£54 Bn Quid Divorce Bill Deadlock. Time for Ireland to Step into the Breach!

yosef shompeter

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Britain's new concessions are not enough, EU leaders tell May | Reuters

Time for Ireland to show its generosity and step into the breach. It's only €60 Bn (£54 Billion Quid) and we've loadza experience paying bills like that.
After all, we'll end up paying for it anyway over the years in lost trade, border costs, transit costs, flyover costs etc.

No! I have not stopped taking my medication

{Maybe I should explain myself better!
There's a lot of studies out there on how negotiations run. Frequently you have the two groups sitting and talking for hours (or days) about topics around the main issue. Often they are deadlocked for long periods of time.... it might all seem puzzling to an outside observer. Then all of a sudden there is a breakthrough to the relief of both sides... but it's a bit of a puzzle to those not in the know.
They say a good negotiator knows the game plan of his contender... and things get tense trying to eke concessions out of the other side. It's a waiting game so this explains how they are almost always long drawn-out. There is the vanity of the leaders and the danger of losing face... lots of things involved.
Probably both Barnier and May already know on how much they are prepared to compromise.
Sometimes the Ace cards are not at all or hardly ever mentioned... such as Britain's Nato Membership...
 
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yosef shompeter

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In my view the main sticking point... read concessions are
1) The €50 Bn... €100 Bn? settlement. That will might be dealt with last as it can be adjusted upward or downward... unless one side insists on principle
2) Market Access on such things as services...
3) Rights of expats.... that cuts both ways -- sings and roundabouts.
4) The border... Could be painful for poor old Ireland and the Continentals may have to help us out with the costs.
Sadly I get the feeling that the border issue will be handled last. Not good if it turns out to be a poisonous divorce.
 
D

Deleted member 17573

In my view the main sticking point... read concessions are
1) The €50 Bn... €100 Bn? settlement. That will might be dealt with last as it can be adjusted upward or downward... unless one side insists on principle
2) Market Access on such things as services...
3) Rights of expats.... that cuts both ways -- sings and roundabouts.
4) The border... Could be painful for poor old Ireland and the Continentals may have to help us out with the costs.
Sadly I get the feeling that the border issue will be handled last. Not good if it turns out to be a poisonous divorce.
I don't think the negotiations are as bogged down as many believe. It seems that minds are focused on just two issues - the EU wants money and the UK wants favourable access to EU markets, and that is the height of it. The rights of ex-pats can be agreed in 5 minutes and as for the Irish border.........it will be concluded, alas and with great regret, that there is no practical alternative to a hard border, softened by some waffle about technology.
 

Prof Honeydew

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What a capital idea. We could repay the Brits for the generosity they showed us when we got our independence. Insisted we take on 7% of their war debt and continue repaying land annuities to them while they, their aristocratic chums in the landed gentry and the City of London and the Masons who owned most of the businesses in the Free State whipped every last penny of capital and mobile assets back to Mother England. And just in case we got any ideas of looking elsewhere, we were told if we didn't tie our currency to sterling and surrender our monetary policy to the Bank of England, we would be barred forever from the international finance markets based in London.

In fact, so greedy were they, there was nothing left to repay the war debts despite the Free State cutting expenditure to the bone (including reducing wages and pensions and all but eliminating capital spending). With their backs to the wall, the Cumann na nGaedhal government sold out within three years on the terms of the Boundary Commission agreed in the Treaty in return for the Brits reducing their demands to an annual bill in perpetuity of £3,000,000 to cover the annuities.

It mightn't sound much now but £3 million back then was 12% of the annual budget. Put it in the context of this week's budget, that would be paying London €7 BILLION a year forever. Yup. FOREVER. Way, way, way more than we've paid for the bailout and without any end to it either.

And that's why, unlike Finland, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and the Baltic states, Ireland's economy never got off the ground between post-WW1 independence and the Great Depression. The others started with a clean slate and there was some capital still around to kickstart investment and rebuild war damage. We, on the other hand, had been ransacked of whatever cash was left. Even Germany got a break once it dawned on the Yanks, Brits and Frogs that they'd overdone the war repayments and were able to replace their currency after its collapse in 1923 - an option closed off to us by the Bank of England.

The Brits are disputing a bill of about €50-70 billion owed to the EU. Again, to put it in context, that would be the equivalent of us meeting a ONCE-OFF contribution €4-5 billion or an addition of 2-2.5% to the national debt - a good deal less than we've been doing EVERY year since 2009. Furthermore, the basis of that liability it is far sounder than the debts they lumped onus in 1922.

Yeah, sure. We should be jumping with joy at the prospect of ingraciating ourselves with these grasping cheapskates.
 
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Nemesiscorporation

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Oct 2, 2011
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13,878
Ireland should make an offer to break the stalemate.

Tell UK to leave Northern Ireland and take DUP, TUV and PBP with them, pay for Northern Ireland for 1 year and reduce the payment to EU by €25billion.

