A Geopolitical Tectonic Shift

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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With six days to go to inauguration day, the US wrestles with the fact that the president-elect's team has had intimate contact with foreign agencies namely the Russian state. Shockingly it turns out that incoming National Security Advisor was in contact with the Russian Ambassador over the Christmas without mandate, and worse still, this could only be revealed through a FISA warrant meaning that a judge had reasonable suspicion to grant the warrant in the first place.

AP Source: Trump aide in frequent contact with Russia envoy

The American state is now effectively in a state of paralysis where not challenging the Siberian candidate means that the Russians will have undue influence at the highest level of the state, and where challenging it through the Logan act will in effect create social friction where the disenfranchised subsociety will take to violence in reaction to their candidate not being elected.

In both cases, Russia benefits.

As this happens, and we are to believe it coincidence, Russia's other main geopolitical goal in the splintering of the EU occurs through Brexit. Now this is where things become a little more interesting, because the coincidence isn't through Russian direct interference, but rather through the US/UK axis suffering the same demographic dissonance with the post war outlooks in both countries being rather romantic about bringing back the old post war eras which are entirely incongruent with the modern era post globalism. Even if you should completely disagree with me, you must at least consider it interesting that the two countries most associated with the western democratic world order established since WWII should coincidently happen to fall at the same time....we really have not seen such a large shift since the fall of communism....and on this alone we should take note.

From Russia's perspective, the weakening of the US/European axis is the ultimate opportunity, the destruction of Western liberalism and democracy towards more authoritarian structures aligns the world more towards the Russian experience where be it Tsar, Commissar, or President, little has ever changed. By fracturing the leadership of the US, the integrity of Europe, and calling in to question the very existence of NATO, geopolitically the world will be extremely more aligned with Russian interests.

But Russia is just a mere Petro-state in reality, going back to the post Soviet international order, in 1990 we had a truly monopolar world with the US being the ONLY superpower. To a point where Fukuyama declared the end of history and where the American neo-cons planned for the American century. As you'll see, their focus was misdirected towards the middle east while allowing Putin to return Russia back to order while failing to marginalise the growth of China.

Enter the multipolar world...even Kissinger as far back as the 70s knew that China would be a major power. Rather than fight a war against two communist powers, he found it wiser instead to enjoy detente with China while the US wrestled with the USSR. All the while America was breaking it's back on pointless middle eastern wars, and Russia was getting it's sh1t together, China was GROWING, majorly growing to a point where China now owns the US dollar such is the vastness of its currency reserves.

In the multipolar world...who are the superpowers? The US remains, Europe should have been(now fractured), and China has arrived. In this context, as Putin's authoritarian Russia and legally compromised America struggle while an Endangered Europe looks on, you tell me who stands to benefit? If there was such a thing as the "Asian Union", the west would have been finished long ago. But this is not to be, instead as the Asian powers live under the mutual understanding that equilibrium is simply returning to the East as it was for over a thousand years before the blip of Western hegemony, we'll find that the world order we have lived under our entire lives is now endangered, and quite possibly extinct.

Make no mistake, we are witnessing history right before our very eyes, and while we struggle to explain it on local and ideological terms, the wider story tells us that something much greater, much bigger, much more significant is happening in our lifetime.

步步高升
 
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the secretary

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How could anyone call China a communist country!
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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How could anyone call China a communist country!
A little beside the point, but an interesting one to note all the same in that Asian communism bears little relation to European and Russian forms of communism. China is in effect a technocratic state, but the interesting part of Asian perspectives is the need for stability of the state within an extremely densely populated space. Confucian thought features quite a bit as well in terms of keeping order in society with harmony as the desirable outcome. Given the violent and chaotic experiences of the 20th century, it's hard to blame them even though it is in conflict with our enlightenment era idealism.
 

Truth.ie

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My eyes hurt reading that OP.
I dont know. Should we hate Trump? Putin? China?
One of Trump's aides talked to the Russian envoy over Christmas? Wait. Is this good or bad?
The Chinese writing at the end of the post? This is really bad. Right?
Or really good?
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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My eyes hurt reading that OP.
I dont know. Should we hate Trump? Putin? China?
One of Trump's aides talked to the Russian envoy over Christmas? Wait. Is this good or bad?
The Chinese writing at the end of the post? This is really bad. Right?
Or really good?
When it comes to geopolitical order, it's really out of our hands, it's the larger motions of how the world changes. Hate/Like whoever you want, but in terms of it being good or bad, that's all down to where you happen to be. I'd say that the present is a bad time for the West in the larger scale of things for the reasons outlined above.
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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When it comes to geopolitical order, it's really out of our hands, it's the larger motions of how the world changes. Hate/Like whoever you want, but in terms of it being good or bad, that's all down to where you happen to be. I'd say that the present is a bad time for the West in the larger scale of things for the reasons outlined above.
Have we all forgotten the cold war when geopolitics was a cold hard reality?
 

Truth.ie

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When it comes to geopolitical order, it's really out of our hands, it's the larger motions of how the world changes. Hate/Like whoever you want, but in terms of it being good or bad, that's all down to where you happen to be. I'd say that the present is a bad time for the West in the larger scale of things for the reasons outlined above.
Thanks for clearing things up.
 

wombat

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I'm old enough to remember the Reagan conspiracy where the Democrats claimed the Republicans contacted the Iranians to delay releasing the hostages. My guess is that Trump will be forced to resign because of incompetance or an old business deal.
 

