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A future Tory-Ukip government?


Little_Korean

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What with the rise of UKIP votes, is the party previously dismissed as consisting of 'fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists' a potential coalition partner in a future UK government?

Ukip: the party that's coming in from the cold

the UK Independence party, which has spent well over a year regularly scoring at least 6% or 7% in the polls, and often climbing as high as 11%, thus relegating the poor old Lib Dems to fourth place. At last week's Corby byelection, the party managed an impressive 14.3%, its highest-ever share of the poll in any such contest. That day, there was also a byelection in the seat of Cardiff South and Penarth, where it managed 6.1% – not nearly as convincing, but still its highest share in any Welsh election. And in the same day's somewhat shambolic elections for police and crime commissioners, Ukip's share of the vote per candidate once again put it ahead of Nick Clegg's lot.
Yesterday, the Tory MP and party vice-chairman Michael Fabricant published a report titled The Pact, in which he advocates an electoral deal between the Conservatives and Ukip, on the basis of a referendum on Britain's EU membership, and a place in a future Tory cabinet for the Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
Personally, I doubt this, as Ukip votes tend to come from disgruntled Tory voters - if anything, Ukip could very well deny the Tories another term in office by splitting the centre-right vote, at the same time that the left-wing vote is likely to be sucked up by Labour at the Lib Dem's expense.

Also, Ukip has had a relatively easy ride from the media spotlight, as no one seriously thinks of them as players in the big league and there's been less attention shone on them. But if that was to change, then the bizarre personalities of the likes of Nigel Farage (the top photo in the article says it all), their love of hands-in-the-till, and the inherent contradictions of a Eurosceptic party having its most success in the European Parliament will be put under the microscope of media scrutiny, something I suspect Ukip is poorly equipped for.
 


Ryan Tubbs

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UKIP have never won a parliamentary seat. They have never come within an asses roar of a parliamentary seat. They will never come within an asses roar of a parliamentary seat.

And yet the hysteria which they seem to cause among Tory circles just grows and grows.
 

livingstone

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The Tory 'hysteria' is justified not because UKIP will win seats (they won’t) but because UKIP can, will and already are costing Tory seats by splitting the right-of-centre vote and the euroskeptic vote. It’s a really tough position for the Tories because the CBI, BCC and other business groups, with whom the Tories need a good relationship, are pro-EU and pro-immigration. A Tory lurch to the right on either would alienate more moderate centre right supporters. But a failure to cater to the hard right of the party means more votes being sucked up by UKIP.

As for the OP, though, there is no chance of UKIP holding the balance of power anytime soon. The problem for UKIP is that their support is too spread out. Even though the Lib Dems are running about the same as UKIP in polls, they will still win 20 or so seats on 9% because what vote they have is concentrated in the south-west and parts of Scotland. Because UKIP doesn’t really have a solid geographical base, its support is too thinly spread across England to have a real shout at a Parliamentary seat, let along enough to get them into balance of power territory.
 

TheLastLazyGun

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UKIP have never won a parliamentary seat.
Yet.

They will never come within an asses roar of a parliamentary seat.
I suspect you'll regret saying that after the 2015 General Election if the Government doesn't give us the EU in/out referendum which polls show the majority of the British people want.

And yet the hysteria which they seem to cause among Tory circles just grows and grows.
The Conservatives, as well as Labour and the LibDems, are RIGHT to be worried about UKIP. They are a party very much on the rise and have all but supplanted the LibDems as Britain's third party. In the EU Parliament they are already Britain's second-biggest party having gained more votes that Labour (UKIP got 16.5% of the British votes and Labour just 15.7%) and the pro-EU LibDems in the last EUSSR elections and finishing behind only the Conservatives (so it shows you want the British electorate thinks of the EU).

And if we don't get an EU in/out referendum by 2015 then UKIP's rise will absolutely shoot up as rightly angry Conservative and Labour voters flock to UKIP.