That would get rid of UK's biggest headache and reduce the amount going to the EU, making it more palatable to the English population.
 

mr_anderson

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I don't think the negotiations are as bogged down as many believe. It seems that minds are focused on just two issues - the EU wants money and the UK wants favourable access to EU markets, and that is the height of it. The rights of ex-pats can be agreed in 5 minutes and as for the Irish border.........it will be concluded, alas and with great regret, that there is no practical alternative to a hard border, softened by some waffle about technology.

The border simply isn't an issue.
Ain't nobody going to rock the NI boat.
The border (or lack thereof) will be the same in 10 years as it is today.
 

Catalpast

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Nov 17, 2012
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25,560
Britain's new concessions are not enough, EU leaders tell May | Reuters

Time for Ireland to show its generosity and step into the breach. It's only €60 Bn (£54 Billion Quid) and we've loadza experience paying bills like that.
After all, we'll end up paying for it anyway over the years in lost trade, border costs, transit costs, flyover costs etc.

No! I have not stopped taking my medication

{Maybe I should explain myself better!
There's a lot of studies out there on how negotiations run. Frequently you have the two groups sitting and talking for hours (or days) about topics around the main issue. Often they are deadlocked for long periods of time.... it might all seem puzzling to an outside observer. Then all of a sudden there is a breakthrough to the relief of both sides... but it's a bit of a puzzle to those not in the know.
They say a good negotiator knows the game plan of his contender... and things get tense trying to eke concessions out of the other side. It's a waiting game so this explains how they are almost always long drawn-out. There is the vanity of the leaders and the danger of losing face... lots of things involved.
Probably both Barnier and May already know on how much they are prepared to compromise.
Sometimes the Ace cards are not at all or hardly ever mentioned... such as Britain's Nato Membership...
There is no legal mechanism to make the UK pay a penny towards the EU
 

mr_anderson

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Joined
Dec 12, 2007
Messages
9,711
Ireland should make an offer to break the stalemate.

Tell UK to leave Northern Ireland and take DUP, TUV and PBP with them, pay for Northern Ireland for 1 year and reduce the payment to EU by €25billion.

That would get rid of UK's biggest headache and reduce the amount going to the EU, making it more palatable to the English population.

Can you pay my annual Norn Iron subsidy ?
Because I'm all out as it is.
It means that public spending per capita in Northern Ireland will increase to £11,535, 31 per cent more than the £8,816 spent per head in England, the Telegraph revealed.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/821676/DUP-theresa-may-spending-taxpayer-costs-brexit-ruth-davidson-northern-ireland-eddie-bone

If you're anti-Brit, then there's no better revenge than forcing them to hold onto the northern black hole.
 

Gin Soaked

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Ireland should make an offer to break the stalemate.

Tell UK to leave Northern Ireland and take DUP, TUV and PBP with them, pay for Northern Ireland for 1 year and reduce the payment to EU by €25billion.

That would get rid of UK's biggest headache and reduce the amount going to the EU, making it more palatable to the English population.
And the beautiful irony of the Unionist immigrants ending up in little England. So much for controlling their boarders from primitive religious extremists who live on welfare....
 

SPN

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There will be no Brexit.

Wait and see.
 

Tribal

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There will be no Brexit.

Wait and see.
There'll be a transition fudge but A50 will be completed, not to spare the UK but to protect the EU.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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Messages
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Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our English dead.
In peace there's nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour'd rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;
Let pry through the portage of the head
Like the brass cannon; let the brow o'erwhelm it
As fearfully as doth a galled rock
O'erhang and jutty his confounded base,
Swill'd with the wild and wasteful ocean.
Now set the teeth and stretch the nostril wide,
Hold hard the breath and bend up every spirit
To his full height. On, on, you noblest English.
Whose blood is fet from fathers of war-proof!
Fathers that, like so many Alexanders,
Have in these parts from morn till even fought
And sheathed their swords for lack of argument:
Dishonour not your mothers; now attest
That those whom you call'd fathers did beget you.
Be copy now to men of grosser blood,
And teach them how to war. And you, good yeoman,
Whose limbs were made in England, show us here
The mettle of your pasture; let us swear
That you are worth your breeding; which I doubt not;
For there is none of you so mean and base,
That hath not noble lustre in your eyes.
I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game's afoot:
Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
Cry 'God for Harry, England, and Saint George!'
 

McTell

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Oct 16, 2012
Messages
6,596
Twitter
No
Some pol made the point that if it was greece leaving the EU, nobody would ask them to pay very much.

The 50-100 Bn is because the UK is no. 2 at paying in.


There's a few sliding-scale solutions along the lines of -

No deal = 0 payment to EU + WTO rules tax at 10% ± + UK expels many EU citizens.

Middling deal = 40 Bn payment to EU + a special rate of 5% ± + UK keeps EU citizens in work.

Great deal = 100 Bn payment to EU + 3% tax on goods + UK keeps EU citizens in work and their dependants.


All the rest is photo-ops
 


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