as they unfold.

The first 10 candidates for Wednesday nights debate are as follows

  • Massachusetts - Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  • Former Texas - Rep. Beto O'Rourke
  • New Jersey - Sen. Cory Booker
  • Minnesota - Sen. Amy Klobuchar
  • Washington - Gov. Jay Inslee
  • Hawaii Rep. - Tulsi Gabbard
  • Former Maryland - Rep. John Delaney
  • Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary - Julian Castro
  • Ohio Congressman - Tim Ryan
  • New York City - Mayor Bill de Blasio
 
Last edited:


mr_anderson

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2007
Messages
9,689
Such a turn of events.
The Republican field was wide open the last time with Hillary the only contender on the other side.
Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and John Kasich were the first debate participants.

There's a real fight for the ideology of the DNC now, as the old one has crashed & burned.

I'd choose Gabbard myself, with Warren second.
Can't recall, but was Trump leading the field from Day 1 in 2015 ?
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
Such a turn of events.
The Republican field was wide open the last time with Hillary the only contender on the other side.
Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and John Kasich were the first debate participants.

There's a real fight for the ideology of the DNC now, as the old one has crashed & burned.

I'd choose Gabbard myself, with Warren second.
Can't recall, but was Trump leading the field from Day 1 in 2015 ?

No Trump was not in the lead from day 1, he did however poll credibly among a very crowded field, that said some early pollsters didn't include him as they felt he was a frivolous candidate. Jeb Bush was the early leader, Rubio, Walker, Paul, Cruz and Christie also did well in early polls.

What really lifted Trump in the polls was his attack on McCain in July 2015, about getting captured as a Vietnam soldier. The comments were seen as so reprehensible they led to calls for Trump to drop out, instead his poll numbers defied gravity and surged.

Both Gabbard and Warren are on tonight with Warren expected to dominate the debate so the stakes are high for her.

There is no real equivalent to Trump on the Democratic side for this contest (not sure there is anywhere), it seems people wanted a "disruptor" and they got one.
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
Technical glitch for the second half with the change of moderators. Scarleh!
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
All of the candidates generally had a good first half, with all well prepared and well schooled, some had well rehearsed talking points but Warren was good, clearly well prepared and on point.

Castro and DeBlasio also had their moments, that were well received.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,702
Never bother with these, but from reading this morning ...

General agreement the debate was issues focused and a good verbal tussle, allowing for the number of debaters

General agreement Elizabeth Warren was a winner.

General agreement Beto O'Rourke was a loser.

General agreement Cory Booker was good. but maybe not great.

Some agreement Julian Castro did well.

Mixed impressions: Bill de Blasio was good for some, others thought he was just rude.

Honourable mention: Tulsi Gabbard on Iran


 

mr_anderson

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 12, 2007
Messages
9,689
Never bother with these, but from reading this morning ...

General agreement the debate was issues focused and a good verbal tussle, allowing for the number of debaters

General agreement Elizabeth Warren was a winner.
Seems to be.
Didn't watch the debates, but all Foxnews are doing is attacking Warren.
So I guess she won.
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
Seems to be.
Didn't watch the debates, but all Foxnews are doing is attacking Warren.
So I guess she won.
It's fair to suggest Warren was the winner but she was the only top tier candidate on the stage last night so she did have some exepctations, which she met.

For tonight's debate, there will be four of the top tier candidates, Biden, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg so I would expect a bit more of a brawl.
 

Ardillaun

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,485
I hate candidate who interrupt others on a crowded stage and try and extend their time. You’d almost have to have each of them in separate booths where their microphones could be turned off if they didn’t behave themselves.
 
Last edited:

Kevin Parlon

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 4, 2008
Messages
11,076
Twitter
Deiscirt
It's fair to suggest Warren was the winner but she was the only top tier candidate on the stage last night so she did have some exepctations, which she met.

For tonight's debate, there will be four of the top tier candidates, Biden, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg so I would expect a bit more of a brawl.
I find Warren wooden, cold and unconvincing. Who do you think will win the nom?
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,487
David Frum put his finger on what I think the big issue is with the Democrats and 2020


Yes Kevin, but it is already in the price and he is behind (significantly so)
And more importantly, it is long odds on that that graph is now starting to tick downwards.
Trump would be ahead in polls if he were in any way a "normal" POTUS as in his first 2.5 years he has had a really sweet spot in terms of economic backdrop
The next 1.5 years will almost certainly see an erosion of that position
Most analysts see GDP growth now between 1-2.5%
Even at higher end at 2.5%, that would involve stagnant wages and probably a very small rise in unemployment

I know incumbents often suffer midterm, but with the sort of tailwinds he had in tax cuts, employment, growth and stock market, Trump should not have lost the House, let alone by a v large margin.

