5 Financial meltdowns and how they made their way back

Edo

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Interesting piece in the Guardian on Thailand,Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Iceland and how they are faring after their economic armaggeddons.

Can Ireland bounce back? How five other nations fared in financial crisis | World news | The Guardian


First observations is that all required loans from the IMF and IMF programmes for recovery


Second is that growing exports is the only way out of the mess

Third is that there will be considerable disruption and pain no matter what way you look at it.

Big question for and Ireland and its population who are still to a large degree in denial about the whole situation is are we prepared to make the massive changes and sacrifices to start the recovery.

Are we prepared to:

see the IFSC smashed to smithereens a la Thailand and the country reorientated as an traded goods and services export economy rather than a tax dumping rogue state?

Are we prepared to for the banks to close their doors and millions to lose their savings - a la Argentina and Russia?

Whatever direction we take there will be serious short-term losers from all spectrums of society -

Can we for the first time in our history think long-term and is this generation prepared to reduce and sacrifice its standard of living for the good of those who will come after us?
 


LeDroit

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Ironically, just watching a documentary at the moment on Germany after the war and how they rebuilt their nation, as an occupied country while paying massive reparations to the Allies. Lads, if they can do it so can we. They were far worse off. We just need the will and the recognition that we need to take three steps back before we can roar ahead. If we allow people to use a truly free market in manufacturing and trading in goods and services we can unleash the amazing power within ourselves as a nation. It saved the Germans.
 

Run_to_da_hills

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As long as Fianna Fail are in power we haven't a hope in hell of making it back.
 

captainwillard

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Ironically, just watching a documentary at the moment on Germany after the war and how they rebuilt their nation, as an occupied country while paying massive reparations to the Allies. Lads, if they can do it so can we. They were far worse off. We just need the will and the recognition that we need to take three steps back before we can roar ahead. If we allow people to use a truly free market in manufacturing and trading in goods and services we can unleash the amazing power within ourselves as a nation. It saved the Germans.
My grandfather told me about Germans working in Ireland in the 1930s on an electrificaion scheme sending money back home to the fatherland.
 

Cael

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Interesting piece in the Guardian on Thailand,Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Iceland and how they are faring after their economic armaggeddons.

Can Ireland bounce back? How five other nations fared in financial crisis | World news | The Guardian


First observations is that all required loans from the IMF and IMF programmes for recovery


Second is that growing exports is the only way out of the mess

Third is that there will be considerable disruption and pain no matter what way you look at it.

Big question for and Ireland and its population who are still to a large degree in denial about the whole situation is are we prepared to make the massive changes and sacrifices to start the recovery.

Are we prepared to:

see the IFSC smashed to smithereens a la Thailand and the country reorientated as an traded goods and services export economy rather than a tax dumping rogue state?

Are we prepared to for the banks to close their doors and millions to lose their savings - a la Argentina and Russia?

Whatever direction we take there will be serious short-term losers from all spectrums of society -

Can we for the first time in our history think long-term and is this generation prepared to reduce and sacrifice its standard of living for the good of those who will come after us?
All of this is predicated on a strong Capitalist system in the rest of the world - particularly the US. That is not the case now. China is about the only strong capitalist state left, and it is sitting on the edge of a property crash of its own. And nor is the Chinese goverment in any way ideological. they do what seems to work for them at any given time. If the US economy falls below a level where it can still afford Chinese exports, or if it defaults on its loans to China, The Chinese Communist Party will return to a Communist command economy.
 

Edo

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Ironically, just watching a documentary at the moment on Germany after the war and how they rebuilt their nation, as an occupied country while paying massive reparations to the Allies. Lads, if they can do it so can we. They were far worse off. We just need the will and the recognition that we need to take three steps back before we can roar ahead. If we allow people to use a truly free market in manufacturing and trading in goods and services we can unleash the amazing power within ourselves as a nation. It saved the Germans.
Could not agree more Le Droit.

Im just back from a sales and diplomacy mission for my own fledgling little export operation in France,Germany and Italy last week - it was quite successful - at macro-level the attitude in Europe for the main is that we are the authors of our own destruction here and what goes around comes back around. At a micro-level - business is business and there is no problem with the Irish doing business in Europe - if your product is good enough and there is a demand..............

Irelands main problem IMHO ,ever since George Colley ran the first budget deficit in 1969 - is that in the main - we have borrowed for consumption not investment. We have wanted the German standard of living on Greek levels of productivity - that has to change - we were approaching this in the mid 90's - before "payback time 1997" unleashed an orgy of borrowed consumption spending which in main went on imports and property speculation which nearly killed our productive sectors.

