A groundbreaking election ......or reversion to the mean?

ScoobyDoo

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 14, 2014
Messages
923
Combined SF + SDLP share of the vote at NI assembly elections / % share of Assembly seats

1998: 40.8% 38.9%
2003: 40.5% 40.7%
2007: 41.4% 40.7%
2011: 40.2% 39.8%
2016: 36.0% 33.3%
2017: 39.8% 43.3%

Despite recording their second lowest share of the vote in Thursday's election, SF+SDLP now have their highest ever % share of the seats in the Assembly. So the reduction in seats appears to have assisted them here, previously % share of seats always much lower than vote %, now the other way around.

It appears having done relatively so badly in 2016 (only result outwith the narrow 39.8%-41.4% range), SF have now been able to spin this as a ground breaking election :cool:

Incredibly the amount of votes for SF+SDLP in 1998 was almost identical to 2017: 320,821 vs 320,203

Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 1998
 


Leinsterview

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 4, 2014
Messages
752
There is PBP. When all is said and done their desired political evolution, North and South, culminates in a unitary state. This makes them a pro-UI party and another fisher in the pro-UI pool of votes.
 

Se0samh

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2011
Messages
16,076
A groundbreaking election ......or reversion to the mean?


Unionist majority lost for the first time in a century, reversion to the mean?

Are you nuts?


[video=youtube;IH8K0bPc-BE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH8K0bPc-BE[/video]
 

Leinsterview

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 4, 2014
Messages
752
To get back to the OP, I think this is the most seismic election in Irish history since the 1918 GE: the unionist majority -- the raision d'etre of the Northern state -- has now gone. Probably for good.
The point must be made that the stay-at-home nationalist voter was prodded into action by Arlene Foster's unecumenical approach. Too much green triumphalism (and, let's face it, there has been a fair amount of it the last few days) could precipitate a converse phenomenon.
 
Last edited:

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
39,024
Unionist majority lost for the first time in a century, reversion to the mean?

Are you nuts?


[video=youtube;IH8K0bPc-BE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH8K0bPc-BE[/video]




Hobo was always nuts sir......
 

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
17,827
To get back to the OP, I think this is the most seismic election in Irish history since the 1918 GE: te unionist majority -- the raision d'etre of the Northern state -- has now gone. Probably for good.
The point must be made that the stay-at-home nationalist voter was prodded into action by Arlene Foster's unecumenical approach. Too much green triumphalism (and, let's face it, there has been a fair amount of it the last few days) could precipitate a converse phenomenon.
The demographics trends mean that in the longer term it will not matter how many well Unionism gets it vote out as they still will be in the minority. Future Imperfect: A snap shot of things to come rather than defining the current status.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
In terms of change the only story here is that the DUP no longer has the power to invoke the petition of concern by themselves. Everything else remains more or less the same with two power blocks which cannot force anything on each other. In unionist terms this comes as a big wake up call re tactics, disunity and the necessity to get their people to vote. The Sinners have given it a big push and it has worked out well for them in terms of convincing the drones that things are back on line, but this was their high water mark and they had a lot of help from useful idiots like the BBC and Mike Nesbitt. It will be interesting to see how the DUP and the UUP take things forward from here.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
The demographics trends mean that in the longer term it will not matter how many well Unionism gets it vote out as they still will be in the minority. Future Imperfect: A snap shot of things to come rather than defining the current status.
Take a look at the OP again Taggart.
 

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
17,827
Take a look at the OP again Taggart.
I did not say the change had happened but that the long term trends mean that it will occur. In this election the interesting thing is that SF took the young voters much to my personal surprise. This had a lot to do with SF use of modern political techniques probably gained from the fact that they now are always fighting elections of one sort or other.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
I did not say the change had happened but that the long term trends mean that it will occur. In this election the interesting thing is that SF took the young voters much to my personal surprise. This had a lot to do with SF use of modern political techniques probably gained from the fact that they now are always fighting elections of one sort or other.
They made a cynical calculation and it worked out well for them due to a number of unique factors. They have maximised their vote. In doing so they have provided a very timely wake up call to the unionist population in terms of them needing to vote, needing to vote tactically and needing to get rid of splinter parties. If I was Arlene I would sit tight for a few months and let the Provos wait. Then there will need to be another election.
 

