A New Econcomic Strategy For the Post Brexit Trump Post IDA Ireland

yosef shompeter

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With Trump win comes expectations for interest rates to rise

Ah sure 'tis grand. Everything'll work out just hunky-dorey.

Well I hopes so. But just in case we run into some major turbulence I thought that I should engage the finest minds in the Irish media both on the home front and abroad -- to be found here on Pie.ie of course.

Prologue. Since the ca. 1950 we have had a strategy of inviting in "winners" among the Captains of Industry to locate here and provide gainful employment for our workforce. This strategy has worked well. It has been fine-tuned over the years. e.g. Tax-free income on exports abolished to stay EU-conform. The 12.5% corporation tax introduced by CJ ( I believe). Now with the IFC we attract in Service industries and Finance houses. But now to put it mildly it would appear that we will be dealing with head-winds or even worse, there will be severe turbulence ahead.
1)Trump wants to bring the jobs back to America and will likely reduce the rate of corporation tax in the U.S to ca. 15%. If that doesn't work it would be a small step to reduce it to 12.5%.
2) The Europeans have our tax regulations --or absence of regulations :shock: under their microscope and in true Euro fashion they want to harmonize --- eh centralize everthing under some bureaucracy stationed in Brussels Berlin or Frankurt or somewhere over there. Well as you know capital tends to centralize itself... be close to the markets... how can we lure the magnates to locate here (other than by cheap wages)?
3) The Brits will likely be buying their food-products on the cheap from New Zealand, Argentina etc now that they are exiting the EU and the EU customs union.
4) Oh yes, that last gnawing worry, Interest rates. It would seem that the US federal reserve is finally fixing the ties to raise interest rates. This will likely have an effect on the Euro interest rates too, so tough times ahead for those on trackers and likely for anyone on a mortgage.

Punchline:
I put it to the house .... or the floor whatever, even to the furniture or wallpaper: How are we going to put bread on the table from the 217's on.
Should we attempt to start our own indigenous industries like the Asian strategy: Sony, Huaewii, Toyota, Toshiba (But Euro membership would prevent us sinking the currency value so as to make products cheap).
Should we go all out for services... try to replicate the London Financial Services Industry.
Should we take it all passively. Rely on fishing, agriculture and tourism and whatever firms we manage persuade to locate here. Twill all be grand, like.
To add some sauce to the mixture I point out that we will be more and more net contributors to the EU over the coming years and of course the interest rate on our debt will be felt more keenly and our population is aging too.
 


gleeful

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Trump wont end US corp's will and need to sell to Europe - and that is half the reason those companies are in Ireland.

I don't think we need to worry on the economic front. Trump is more of a security threat - he will spread war and death. We need to expel the US military from Europe and NATO and as a continent defend ourselves.
 

Hans Von Horn

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With Trump win comes expectations for interest rates to rise

Ah sure 'tis grand. Everything'll work out just hunky-dorey.

Well I hopes so. But just in case we run into some major turbulence I thought that I should engage the finest minds in the Irish media both on the home front and abroad -- to be found here on Pie.ie of course.

Prologue. Since the ca. 1950 we have had a strategy of inviting in "winners" among the Captains of Industry to locate here and provide gainful employment for our workforce. This strategy has worked well. It has been fine-tuned over the years. e.g. Tax-free income on exports abolished to stay EU-conform. The 12.5% corporation tax introduced by CJ ( I believe). Now with the IFC we attract in Service industries and Finance houses. But now to put it mildly it would appear that we will be dealing with head-winds or even worse, there will be severe turbulence ahead.
1)Trump wants to bring the jobs back to America and will likely reduce the rate of corporation tax in the U.S to ca. 15%. If that doesn't work it would be a small step to reduce it to 12.5%.
2) The Europeans have our tax regulations --or absence of regulations :shock: under their microscope and in true Euro fashion they want to harmonize --- eh centralize everthing under some bureaucracy stationed in Brussels Berlin or Frankurt or somewhere over there. Well as you know capital tends to centralize itself... be close to the markets... how can we lure the magnates to locate here (other than by cheap wages)?
3) The Brits will likely be buying their food-products on the cheap from New Zealand, Argentina etc now that they are exiting the EU and the EU customs union.
4) Oh yes, that last gnawing worry, Interest rates. It would seem that the US federal reserve is finally fixing the ties to raise interest rates. This will likely have an effect on the Euro interest rates too, so tough times ahead for those on trackers and likely for anyone on a mortgage.