Its time to stop crying and whinging about sovereignty, bonds and the like - take a cold bath and look at the positives of the situation we find ourselves in - the past is the past - there is nothing you can do with the past except hopefully learn a few lessons from it - its a very irish thing to wallow in percieved past injustices etc etc - time to move on and into the future.

We have only scratched the surface of our economic relationship with the rest of the EU and Eurozone - a free market of 450 million plus all within 2-3 hour flight - the richest trading bloc on the planet even in these straightened economic times.

We have the potential to do seriously well here - but like all shop-keepers and businesses - we have be able to compete and offer a product that is value for money ,has cache value, and that people want to buy.

the week before last - meself and the missus went away for our first holiday in ages - a couple of days down in West Cork - 70 quid each for 3 nights B&B in a 4 star hotel - great value in local restaurants and amenities etc etc - and we met loads of Tourists from Europe and the US who were delighted with the value and the product on offer - does it take financial meltdown for us to finally come to our senses about how much we rip each other off on a daily basis?

Its time to start chasing the pennies and stop dreaming about the pounds - pennies add up to pounds - the short term stroke and "Im worth it" attitude has to be replaced by a work ethic and long term attitude that there is no such thing as a free lunch which we are finding out now.
 

Edo

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All of this is predicated on a strong Capitalist system in the rest of the world - particularly the US. That is not the case now. China is about the only strong capitalist state left, and it is sitting on the edge of a property crash of its own. And nor is the Chinese goverment in any way ideological. they do what seems to work for them at any given time. If the US economy falls below a level where it can still afford Chinese exports, or if it defaults on its loans to China, The Chinese Communist Party will return to a Communist command economy.
Cael - you know there is no point you and me arguing here because I live in one world and you live in another :D

Seriously tho - there will always be buyers and sellers - of food,shelter, playstations, political ideologies etc etc etc:D

Supply and demand will not end with the downfall of the USA - sorry to disappoint you on that one.

Before the US , there was Germany and Britain, before that it was the Dutch, before that it was the Italian republics and the Hanseatic leagues etc etc - there will always be producers and consumers , buyers and sellers , supply and demand - the actors might change - but the show goes on.
 

HanleyS

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Im just back from a sales and diplomacy mission for my own fledgling little export operation in France,Germany and Italy last week - it was quite successful - at macro-level the attitude in Europe for the main is that we are the authors of our own destruction here and what goes around comes back around.
Congrats and fair play to you for sticking with the exports. I've taken a break quite recently and am doing some exams but will be back in mid-2011 hopefully in Enterprise Ireland backed sector.
 

Cael

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Cael - you know there is no point you and me arguing here because I live in one world and you live in another :D

Seriously tho - there will always be buyers and sellers - of food,shelter, playstations, political ideologies etc etc etc:D

Supply and demand will not end with the downfall of the USA - sorry to disappoint you on that one.

Before the US , there was Germany and Britain, before that it was the Dutch, before that it was the Italian republics and the Hanseatic leagues etc etc - there will always be producers and consumers , buyers and sellers , supply and demand - the actors might change - but the show goes on.

This post is more of a prayer for capitalism than any sort of analysis of reality. There are only buyers and sellers of food and shelter in a system where food and shelter are commodified. That system is in an advanced state of collapse.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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How do we compare on scale of debt?
Over twice as much per capita. Total net debt is now about 800% of GNP. Total external debt including IFSC is up to 1,500% of GNP.

We are unprecedented in the history of civilisation.
 

Catalpa

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Interesting piece in the Guardian on Thailand,Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Iceland and how they are faring after their economic armaggeddons.

Can Ireland bounce back? How five other nations fared in financial crisis | World news | The Guardian


First observations is that all required loans from the IMF and IMF programmes for recovery


Second is that growing exports is the only way out of the mess

Third is that there will be considerable disruption and pain no matter what way you look at it.

Big question for and Ireland and its population who are still to a large degree in denial about the whole situation is are we prepared to make the massive changes and sacrifices to start the recovery.

Are we prepared to:

see the IFSC smashed to smithereens a la Thailand and the country reorientated as an traded goods and services export economy rather than a tax dumping rogue state?

Are we prepared to for the banks to close their doors and millions to lose their savings - a la Argentina and Russia?

Whatever direction we take there will be serious short-term losers from all spectrums of society -

Can we for the first time in our history think long-term and is this generation prepared to reduce and sacrifice its standard of living for the good of those who will come after us?
The Link between them all is that they each have their own currency

- a liberty we have handed over to others.

Its joining the Euro that set the foundations of the utter Disaster we are now heading into.