GDPR

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We are now living in a period when the Old Order is shifting into the New and all domestic political-economic arrangements are inherently unstable.

What we have now is sheer power politics on the global level - there is no ideology behind any of it. There is not even an external logic or rationale such as economic gains, because we are all out of big resources like oil and the world financial system is fooked.

This is purely stochastic. When that happens, chance alone will dictate the outcome. Im going with war. You can always count on war when the elites no longer feel confident.
 

Truth.ie

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I'm old enough to remember the Reagan conspiracy where the Democrats claimed the Republicans contacted the Iranians to delay releasing the hostages. My guess is that Trump will be forced to resign because of incompetance or an old business deal.
Link.
I'm of the same age and dont remember that.
Jimmy Carter tried to free the hostages but the rescue helicopters crashed in the Iranian desert.
Reagan was an actor at the time.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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It is an interesting thought that war might exist to provide a brutal form of certainty. I can see the logic in the philosophy.
 

Truth.ie

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We are now living in a period when the Old Order is shifting into the New and all domestic political-economic arrangements are inherently unstable.

What we have now is sheer power politics on the global level - there is no ideology behind any of it. There is not even an external logic or rationale such as economic gains, because we are all out of big resources like oil and the world financial system is fooked.

This is purely stochastic. When that happens, chance alone will dictate the outcome. Im going with war. You can always count on war when the elites no longer feel confident.
Thats just jargon and as readable as Shinnerbot's posts.
 

wombat

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Link.
I'm of the same age and dont remember that.
Jimmy Carter tried to free the hostages but the rescue helicopters crashed in the Iranian desert.
Reagan was an actor at the time.
It all tied in with Iran Contra, some of them travelled to Tehran on Irish passports, they were trying to get the hostages released, the failed rescue attempt severely damaged Carter but he was on his way out anyway.
 

GDPR

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It is an interesting thought that war might exist to provide a brutal form of certainty. I can see the logic in the philosophy.
It is the ultimate logic.

The world today isnt predicated on any ideological or civilisational clashes, as some of our dafter posters believe, when they line up behind the US or Russia or contra Islam or feminism or vegetarians, God knows.

Nor are we yet at the point of resource wars, though that will come in the latter c21 when climate change really kicks in. You aint seen nothing yet if you think 4000 Syrian refugees are an onslaught.

DAVOS etc wants a technocracy - that is their view of govt in the c21 but I dont think they can impose it. We are currently just where the power politics of the era before WW1 was.

And we all know where that ended.
 

Truth.ie

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It is the ultimate logic.

The world today isnt predicated on any ideological or civilisational clashes, as some of our dafter posters believe, when they line up behind the US or Russia or contra Islam or feminism or vegetarians, God knows.

Nor are we yet at the point of resource wars, though that will come in the latter c21 when climate change really kicks in. You aint seen nothing yet if you think 4000 Syrian refugees are an onslaught.

DAVOS etc wants a technocracy - that is their view of govt in the c21 but I dont think they can impose it. We are currently just where the power politics of the era before WW1 was.

And we all know where that ended.
Good to know we wont be affected by climate change.
 

wombat

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It all tied in with Iran Contra, some of them travelled to Tehran on Irish passports, they were trying to get the hostages released, the failed rescue attempt severely damaged Carter but he was on his way out anyway.
Just looked up Iran Contra - came years after the hostages, they were completely unrelated. Not sure where the story about delaying the hostage release came from, way before d'internet, maybe it was in the Enquirer or I heard it in a Washington pub?
 

GDPR

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In terms of Europe, we are no longer the navel of the world.

The worlds political, economic and military centre of gravity has moved towards Asia and that is why poor countries like Yemen are being destroyed today - because the choke points are the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal. You have to get control there.

Yer man Brezinski, who has been in this game for a long time, says in his latest strategic vision, that its the Monsoon Plateau, composed of the Greater Indian Ocean, the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian Plateau, and even te Indonesian archipelago which is where the new geopolitical battles will be fought. The crucial bit for Europe is the Balkans - nothing new there. The rising powers of China and India make that certain. Global trade routes.

The US is going to go into conflict with China, Trump although he is thick as pig-sh*t has figured that out, because China wont submit to the American maritime realms doctrine.

Russia wants to dominate Eurasia. Its all obvious if you get a map out.
 

okibb

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WRT US/UK, we are seeing essentially the same thing - a populist insurrection against liberal globalisation.

It is clear the elites are not competent to manage this transition; I think Trump will muddle through with mediocrity, but I fear Teresa May is lacks the necessary vision.

The Franco-Saxon axis now ruling Europe is a hopeless case, lacking any direction and constantly firefighting. They have some commendable objectives which have become lost in their social economy model and the EU badly, critically needs reform if its model is to survive.

I see this movement as a reset, politically, socially and economically and I see it growing in 2017.

The Bilderbergs at Davos will shortly be spinning their world vision to us on our TV screens, but only laggards will be paying attention as the world moves to social media: Sums up the change IMHO.
 

Toland

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WRT US/UK, we are seeing essentially the same thing - a populist insurrection against liberal globalisation.

It is clear the elites are not competent to manage this transition; I think Trump will muddle through with mediocrity, but I fear Teresa May is lacks the necessary vision.

I see this as a reset, socially and economically.

The Bilderbergs at Davos will shortly be spinning their world vision to us on our TV screens, but only laggards will be paying attention as the world moves to social media: Sums up the change IMHO.
Pressing the reset button removes everything, not just the bad.
 


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