Punchline:
I put it to the house .... or the floor whatever, even to the furniture or wallpaper: How are we going to put bread on the table from the 217's on.
Should we attempt to start our own indigenous industries like the Asian strategy: Sony, Huaewii, Toyota, Toshiba (But Euro membership would prevent us sinking the currency value so as to make products cheap).
Should we go all out for services... try to replicate the London Financial Services Industry.
Should we take it all passively. Rely on fishing, agriculture and tourism and whatever firms we manage persuade to locate here. Twill all be grand, like.
To add some sauce to the mixture I point out that we will be more and more net contributors to the EU over the coming years and of course the interest rate on our debt will be felt more keenly and our population is aging too.
Any initiative towards energy intensive industry would need a low cost energy policy.
 

ergo2

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Trump wont end US corp's will and need to sell to Europe - and that is half the reason those companies are in Ireland.

I don't think we need to worry on the economic front. Trump is more of a security threat - he will spread war and death. We need to expel the US military from Europe and NATO and as a continent defend ourselves.
If we do that we will end up vassals of Russia and/or China
 

gleeful

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If we do that we will end up vassals of Russia and/or China
Doing a deal with Russia is not a bad idea. The EU has a vastly larger economy and population - and militarily more than a balance for them. Remember - Putin acts as he does from a position of weakness, not strength.
 

yosef shompeter

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Trump wont end US corp's will and need to sell to Europe - and that is half the reason those companies are in Ireland.

I don't think we need to worry on the economic front. Trump is more of a security threat - he will spread war and death. We need to expel the US military from Europe and NATO and as a continent defend ourselves.
You're right on that one. He needs Europe. But don't forget that his constituency is the army of low-paid/unemployed whites of the rust-belt. I believe him 100% on one thing: He wants money and that means he wants Nato to contribute more. He wants the Multinationals to set up plants in the States to provide jobs in the heartland.
There are two big bad boys in the class now: Putin and Trump. Not goood for poor Europe stuck in the middle with them throwing things across the room... unless it's confined to insults.
 
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gleeful

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You're right on that one. He needs Europe. But don't forget that his constituency is the army of low-paid/unemployed whites of the rust-belt. I believe him 100% on one thing: He wants money and that means he wants Nato to contribute more. He wants the Multinationals to set up plants in the States to provide jobs in the heartland.
There are two big bad boys in the class now: Putin and Trump. Not goood for poor Europe stuck in the middle with them throwing things... unless it's confined to insults.
The EU countries spend 4 times more on their military than Russia does. The EU has 4 times the population and 8 times the GDP. We do not have to pay more. We should tell the US to fup off.
 

yosef shompeter

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Any initiative towards energy intensive industry would need a low cost energy policy.
One thing about the energy industry: It's volatile.
Oil Price: Latest Price & Chart for Crude Oil - NASDAQ.com
Back in 2009 the price of oil was over $140 a barrel but declined to $100 and now is slightly above $40!!!!
While alternative energy is a good thing for Ireland, them Saudi Sheiks -- for whatever reason could decide to sink of raise the price of oil and leave Irish home producers or consumers threadbare and pregnant. But some sort of home produced energy sector would be good for an emergency. They say that energy prices will come down now what with low cost battery storage, solar and wind power. -- one of the few bright spots on the horizon
 

rainmaker

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Trump is more of a security threat - he will spread war and death. We need to expel the US military from Europe and NATO and as a continent defend ourselves.
NATO has kept the peace in Europe for over 70 years and is going nowhere. What do you propose replaces it, and what will it's replacement cost?

How much will Ireland increase its defence spending by - I mean you have thought that idea through haven't you?
 

yosef shompeter

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Perhaps some brainstorming might expand the field of view on the modern world.
Growth Industries that show some promise are robotics and 3-D printing. There is no question but that these will have a big effect on manufacturing. The early stages will be, for example: if you need a button for your jacket. Set up the prog and hit the run key and out comes your button. You need a new spoon. Hit the return key and out comes your spoon.
Sadly that means home-industries are back in fashion. lots of jobs lost there.
unless for the 3-d printing manufacturers.