- & of course as its Germany's pet project

- then they are quite prepared to leave us swinging in the wind to save their own bacon.

Europa Conventus Delenda Est
 

Cael

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Im just back from a sales and diplomacy mission for my own fledgling little export operation in France,Germany and Italy last week - it was quite successful - at macro-level the attitude in Europe for the main is that we are the authors of our own destruction here and what goes around comes back around.
A totally ignorant and self serving analysis from totally ignorant and self serving people. The authors of the current crisis in Ireland were German, French and British banks who had no use for vast amounts of money that had been stolen off the German, French and British workers, so they pumped hundreds of billions of it into Irish and Spanish property bubbles. Now, amazingly, they are screwing the Irish and Spanish workers to give them back the money they willfully squandered themselves.
 

Edo

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This post is more of a prayer for capitalism than any sort of analysis of reality. There are only buyers and sellers of food and shelter in a system where food and shelter are commodified. That system is in an advanced state of collapse.
True - they were saying that in the 20th,19th,18th,17th,16th,15th,14th,13th,12th,11th,10th centuries etc etc aswell - how long do you plan on waiting for the system to collapse? - particularly given the only experiment in your line of thought didnt last 70 years before it collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions.
 

Cael

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True - they were saying that in the 20th,19th,18th,17th,16th,15th,14th,13th,12th,11th,10th centuries etc etc aswell - how long do you plan on waiting for the system to collapse?

Just open your eyes and look around you. Feudalism didnt die in one day either. Indeed, it is still around in one way or another. But, feudalism is no longer the main way people organise society. There will be vain attempts to get private enterprise to lift the Irish economy, but everyone already knows that this is an impossibility.

By the way, capitalism as the structuring ideology of society is less than 300 years old.
 

Edo

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The Link between them all is that they each have their own currency

- a liberty we have handed over to others.

Its joining the Euro that set the foundations of the utter Disaster we are now heading into.

- & of course as its Germany's pet project

- then they are quite prepared to leave us swinging in the wind to save their own bacon.

Europa Conventus Delenda Est
Fair point Catalpa - I would be very interested in an brutually objective analysis of our participation in the Euro-project - one that is devoid of sentimental nationalism and pie in the sky optimism about our capabilities if we were only free etc etc................
 

Catalpa

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Fair point Catalpa - I would be very interested in an brutually objective analysis of our participation in the Euro-project - one that is devoid of sentimental nationalism and pie in the sky optimism about our capabilities if we were only free etc etc................
Well I don't think anyone could argue with pragmatic nationalism at at time like this.

Putting ourselves under obligation to the dual Franco-Germanic centre of an emerging polity of 27 States and a population base of which we represent less than 1% of the population was & is just plain stupid.

We are a very little fish in a Bay of Sharks here.

What we should have done and need to do is (over time it is true) renegotiate our relationship with the EU to one along the lines of an EFTA member & regain control of our own affairs

- but work in as much harmony as is mutually beneficial to both polities.

Ending up a tiny statlet on the edge of a United States of Europe (not its heart!) is not in this ancient Nation's best interests.

This might also be the best result for all concerned as its clear Germany now realises it cannot carry all the sea urchins of Europa on its back indefinitely.

We need to move away from the emerging centralised Super Polity to a looser framework to reflect the Continent's national and fiscal diversity.

We are in the belly of the Beast and need to head towards the exit:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_KXWZrEefy7I/SjFrqqrGy1I/AAAAAAAAAHo/Fe5I0XrOv7I/MazeJonahWhale.gif
 
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Finbar10

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Interesting piece in the Guardian on Thailand,Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Iceland and how they are faring after their economic armaggeddons.

Can Ireland bounce back? How five other nations fared in financial crisis | World news | The Guardian


First observations is that all required loans from the IMF and IMF programmes for recovery


Second is that growing exports is the only way out of the mess

Third is that there will be considerable disruption and pain no matter what way you look at it.

Big question for and Ireland and its population who are still to a large degree in denial about the whole situation is are we prepared to make the massive changes and sacrifices to start the recovery.

Are we prepared to:

see the IFSC smashed to smithereens a la Thailand and the country reorientated as an traded goods and services export economy rather than a tax dumping rogue state?

Are we prepared to for the banks to close their doors and millions to lose their savings - a la Argentina and Russia?

Whatever direction we take there will be serious short-term losers from all spectrums of society -

Can we for the first time in our history think long-term and is this generation prepared to reduce and sacrifice its standard of living for the good of those who will come after us?
I read elsewhere that you are trying to get your own small exporting operation off the ground. Really wish you well with that! That's exactly what this country needs at the moment.