If, for one, will vote for UKIP in 2015, just as I voted for them in the 2009 EUSSR Elections (along with 2,498,225 other people), should we not get the EU in/out referendum by then.

There are two choices for Cameron, and neither are good for the Europhiles. Either:

1) He gives the British people the EU in/out referendum that polls show the majority of Britons want and in which polls show the majority of Britons will vote to leave the EU by the next election in 2015, or;

2) He doesn't give us the much-wanted referendum by the next election in 2015 and he will therefore see his party lose precious votes to the very much up-and-coming UKIP in that election.

His wise move would be to choose option No1, which will surely guarantee that his party will win the 2015 General Election and Britain will then start proceedings to exit the EU.
 
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TheLastLazyGun

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The Tory 'hysteria' is justified not because UKIP will win seats (they won’t) but because UKIP can, will and already are costing Tory seats by splitting the right-of-centre vote and the euroskeptic vote. It’s a really tough position for the Tories because the CBI, BCC and other business groups, with whom the Tories need a good relationship, are pro-EU and pro-immigration.
It's not the CBI and BCC that the Tories should be listening to - it's the British public. And the British public are a mostly Euroskeptic public who are also very much concerned about immigration into Britain. The vats majority of the Briiths public think immigration is too high and want it cutting.

And if the Tories and the other two main parties keep ignoring British people's concerns about the EU and immigration then UKIP will continue to rise.

The Tories should tell the CBI to sod off and start listening to the people who REALLY matter - the British public.
 

livingstone

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Yet.
I suspect you'll regret saying that after the 2015 General Election if the Government doesn't give us the EU in/out referendum which polls show the majority of the British people want.
In which constituency do you realistically see UKIP winning a seat in 2015?

Polls might show that people want an in/out referendum, but how many polls show that sufficient number of people will base their vote on that alone, as opposed to issues of the economy, public services, welfare, jobs etc.

The Conservatives, as well as Labour and the LibDems, are RIGHT to be worried about UKIP. They are a party very much on the rise and have all but supplanted the LibDems as Britain's third party.
I will offer you any odds you like that the Lib Dems will have more seats than UKIP after the 2015 Election.

In the EU Parliament they are already Britain's second-biggest party having gained more votes that Labour and the pro-EU LibDems in the last EUSSR elections and finishing behind only the Conservatives (so it shows you want the British electorate thinks of the EU).
EU elections are different both in the voting system used but also in the issues that drive voters. The last EU elections took place against a backdrop of major dissatisfaction with the Labour Government and UKIP benefited. There is no evidence to suggest that they will win any seats in a general election.

And if we don't get an EU in/out referendum by 2015 then UKIP's rise will absolutely shoot up as rightly angry Conservative and Labour voters flock to UKIP.

If, for one, will vote for UKIP in 2015 should we not get the EU in/out referendum by then.
How many Labour 2012 voters do you think voted Labour in the expectation of an in/out referendum? I’d say pretty few. Likewise, even if people want a referendum, there is nothing to suggest that that fact alone will decide their vote.

Simple challenge – name the seats where UKIP will win a seat in 2015? There are none.
 

TheLastLazyGun

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Be careful what you wish for. UKIP in government in Westminster would mean the sealing of the border and restrictions on the rights and identity of Irish citizens in both Great Britain and the North.
UKIP have many attractive policies to the British people.

A UKIP government would take Britain out of the EU and allow elected Brits, rather than unelected foreigners, to rule Britain.

They will cut immigration, which is way too high.

They will increase defence spending and enlarge and strengthen the British Armed Forces.

They will re-introduce grammar schools.

It's no wonder that they are quickly gaining in popularity and are now very much Britain's third party, supplanting the unpopular LibDems.
 