He is the equivalent of a Premiership manager who was handed a winning team and a massive war chest, but is still 8 points behind in February
Can still do it, but not on current form, and he will have to do it with current squad and resources, as goody bag has been spent and cannot be tapped again

ie
He needs to change something, but I see no sign he will do so, and will just pound his base and hope he can blag enough independents they are much better off with him
Tall order, as right now, they aren't buying it.

And, I repeat, he has a massive issue with women, that appears to be only getting worse
He will be walloped, not just beaten, if the recent Quinnipiac poll numbers come through in 2020 (34% of women say they would or may consider voting for him!)


On Dem side
Harris must score tonight, it just isn't happening for her so far
Of those outside top 5, if they don't rise in polls after debates, there will be a slew of them packing up the tents early

Biden's lead may well be understated, his numbers as the number 2 choice are stunningly good, so he is likely to do really well as many of the minnows fall away

Echelon (a GOP pollster) made a big play yesterday of saying Warren was closing and Biden's lead had shrunk, and indeed it has, a small bit.
But they made no play that when they polled head to heads with Biden v Warren and Biden v Sanders, his lead ballooned, showing the number 2 factor is very big for him.

As such, I think leading Dems will look somehow to get him out early, but easier said than done
He is liked and respected and anything really nasty is likely to rebound on attacker
Booker went after him last week on the segregationist remarks, and he got nothing, Biden remains massively popular with Blacks on all recent polls.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,646
Biden remains massively popular with Blacks on all recent polls.
People like him. Black voters don't need to vote for a black candidate after Obama's election, no more than Irish Americans favour a catholic after Kennedy. I suspect its his age that will sink Biden in the race for nomination.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,998
Live stream of the debate here.

 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
I find Warren wooden, cold and unconvincing. Who do you think will win the nom?
Warren normally is but had a good early start on the debate last night which is what she needed. She faded in the second half but by then many had tuned out.

As for who will win the nom, while it's possible really that anyone could win, I don't think as of right now, it will be the top tier candidates,Biden, Sanders or Warren.

There is still room one of the lower tier candidates to break out, but they need to do it soon. These debates should help them. Harris is by no means at the bottom, but had a great roll out and no gaffes so far, let's see how her debates go.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,998
CNN newsroom thinks was a bad night gor Biden and that Harris broke through.

I thought he handled her point on his past position against bussing very badly. He said he wasnt opposed to bussing per se - just opposed to the DoE enforcing it.
 

Ardillaun

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 4, 2010
Messages
11,485
Debates this crowded are a bit silly.

Harris did well (with the occasional misspoken word thrown in here and there) and Buttigieg is an excellent debater, although he mentioned England when he meant the UK, an annoying American mannerism. Like Mayor Pete, Bernie speaks in fully formed paragraphs but I just don’t see the point of his health care proposal. At the beginning, Biden and Sanders didn’t seem to realize it was time to turn around and go to their spots. For a moment, both looked rather befuddled.

Regarding Frum’s criticism, opposition parties always paint the situation as worse than it is and they’re competing for votes within their own party so the rhetoric has to be more left-wing than the US average.

For what it’s worth, Warren and Harris stood out in this cacophony. So far in the campaign, Warren and Buttigieg have sounded the best prepared, apart from Bernie who is just too extreme, old and cranky for the job.
 
Last edited:

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,108
CNN newsroom thinks was a bad night gor Biden and that Harris broke through.

I thought he handled her point on his past position against bussing very badly. He said he wasnt opposed to bussing per se - just opposed to the DoE enforcing it.

Harris and Buttigieg were the clear winners tonight and Biden and Sanders were the clear losers but the latter two are so far ahead they will live to fight another day. Giillibrand was last nights DeBlasio with many interruptions that sounded after a while of smacking of desperation.

If you asked me who was the big winner over the two nights I would have to say Harris. She had the tougher draw and emerged stronger, redefining her credentials, she already checked many boxes but proved she is no Ginny come lately. I would expect a bump in the polls for her.

It was also a poor night for some of the small fry candidates, Marriane Williamson, Andrew Yang, and Eric Swalwell. Hopefully this will help winnow the field a bit.
 
Last edited:


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top