Our economy recently has been based mostly on multinational transfer pricing and borrowing. We've become very uncompetitive. As these are scaled back there's going to be a lot of pain over the next few years. But anyway hope your venture succeeds.

I do agree there is something almost parasitic in how we use corporation tax and the IFSC. But I would also say this is a symptom of a deeper structural problem with the EU. I've never had a problem with Europe as a relatively loose trading and economic union of sovereign nations. But in other unions of states, such as between the states of the US, or even within the UK, there is almost always large redistribution of tax revenue between regions. The US federal budget is a huge portion of the US economy. Large amounts of federal funds are redistributed into backwater states. Within the UK, Scotland and particularly northern Ireland are hugely subsidized. Wealth and economic activity are still hugely concentrated in centres such as London. But at least the exchequer can compensate for this to an extent. The problem with the EU, as I see it, is that it's budget is tiny (only a percent or two of the EU economy I think). I believe we are headed towards a closer union with more harmonized taxes of all kinds, including eventually corporation tax. But unless there is a much greater level of redistribution of EU funds to poorer and peripheral states, there will be an inexorable flow of wealth and economic activity to the centre, to places such as Germany. The main lever of competition left to us (after currency and taxation are gone) will be wages. We'll still be able to compete, but perhaps with wages much less than those in the heartland of Europe, and the economic centres of the large states. Certainly much lower relative to where we are now. The EU may well develop along a more redistributive path in the future of course, but I wouldn't bet on Germany or similar countries signing up for something along those lines. Was initially happy with us joining the EU. But am not convinced where it is heading is necessarily good for Ireland.
 

patslatt

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Interesting piece in the Guardian on Thailand,Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Iceland and how they are faring after their economic armaggeddons.

Can Ireland bounce back? How five other nations fared in financial crisis | World news | The Guardian


First observations is that all required loans from the IMF and IMF programmes for recovery


Second is that growing exports is the only way out of the mess

Third is that there will be considerable disruption and pain no matter what way you look at it.

Big question for and Ireland and its population who are still to a large degree in denial about the whole situation is are we prepared to make the massive changes and sacrifices to start the recovery.

Are we prepared to:

see the IFSC smashed to smithereens a la Thailand and the country reorientated as an traded goods and services export economy rather than a tax dumping rogue state?

Are we prepared to for the banks to close their doors and millions to lose their savings - a la Argentina and Russia?

Whatever direction we take there will be serious short-term losers from all spectrums of society -

Can we for the first time in our history think long-term and is this generation prepared to reduce and sacrifice its standard of living for the good of those who will come after us?
The main problem is the sense of entitlement which prevents cutbacks appropriate to the reduced tax take. Without massive cutbacks,there will be default whether we are buried in debts we can't pay or bond markets close down to us.

There is no need to reorient the economy away from the high paying jobs at the IFSC. The IFSC would arguably only be a problem if the punt was still around and the level of foreign exchange earnings from the IFSC was so high that it was pushing up the punt to levels damaging to other exports.

Of course,the risks of crony loans to insiders, high risk proprietary trading and derivatives trading have to be regulated tightly.
 
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feargach

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Ironically, just watching a documentary at the moment on Germany after the war and how they rebuilt their nation, as an occupied country while paying massive reparations to the Allies. Lads, if they can do it so can we. They were far worse off. We just need the will and the recognition that we need to take three steps back before we can roar ahead. If we allow people to use a truly free market in manufacturing and trading in goods and services we can unleash the amazing power within ourselves as a nation. It saved the Germans.
Or we could do what the Spaniards did in 1492: discover a new continent groaning with precious metals and easy-to-conquer natives who aren't immune to the diseases you carry.

I assume you find the above situation somewhat ludicrous because the situation in 2010 is just too different to the one in 1492.

Also, the situation in the post-war era is similarly non-comparable to today.

In post-war germany, there were a massive army of highly-skilled engineers still alive after the collapse of the Nazi regime. They were, by any honest measure, easily the best in the world.

They also had the fervent support of the world's premier superpower, back in the days when that adjective meant something.

These factors do not come into play.

Sorry fella, but comparing 2010 Ireland to 1950 Germany is every bit as dumb as hoping we can repeat the stroke of luck that Ferdinand and Isabella had with Columbus.

The time for dreaming was back in 2004 when everybody was signing the dotted line and fantasising about being rich.

Want to find an accurate historical cognate to Ireland's current situation? Think of Hungary after the Russian tanks rolled in in 1956, and the long wait until 1989.
 


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