A Hard Border: Coming to an Island near you

ruserious

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Let's recap:

May has stated that the UK will not be remaining in the customs or single market.
The Irish government, backed by the EU has raised the possibility of NI maintaining the terms of the customs/single market.
Foster has said NI will depart the Union on the same terms as the rest of the U.K.

The Tories cannot usurp the DUP because foolishly, they now rely on the DUP for votes in Westminster.

18 months since Brexit and not a dickiebird on what the Irish border will look like. Two weeks left until the December deadline and Leo and Simon (quite rightly) threatening a veto on trade discussions unless Whitehall surprise us all with a credible border plan in two weeks.

All of the above makes it increasingly likely that there will be a hard border on the island because the DUP who have the Tories over a barrel, will not accept any kind of regulatory divergence from the rest of the U.K effectively putting the border in the Irish Sea.

So should the Irish State begin preparations for this eventuality?
Will violence return to the island?
Has the time come for FF FG Lab and SF to promote a United Ireland as State policy?

Answers on a postcard.
 


Wascurito

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The Tory/DUP hook-up is a temporary little arrangement. Indeed, the current tense truce between the Brexiteers and Bremainers in the Tory party is a temporary little arrangement too. I don't expect them both to still be in place in March 2019.
 

ThatsReasonable

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The Tory/DUP hook-up is a temporary little arrangement. Indeed, the current tense truce between the Brexiteers and Bremainers in the Tory party is a temporary little arrangement too. I don't expect them both to still be in place in March 2019.
I agree with that and I find myself reading the British papers a lot these days. I've never seen such a state of unpredictability in politics of a democratic country, in my memory.
 

Analyzer

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For the Brussels Bloc in Dail Eireann, this is yet another episode where the answer to Empire 2.0 and instruct the pepple that any adverse consequences come from those that no longer believe in the bullsh1t coming from Brussels.
 

blinding

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There will not be a hard border on the Island of Ireland . The Demographics of Northern Ireland are changing . The Population of the North of Ireland will not tolerate a Hard Border .

Any efforts to put a hard border in Ireland will hasten a United Ireland .
 

Civic_critic2

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You have to ask yourself what do the British want out of Ireland? The British presence in Ireland has always been first and foremost driven by their geostrategic concerns. Therefore you must understand what that means in the current context to understand what the British are going to do.

For example, if the British would like to provoke violence (as they have traditionally done, their entire presence here up until the present is based on the barrel of a gun) in order to create the conditions for a further retrenchment of unionism with a consolidated land area (bridgehead on the island to the British), then all they have to do is put up a hard border, wait for people to take potshots at it, then send out their sectarian death squads to escalate the situation and justify a military intervention while presenting themselves as reacting rather than acting. As always.

This is one possible scenario and happens to be one that is consistent with the last 4 centuries of history.

But it's all different now, innit?
 

ruserious

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There will not be a hard border on the Island of Ireland . The Demographics of Northern Ireland are changing . The Population of the North of Ireland will not tolerate a Hard Border .

Any efforts to put a hard border in Ireland will hasten a United Ireland .
But there ARE efforts to put a hard border in place. Foster has said that NI will exit the EU on the same terms as the rest of the U.K. That means a Hard Border.
 

silverharp

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You have to ask yourself what do the British want out of Ireland? The British presence in Ireland has always been first and foremost driven by their geostrategic concerns. Therefore you must understand what that means in the current context to understand what the British are going to do.

For example, if the British would like to provoke violence (as they have traditionally done, their entire presence here up until the present is based on the barrel of a gun) in order to create the conditions for a further retrenchment of unionism with a consolidated land area (bridgehead on the island to the British), then all they have to do is put up a hard border, wait for people to take potshots at it, then send out their sectarian death squads to escalate the situation and justify a military intervention while presenting themselves as reacting rather than acting. As always.

This is one possible scenario and happens to be one that is consistent with the last 4 centuries of history.

But it's all different now, innit?
im sure they would spin off NI in an IPO if there were any takers
 
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Calm down. BoJo has it under control.

"Crikey, bish bosh, eh? Look, as Cervantes said to some cove whose name I can't recall right now: 'in vino veritas, and all that."
 

blinding

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Telling people how great the Eu was / is while carrying out austerity , housing crisis , wage stagnation probably wasn’t the brightest but thats the kind of dumbass stuff you get from elites .

The British People wisely decided that when given the opportunity getting rid of the Eu elite was a very good idea .

One Elite is more than enough for anyone . Hopefully the British people will now shake up their home grown elite .
 

Civic_critic2

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The British are holding onto Gibraltar with just 28,000 people, the Falklands with something like 5000 people, Hong Kong they held onto as long as possible but there's no messing with the Chinese, Diego Garcia they simply ejected the population and still hold it on lease to the Americans, they hold onto various islands and bits of land in the Caribbean and south America as well as in the Pacific.

