53% support unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks - Irish Daily Mail poll 29/12/17

Emily Davison

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Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20171229/281479276790344

As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
2. 26.8 % are against
3. 12.7% are don't knows
4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

- Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
- It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
- Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
- Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
- All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
- 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
- No gender difference
- FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
- FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
- Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
- 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

(and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
 


Round tower

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Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20171229/281479276790344

As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
2. 26.8 % are against
3. 12.7% are don't knows
4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

- Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
- It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
- Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
- Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
- All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
- 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
- No gender difference
- FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
- FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
- Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
- 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

(and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
Link not working, don't pay any heed to OP, they have being proved to being wrong
 

Finbar10

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Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-daily-mail/20171229/281479276790344

As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
2. 26.8 % are against
3. 12.7% are don't knows
4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

- Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
- It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
- Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
- Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
- All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
- 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
- No gender difference
- FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
- FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
- Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
- 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

(and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
There's a better link here: https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/29/poll-abortion with more detailed results. The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". Can't say I'm familiar with them.

It generally does seem out of kilter with previous (even fairly recent) surveys by RedC and IPSOS/MRBI. Maybe there has been a big shift in opinion. However, they do use random telephone polling. As was seen in UK election polling of this type, unless one is very careful, it can be hard to screen out certain demographic biases (even though one tries to do that). Other companies use this also but it can be hard to get right. I would have more confidence if such a result had been produced by RedC or similar established company. Then we'd have previous past results with similar methodology to compare them with (and a relative shift would be evident). This may be a shift or it may be an artifact of their methodology or telephone sampling techniques.
 
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ruserious

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While personally against abortion, in most cases, I have come to believe it is a personal choice for one to make. So I will probably vote to repeal but would advise against abortion in most cases in the unlikely event of my advice being sought on the issue.
 

Sync

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I’d view that as an outlier until shown otherwise. 41% of over 65s being in favour of it sounds...odd.
 

Emily Davison

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Link not working, don't pay any heed to OP, they have being proved to being wrong
I cannot do anything about the link, it's beyond my technical capabilities but it works for me. Try googling the following:

Irish daily mail abortion poll

I have summarised most of it in the OP because of the difficulties with the linking.

In addition the polls is mentioned in the Irish Examiner, but oddly the IE does not mention their source:

Katherine Zappone: Straight

An opinion poll, last week, suggests 53% of people would support a straight repeal vote in a referendum and legislation allowing unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.
 

The_SR

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I’d view that as an outlier until shown otherwise. 41% of over 65s being in favour of it sounds...odd.
I think it fits. The 8th failed. Even people who are against abortion realise this and see the need for change.
 

Emily Davison

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There's a better link here: https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-post/2017/12/29/poll-abortion with more detailed results. The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". Can't say I'm familiar with them.

It generally does seem out of kilter with previous (even fairly recent) surveys by RedC and IPSOS/MRBI. Maybe there has been a big shift in opinion. However, they do use random telephone polling. As was seen in UK election polling of this type, unless one is very careful, it can be hard to screen out certain demographic biases (even though one tries to do that). Other companies use this also but it can be hard to get right. I would have more confidence if such a result had been produced by RedC or similar established company. Then we'd have previous past results with similar methodology to compare them with (and a relative shift would be evident). This may be a shift or it may be an artifact of their methodology or telephone sampling techniques.

Thanks for that link, it is much the same as the article. I've no idea about the difference between the polling companies. It does indeed seem a big shift. But if you think about it, in the last month alone many of the TD's have come out strongly pro choice. That is a big change as well. Perhaps they are reflecting the public mood. And the public mood will have been influenced by how well the Citizen's assembly was conducted followed on by the excellent handeling of the Oireachtas Committee under the chairmanship of Catherine Noone. People have been listening and engaging, one assumes.
 