Back to the drawing board
 

yosef shompeter

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Update on the energy Industry
As you all have already heard, beware of predictions especially those about the future...
But if you were to have asked me last week about the fossil-fuel industry, I would have churned out the conventional answer that the World Convention on Global Warming/ Greenhouse-Gas reduction dictates that all that oil and coal in the ground must stay put and those Oil companies and hedge-funds are going to take a painful write-off on the accumulated reserves.

Donald has changed all that. His environmental protection appointee believes all that pollution is healthy and good for the lungs. He also supports big-coal.
And he's talking about coal... much worse than oil.
 

yosef shompeter

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NATO has kept the peace in Europe for over 70 years and is going nowhere. What do you propose replaces it, and what will it's replacement cost?

How much will Ireland increase its defence spending by - I mean you have thought that idea through haven't you?
The contours are beginning to become clearer on this. It would seem that the big loser will be the Ukraine. It should be clear to everyone now that the honeymoon after 1990 where each country decides its own future has ended and it's now back to Realpolitik. It would appear that Russia had been playing a long game on Ukraine -- and who knows? maybe they want to reconstruct the old Soviet Union. Putin has made no secret of his view that he considers the collapse of the Soviet Union to be the biggest disaster of the 20th century.
But a bit of introspection is required here: The Ukraine is dirt-poor and corruption is widespread. I'm sure your average EU-citizen has every sympathy for the Ukraine but when it comes down to it, does he want to support it? He'd prefer if the money went to pay off his mortgage or better, if he could have is four weeks holiday in the summer. Besides, how would the EU take Ukraine under its wing and keep Turkey out ( Turkey is also pretty much like the Ukraine but fundie-islamic as well). When it comes down to it, better to keep the two of them at arm's length... and not to be upsetting the Rosskies! Damn commie serfs.
Suffice to say that bringing the Ukraine up to the standard of a modern European state would take much time, effort and money.
The geo-political side of things have to be ironed out too. And it seems Donald has some input on that one... something about a deal.
 

cyberianpan

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Oh no! Enda didn't put her in charge of the IDA did he? :-(
The pink social thing is Minister for Jobs ... despite no known professional competence in the area ... misgivings before she was appointed - and her colleagues in Cabinet and FG criticizing her poor performance since

There is complete omerta as to how we ended up with a Pig in Cabinet



cyp
 

yosef shompeter

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Well then what about as a centerfold for one of the IDA brochures?
She could sit there looking sexy and let the civil servants do the work.
That's what happens mostly in nearly all govt departments anyway.
 

cyberianpan

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Well then what about as a centerfold for one of the IDA brochures?
She could sit there looking sexy and let the civil servants do the work.
That's what happens mostly in nearly all govt departments anyway.
The Oinker has a habit of ... well ...oinking

It ought to be confined to nodding or head shaking

cyp
 

yosef shompeter

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The Latin poet Horace, in one of his odes declared himself to be a happy pig in the herd of Bacchus (the Roman God of wine) -- an indication of his penchant for enjoying life's simple pleasures in the pastoral bliss on his farm in northern Italy.
Well how come the lady in question was put in charge of managing Ireland's industrial policy of all things. I'm sure she does her best... might not get a good press rating, but Enda must be a bit blind to put her in a job like that.
Foreign affairs. That would be her forté.
 

TheWexfordInn

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The EU countries spend 4 times more on their military than Russia does. The EU has 4 times the population and 8 times the GDP. We do not have to pay more. We should tell the US to fup off.
Get out of it. The EU military would be no match whatsoever for the Russian military. How much Russia spends is neither here not there as their costbase is a fraction of the EUs.

If the EU wants to match the Russian military without the US its going to have to jack up its military spending. A lot.
 

Lúidín

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Minister for Jobs in a country which is no longer independent and where economic policies are made by outside forces is as effective as Longford County Council having a Minister for the Marine.

There is nothing she can do and she does that very well.
 


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