Little_Korean

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Be careful what you wish for. UKIP in government in Westminster would mean the sealing of the border and restrictions on the rights and identity of Irish citizens in both Great Britain and the North.
When UK politicians talk of immigration policies, they're not including NI for the obvious reasons that it's part of the UK and the people there British citizens. So no Iron Curtain around the borders of Armagh, Down, Fermanagh or Tyrone anytime soon, no matter who's in the Westminster driving seat.
 

livingstone

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It's not the CBI and BCC that the Tories should be listening to - it's the British public. And the British public are a mostly Euroskeptic public who are also very much concerned about immigration into Britain. The vats majority of the Briiths public think immigration is too high and want it cutting.

And if the Tories and the other two main parties keep ignoring British people's concerns about the EU and immigration then UKIP will continue to rise.

The Tories should tell the CBI to sod off and start listening to the people who REALLY matter - the British public.
Except that there's little evidence that people base their vote on European issues more than jobs and growth.

Have you any idea of voters priorities in the UK? Jobs and growth are the biggest issues.

A party which pledges growth while being seen to ignore business will be seen a lame duck. There is a market in Britain for a sensgle, economically right-of-centre and socially liberal party. The Tories under Cameron managed to make itself that party after the divisions of the nineties. It would be very poorly advised to abandon those who base their votes on the economy in order to win the tiny minority who are mainly motivated by EU issues.
 

livingstone

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I think they have a good chance of winning the upcoming Rotherham by-election.
I'll see you back here when they don't.

Now, I will give you that they will possibly come in second. Indeed, in 2015, in lots of places they might lose by less than they lost in 2010, but they will not win seats.
 

Little_Korean

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Do you agree with my reading of UKIP policies that Irish citizens resident in Great Britain and Northern Ireland will have to become British citizens to retain their existing rights?
No talk from Ukip about cancelling the Common Travel Area, so no.
 

blokesbloke

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Under the current voting system UKIP have very little chance of getting a single MP - they've never managed it before.

They've had limited success in local elections, and outstanding success in European ones, perhaps ironically, when they came second last time and beat both Labour the Lib Dems, with just under 2.5 million votes.

So there's clearly enormous potential support for them but until they start getting MPs, they've got little hope.

If they could get a few seats then in a close election they could easily go into alliance with the Tories, but they would surely demand an in/out referendum as the price for coalition and I can't see the Tories really going for that - they whinge about the EU all the time but the truth is they supported the UK joining and have repeatedly signed up to new EU treaties.

If the voting reform act had been passed - as required by the pro-EU Lib Dems, then UKIP would have had a foothold.

As it is, talk of an alliance with UKIP is fairly pointless.

I suppose they do steal Tory votes and lose the Tories seats in some close elections, often handing the seat to a Labour or Lib Dem who is likely to be more pro-EU.

So I suppose they could do some kind of pact with the Tories not to run candidiates, but so far they've only done that voluntarily when they know the Tory candidate is anti-EU.

At the moment UKIP just don't have enough to offer the Tories and I'm not sure they ever will.

Individual Tory MPs will always flirt with UKIP, but I can't see the Tory high command going for a formal alliance any time soon.
 

Aristodemus

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Be careful what you wish for. UKIP in government in Westminster would mean the sealing of the border and restrictions on the rights and identity of Irish citizens in both Great Britain and the North.
Just because they say this is their policy does not mean it becomes law if they ever found themselves in Government. The British Labour Party always paid lip service to Clause 4 of their constitution which effectively meant Nationalisation of banks etc. Even Tony Blair subscribed to it! Not unlike our leaders talking about the "reintegration of the national territory". Optics
 

Little_Korean

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No mention of the Common Travel Area in UKIPs policies. No mention of whether an Irish citizen retains their rights under the 1949 Ireland Act.
If they haven't talked of removing said rights, then I think it's safe to assume they'll be leaving things the way they are.
 

blokesbloke

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I think they have a good chance of winning the upcoming Rotherham by-election.
I hope you are right but I very much doubt it. I've heard about seats UKIP have a good chance of winning before and they never even come close, let alone win.

Nigel Farage is their leader and most prominent person but he couldn't even win the Speaker's seat where by convention no rival major parties stood in the last election - they did dismally.