Strawberry

Moderator
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
16,297
They made a cynical calculation and it worked out well for them due to a number of unique factors. They have maximised their vote. In doing so they have provided a very timely wake up call to the unionist population in terms of them needing to vote, needing to vote tactically and needing to get rid of splinter parties. If I was Arlene I would sit tight for a few months and let the Provos wait. Then there will need to be another election.
SF will still be the largest nationalist party if there's another election, and they will still refuse to work with Arlene as FM until the RHI debacle is investigated. Such a blatant attempt to over turn this election result by the DUP might actually bring the nationalist vote out in even larger numbers at another election too.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
SF will still be the largest nationalist party if there's another election, and they will still refuse to work with Arlene as FM until the RHI debacle is investigated. Such a blatant attempt to over turn this election result by the DUP might actually bring the nationalist vote out in even larger numbers at another election too.
They can refuse if they like and let us not forget that they blatantly and cynically used the opportunity to overturn the election result of just seven months ago. Arlene topped the poll so she has a mandate to be FM. The Sinner vote has peaked but the unionist vote has the potential to be increased after what happened last week.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
39,024
In terms of change the only story here is that the DUP no longer has the power to invoke the petition of concern by themselves. Everything else remains more or less the same with two power blocks which cannot force anything on each other. In unionist terms this comes as a big wake up call re tactics, disunity and the necessity to get their people to vote. The Sinners have given it a big push and it has worked out well for them in terms of convincing the drones that things are back on line, but this was their high water mark and they had a lot of help from useful idiots like the BBC and Mike Nesbitt. It will be interesting to see how the DUP and the UUP take things forward from here.


A contradiction in terms Mange, onionism is inclined to go backwards, they can't even stand still ffs.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
39,024
They can refuse if they like and let us not forget that they blatantly and cynically used the opportunity to overturn the election result of just seven months ago. Arlene topped the poll so she has a mandate to be FM. The Sinner vote has peaked but the unionist vote has the potential to be increased after what happened last week.

 

Strawberry

Moderator
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
16,297
They can refuse if they like and let us not forget that they blatantly and cynically used the opportunity to overturn the election result of just seven months ago. Arlene topped the poll so she has a mandate to be FM. The Sinner vote has peaked but the unionist vote has the potential to be increased after what happened last week.
There's no evidence that SF's vote has peaked, and the potential to energise the voters by taking the p1ss and calling yet another election works both ways. The nationalists could still come out in greater numbers, and they only need to take one or two seats and bang goes Arlene's so called mandate to be FM.

Still, if the DUP want to take that risk, bring it on.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
There's no evidence that SF's vote has peaked, and the potential to energise the voters by taking the p1ss and calling yet another election works both ways. The nationalists could still come out in greater numbers, and they only need to take one or two seats and bang goes Arlene's so called mandate to be FM.

Still, if the DUP want to take that risk, bring it on.
I'm sure that people with much more intimate knowledge on the number crunching than me will be making the calculations. Unionists do not have an equivalent to PIRA Volunteers running around dragging people out to vote, but that may change in the very near future.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
39,024
I'm sure that people with much more intimate knowledge on the number crunching than me will be making the calculations. Unionists do not have an equivalent to PIRA Volunteers running around dragging people out to vote, but that may change in the very near future.


Funniest of 2017 so far folks.....

 

Strawberry

Moderator
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
16,297
I'm sure that people with much more intimate knowledge on the number crunching than me will be making the calculations. Unionists do not have an equivalent to PIRA Volunteers running around dragging people out to vote, but that may change in the very near future.
*snort*

You know in about ten years time a unionist voting majority is going to be as unrealistic as a nationalist voting majority was ten years ago.
 

Covenanter

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2012
Messages
10,309
*snort*

You know in about ten years time a unionist voting majority is going to be as unrealistic as a nationalist voting majority was ten years ago.
I know that this has been predicted by republicans several times over the past twenty years, but has never come to pass. I think the RC church paedophile scandal played a big part in the reduction of the nationalist breeding programme. That and the fact that most people are happy living in the UK.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
39,024
I know that this has been predicted by republicans several times over the past twenty years, but has never come to pass. I think the RC church paedophile scandal played a big part in the reduction of the nationalist breeding programme. That and the fact that most people are happy living in the UK.
Pay particular attention Mange to this message.........

 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top