In N Ireland they have 900,000 people. On the basis of everything we have seen both historically and currently what are the chances of the British willingly giving up one of the most strategic areas on their left flank at a time of European and global tectonic shift when they still have 900,000 people onside? I'd say contingency planning would be the most sensible position for the Irish to take. I suspect the degenerate southern establishment are already making deals carving up the island between the British and the Europeans with a European military intervention - 'peacekeeping' - already being worked on.

We were recently told that there is a secret agreement between the British and the Irish establishment for RAF planes to travel freely through Irish airspace and target and shoot whatever they decide independently of Irish executive control.
How can a country be called a democracy when its decision-makers create secret diplomatic agreements? In what sense is the country a democracy when secret agreements are decided over the heads of the people as if they are so many peasants not to be involved in such things?
 

Nordie Northsider

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There will not be a hard border on the Island of Ireland . The Demographics of Northern Ireland are changing . The Population of the North of Ireland will not tolerate a Hard Border .

Any efforts to put a hard border in Ireland will hasten a United Ireland .
The demographic changes are real but they will take a decade at least to play out. Brexit is more urgent than that. It's true that people will be incensed by the re-appearance of customs posts and security checks along the border. My hope is that the anger is channelled into positive civil disobedience and that the dissident groups don't use the public's anger to carry out a campaign of bombing and shooting.
 

Congalltee

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Will the politicians who cause a hard border, attend the funeral of the first border guard who is murdered?
 

ruserious

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Will the politicians who cause a hard border, attend the funeral of the first border guard who is murdered?
They will offer thoughts and prayers and repeat that such disgusting attacks will not twart the democratic institutions of the State.
 

blinding

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Will the politicians who cause a hard border, attend the funeral of the first border guard who is murdered?
If their security guaranteed that they were under no threat whatsoever then they might make an appearance .
 

Toland

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To be honest, I think the policy of promoting a customs border on the Irish Sea is a pretty good one. It makes the point far more clearly than a more strident pro-unification stance, because it can't be dismissed easily as just more of the same old nationalist tripe.

It is also seen as an aggressive position -- and appropriately so -- by our European partners, underlining the sheer irresponsibility of the British position.
 
Last edited:

Toland

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The demographic changes are real but they will take a decade at least to play out. Brexit is more urgent than that. It's true that people will be incensed by the re-appearance of customs posts and security checks along the border. My hope is that the anger is channelled into positive civil disobedience and that the dissident groups don't use the public's anger to carry out a campaign of bombing and shooting.
Thankfully, demographics are not the only factor. Personally, I think that if Brexit ends up being the disaster for Britain I suspect it very well might (where on earth is there an up-side?), then there may be some changes of mind on a substantial scale in the centre between unionism and nationalism about how best to ensure the welfare of the people of Northern Ireland.
 

firefly123

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Let's recap:

May has stated that the UK will not be remaining in the customs or single market.
The Irish government, backed by the EU has raised the possibility of NI maintaining the terms of the customs/single market.
Foster has said NI will depart the Union on the same terms as the rest of the U.K.

The Tories cannot usurp the DUP because foolishly, they now rely on the DUP for votes in Westminster.

18 months since Brexit and not a dickiebird on what the Irish border will look like. Two weeks left until the December deadline and Leo and Simon (quite rightly) threatening a veto on trade discussions unless Whitehall surprise us all with a credible border plan in two weeks.

All of the above makes it increasingly likely that there will be a hard border on the island because the DUP who have the Tories over a barrel, will not accept any kind of regulatory divergence from the rest of the U.K effectively putting the border in the Irish Sea.

So should the Irish State begin preparations for this eventuality?
Will violence return to the island?
Has the time come for FF FG Lab and SF to promote a United Ireland as State policy?

Answers on a postcard.
I thought this was going to be another cork thread rus:)
 

NMunsterman

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May 18, 2007
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The British are holding onto Gibraltar with just 28,000 people, the Falklands with something like 5000 people, Hong Kong they held onto as long as possible but there's no messing with the Chinese, Diego Garcia they simply ejected the population and still hold it on lease to the Americans, they hold onto various islands and bits of land in the Caribbean and south America as well as in the Pacific.

In N Ireland they have 900,000 people. On the basis of everything we have seen both historically and currently what are the chances of the British willingly giving up one of the most strategic areas on their left flank at a time of European and global tectonic shift when they still have 900,000 people onside? I'd say contingency planning would be the most sensible position for the Irish to take. I suspect the degenerate southern establishment are already making deals carving up the island between the British and the Europeans with a European military intervention - 'peacekeeping' - already being worked on.

We were recently told that there is a secret agreement between the British and the Irish establishment for RAF planes to travel freely through Irish airspace and target and shoot whatever they decide independently of Irish executive control.
How can a country be called a democracy when its decision-makers create secret diplomatic agreements? In what sense is the country a democracy when secret agreements are decided over the heads of the people as if they are so many peasants not to be involved in such things?
Goes on all time - everywhere - but we just don't know the half or quarter of it - which is why it's kept secret.
Non-aligned Sweden carried out reconnaissance flights over Soviet airspace during the Cold War as part of a secret deal with NATO.
 


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