Half Nelson

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While personally against abortion, in most cases, I have come to believe it is a personal choice for one to make. So I will probably vote to repeal but would advise against abortion in most cases in the unlikely event of my advice being sought on the issue.
It's a choice we'll all be asked to make... and to live and die with the consequences of our action.

How fitting that such a poll would be announced on the day after we recall the mass slaughter of innocent children.
 

Emily Davison

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I’d view that as an outlier until shown otherwise. 41% of over 65s being in favour of it sounds...odd.
Here are the figures per age group - it excludes don't knows:

18-24 85% to 15%
25-34 77% to 23%
35-44 69% to 31%
45-54 75%to 25%
55-64 61% to 39%
65+ 51% to 49% only group not in favour of Repeal, but just barely

Also odd is that the 45-54 age group is strong that the age group above and below. There must be a reason for this. Something that happened to that age group. Anyone with any ideas.
 

The_SR

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It's a choice we'll all be asked to make... and to live and die with the consequences of our action.

How fitting that such a poll would be announced on the day after we recall the mass slaughter of innocent children.
You do understand that the more you vent this bile the more likely the 8th will go?
 

Half Nelson

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You do understand that the more you vent this bile the more likely the 8th will go?
Your concern is touching.:|

If there's something incorrect in my posts then point it out.
 

razorblade

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A referendum should be put to the people why isn't that being done and I don't mean repeal i mean an actual referendum whether to introduce abortion into Ireland or not repeal solves nothing it doesn't get to the heart of the issue which is abortion and whether the majority support it or not how is anyone to know when its being ignored.
 

Dame_Enda

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A lot of referendums that were expected to pass failed because the dks voted against. Could be close.
 

Emily Davison

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A referendum should be put to the people why isn't that being done and I don't mean repeal i mean an actual referendum whether to introduce abortion into Ireland or not repeal solves nothing it doesn't get to the heart of the issue which is abortion and whether the majority support it or not how is anyone to know when its being ignored.
The vote is going to be to repeal or not. With abortion legislation drafted in advance. Not sure what your issue is on this. We all know that if the 8th goes abortion will be brought in.

And abortion already exists in Ireland. With 2000 women taking abortion pills, with abortion in life or suicide cases. And it also exists for the 10 Irish women who avail of their constitution right to travel for abortion.
 

pedagogus

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A referendum should be put to the people why isn't that being done and I don't mean repeal i mean an actual referendum whether to introduce abortion into Ireland or not repeal solves nothing it doesn't get to the heart of the issue which is abortion and whether the majority support it or not how is anyone to know when its being ignored.
Referenda in Ireland are always about putting in or taking out amendments to the constitution. They are not opinion polls like the Brexit referendum in Britain.
 

Congalltee

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I don’t like telephone polls.
But including “rather not say” redeems that slightly (they are more likely to be anti-choice).

The main problem is the question:
“If a referendum were held to repeal the 8th amendment that is to make abortion unrestricted during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy how would you vote?"”

The actual question will go far beyond that eg removing people’s veto on abortion, allowing parliament and courts (domestic and European) expand, with categories beyond 12 weeks eg rape allegations (which will scare some men) and possibly dealing with women’s health (basically 1967 act regime).

That 47% can’t support this narrow proposition is worrying.
 

Deadlock

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Here are the figures per age group - it excludes don't knows:

18-24 85% to 15%
25-34 77% to 23%
35-44 69% to 31%
45-54 75%to 25%
55-64 61% to 39%
65+ 51% to 49% only group not in favour of Repeal, but just barely

Also odd is that the 45-54 age group is strong that the age group above and below. There must be a reason for this. Something that happened to that age group. Anyone with any ideas.
My reading of the 45-54 age group, in which I myself am, would be that that demographic represented teenagers just about old enough to vote in the referendum on the original 8th Amendment, or younger. I recall a hard line taken in our Second level schools at the time. A reaction to that and the ensuing mess and confusion perhaps?
 

Sync

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