• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please us viua the Contact us link in the footer.

30 Nov Lucid Talk poll: UUP 11.4 (+0.4) All: 11.6 (+0.7) SDLP: 13.5 (+1) SF 26.4 (-1.6) DUP 30 (-0.7)


factual

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2005
Messages
8,761
30 Nov Lucid Talk poll: UUP 11.4 (+0.4) All: 11.6 (+0.7) SDLP: 13.5 (+1) SF 26.4 (-1.6) DUP 30 (-0.7)

The poll is published in the Belfast Telegraph today and gives the following result (with changes from last poll in brackets).

UUP 11.4 (+0.4)
All: 11.6 (+0.7)
SDLP: 13.5 (+1)
SF 26.4 (-1.6)
DUP 30 (-0.7)
Greens 3.7% (NC)
TUV 3.4%

MOE: 3.6%

Lucidtalk is a member of the British Polling Council, a quality kitemark.

Source: tweet from reliable source, Alex Kane: https://twitter.com/AlexKane221b

The last Lucid Talk poll (May 2012) had the following results:

DUP 30.7
SF 28
UUP 11
SDLP 12.5
All 10.9
Green 3.7

Comment: Changes are within the margin of error of 3.6%. Suggests, however, slight move away from DUP and SF but that DUP and SF remain the most popular parties within each segment of the population. Alliance seem to be edging ahead of UUP.
 
Last edited:


Ulick

Active member
Joined
May 17, 2007
Messages
185
Have to laugh at them reporting the results to decimal point accuracy - doesn't disguise the fact there is a 4% margin of error, which effectively makes it useless.
 

Garza

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2010
Messages
2,560
Pretty much as you were then.

Although it does tickle me that the Alliance is above the UUP. :lol:

Also Catholics outnumber Protestants in votes for Alliance in a 4:3 ratio.

Also SF have a women vote problem, but has a healthy youth vote.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Seems like a surprising 4.4% swing towards the Sunningdale trio over the legion of the Chuckle brothers, and a 3.7% swing from DUP/SF to SDLP/UUP. Unionism gains 0.3% from Nationalism.

If these figures do reflect, a lot depends on the constituency distribution of these figures, the swings applied across would see Sinn Féin lose a seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone and possibly Newry and Armagh to the SDLP, the UUP would regain a seat in East Derry, and take McNarry's seat in Strangford and from the DUP in Lagan Valley.

Mitchell McLaughlin and Alex Maskey would be two of the leading Sinn Féiners needing the electoral machine to cushion any blow from the -1.6% loss, Sinn Féin's seat in East Antrim also under threat. The DUP face challenges from the UUP and SDLP for their third seat in South Antrim, and the increase in Alliance vote wouldn't help that cause one bit.

My guess is that they would be more central though.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Have to laugh at them reporting the results to decimal point accuracy - doesn't disguise the fact there is a 4% margin of error, which effectively makes it useless.
Take off 4% and it's still a 0.4% swing against the established two, one that could haunt them in a quite a few marginals.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Wherr you get that from?

Only real trend in Northern Politics is the slow steady rise of Alliance
A 0.6% rise wouldn't get them any more seats though, all we could see is their transfers propping up other parties. North Down is their best bet for a new seat, but only at Stephen Agnew's expense. One seat more under normal D'Hondt would still leave them with one minister.
 

Iarmhi Gael

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,857
A 0.6% rise wouldn't get them any more seats though, all we could see is their transfers propping up other parties. North Down is their best bet for a new seat, but only at Stephen Agnew's expense.
Alliance though continues to rise - compared to their 7.4% they acheived in May 2011 in the local elections. I am sure SDLP will be happy to see some sort of solidity and core vote emerge now and hopefully can start to build further
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Alliance though continues to rise - compared to their 7.4% they acheived in May 2011 in the local elections. I am sure SDLP will be happy to see some sort of solidity and core vote emerge now and hopefully can start to build further
I'm not dismissing them, with regards to the Europeans it would suggest they are kingmakers/queenmakers between the UUP and SDLP, even perhaps taking the spoils from the UUP or SDLP to win the seat themselves ... then again European elections haven't been the Alliance Party's strong point. DUP and Sinn Féin remain above the 25% quota to avoid being sucked into the transfer campaign here.
 

Ulick

Active member
Joined
May 17, 2007
Messages
185
Such a sneeze would lose Sinn Féin 3rd their 67 vote advantage over SDLP 1st in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
Any port in a storm eh? The SDLP is dead in Fermanagh. The coffin was sealed with McKinney's vote splitting run. That 67 vote margin will be quadrupled come the next election given the amount of new voters that'll be on the register by then.
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
Any port in a storm eh? The SDLP is dead in Fermanagh. The coffin was sealed with McKinney's vote splitting run. That 67 vote margin will be quadrupled come the next election given the amount of new voters that'll be on the register by then.
I'm predicting Brendan Gallagher to "do a Keenan" and take Tommy Gallagher's old seat back, and Sinn Féin arrogance sealing the fate of the brief tenure of Bronwyn McGahan as MLA. We've seen the new registers reject Sinn Féin in Foyle, we're seeing new registers reject Sinn Féin in the poll, we are seeing Sinn Féin's party first people second push people back to the SDLP.

Like the Queen, I want to sake Martin's hand here. :D
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
38,453
I'm predicting Brendan Gallagher to "do a Keenan" and take Tommy Gallagher's old seat back, and Sinn Féin arrogance sealing the fate of the brief tenure of Bronwyn McGahan as MLA. We've seen the new registers reject Sinn Féin in Foyle, we're seeing new registers reject Sinn Féin in the poll, we are seeing Sinn Féin's party first people second push people back to the SDLP.

Like the Queen, I want to sake Martin's hand here. :D


Will somebody please cut those lights, they're blinding me.:lol::lol::lol:
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
38,453
Any port in a storm eh? The SDLP is dead in Fermanagh. The coffin was sealed with McKinney's vote splitting run. That 67 vote margin will be quadrupled come the next election given the amount of new voters that'll be on the register by then.

History will not be kind to the stoops over this........btw, where is the loser these days?
 

physicist

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
6,274
History will not be kind to the stoops over this........btw, where is the loser these days?
History was kind to Sinn Féin when they split the vote against the lead nationalist Tommy Gallagher in 1992, let Fermanagh - South Tyrone have a democracy not a Fifedom.
 

New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top