British people are above all pragmatic when they vote and under our system, a vote for a minority candidate is so often seen as a "wasted" vote - it's incredibly hard to win in England unless you're Tory or Labour - or possibly Lib Dem but given their recent post-Coalition performance, that's no so true anymore.

If everyone who claimed they wanted to vote for a minority candidate actually got off their arse and voted for one, they political scene could be changed overnight - but the combination of the apathy of many who don't vote at all, and the conservative pragmatism of those who do - mean it so rarely happens.

Believe me I've been disappointed too many times! I've voted for many minority and independent candidates and none of them have ever done even a bit well.
 

blokesbloke

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No mention of the Common Travel Area in UKIPs policies. No mention of whether an Irish citizen retains their rights under the 1949 Ireland Act.

Plenty of mentions of taking control of the UK borders and the rights and privileges of British Citizenship and the lack of rights under Permanent Leave to Remain status.
They don't mention a lot of current laws in their policies either way - which I would take to mean they were satisfied with them, have no intention of getting rid of them, and therefore see no point in mentioning them at all.

I can't think of any party who specifically mentions that they will retain a particular law or policy unless there is some reason to believe it is under threat, such as a rival party saying they'd repeal it.

As no such measures are planned, UKIP would surely mention the Common Travel Area or 1949 Ireland Act only if they intended to amend or repeal them - otherwise their manifesto would look like a telephone book with a list of all existing legislation and them saying they agree with most of it and will keep it!

The agreement with Ireland pre-dated the UK (and Ireland) joining the EU by decades and was never particularly controversial that I can recall - I see no reason why UKIP would oppose it in principle.

Besides, so many people have Irish relatives, friends and connections to Ireland it would be a stupid policy which would cost them support.
 

Little_Korean

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I don't know any Irish citizen in either GB or the North that would take such a sanguine view of UKIP when in plain english their policies do not protect their existing status, to say the least.
Do you have evidence that Ukip intends, if given the chance, to impinge the CTA? Otherwise you're reading a lot into very little.

Immigration debates in the UK tend to revolve around immigrants from recent countries in the euro zone and the flood of cheap labour that accompanied it. The Irish haven't featured prominently in such debates for donkeys' years.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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The Tory 'hysteria' is justified not because UKIP will win seats (they won’t) but because UKIP can, will and already are costing Tory seats by splitting the right-of-centre vote and the euroskeptic vote. It’s a really tough position for the Tories because the CBI, BCC and other business groups, with whom the Tories need a good relationship, are pro-EU and pro-immigration. A Tory lurch to the right on either would alienate more moderate centre right supporters. But a failure to cater to the hard right of the party means more votes being sucked up by UKIP.

As for the OP, though, there is no chance of UKIP holding the balance of power anytime soon. The problem for UKIP is that their support is too spread out. Even though the Lib Dems are running about the same as UKIP in polls, they will still win 20 or so seats on 9% because what vote they have is concentrated in the south-west and parts of Scotland. Because UKIP doesn’t really have a solid geographical base, its support is too thinly spread across England to have a real shout at a Parliamentary seat, let along enough to get them into balance of power territory.
I would have to agree with you there, they have 9% of the UK vote in recent opinion polls, if they were in Ireland they would be as large proportionally as Sinn Féin. In a first past the post scenario they are costing the Tories lots of seats.

As an aside one major point the late Garrett Fitzgerald made was that first past the post in Ireland would be disastrous as the vote for most major parties was spread relatively evenly, thus of course creating the possibility of total wipe out each time government changed.
 

Conor the Bold

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What I posted earlier. Just a reminder:

The clue is in the use of the words "entry to the UK" and "UK citizens". No mention of Irish citizens, just EU citizens and British citizens. No mention of the CTA but most certainly there is a commitment to taking control of the UK border, which as you may have noticed meanders a bit around Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth.
The CTA also includes the Isle of Man, Jersey & Guernsey. Who are not part of the UK or part of the EU. Reading a lot into a little me thinks.
 

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