A New Econcomic Strategy For the Post Brexit Trump Post IDA Ireland

yosef shompeter

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As for strategy for the Post Brexit Trumpian world it seems we have our work cut out to try to keep the multinationals happy. Expect the Eurocrats to muzzle in on our tax affairs with the multinationals. Gestaegers Apple demand was just a first shot across the bow.

In my view it's early days yet and the populist wave has not fully run its course. Marie LePen might even get a majority in the first round of voting in France's general election but she'll probably be bet soundly by some combo of the Socialists and Gaulists alliance in the second run-off election. Likewise Geert Wilders in Holland. More interesting and immediate is Italy and it's reform referendum which it seems Renzi is likely to lose. I believe that the bad loans problem that their banks have is not getting any better. Whatever else it would seem that the political eruptions are still in motion. Not good for business.
 


gleeful

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Get out of it. The EU military would be no match whatsoever for the Russian military. How much Russia spends is neither here not there as their costbase is a fraction of the EUs.

If the EU wants to match the Russian military without the US its going to have to jack up its military spending. A lot.
Are you sure? Russia is not the Soviet Union. Its industrial capacity is quite diminished. It produces few modern electronics, for example and needs to import many basic goods.
 

yosef shompeter

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Get out of it. The EU military would be no match whatsoever for the Russian military. How much Russia spends is neither here not there as their costbase is a fraction of the EUs.

If the EU wants to match the Russian military without the US its going to have to jack up its military spending. A lot.
In my view the Americans would view the next battle with Russia as the European strke force taking up the first three lines of battle..
or the first five or six.
The US would take up the reserve.
Paddy get yar gun.
 

im axeled

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The Latin poet Horace, in one of his odes declared himself to be a happy pig in the herd of Bacchus (the Roman God of wine) -- an indication of his penchant for enjoying life's simple pleasures in the pastoral bliss on his farm in northern Italy.
Well how come the lady in question was put in charge of managing Ireland's industrial policy of all things. I'm sure she does her best... might not get a good press rating, but Enda must be a bit blind to put her in a job like that.
Foreign affairs. That would be her forté.
oink would be more suited to agriculture would she not
 

im axeled

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Minister for Jobs in a country which is no longer independent and where economic policies are made by outside forces is as effective as Longford County Council having a Minister for the Marine.

There is nothing she can do and she does that very well.
should the last line go there is nothing she can do and she does that badly
 

TheWexfordInn

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Are you sure? Russia is not the Soviet Union. Its industrial capacity is quite diminished. It produces few modern electronics, for example and needs to import many basic goods.
Yes most of Russian industry is decrepit but its Military industry is an exception. Russia has a top class military industry, which is why it is able to export almost as much military equipment as the US does.

NATO would struggle to repel a Russian attack at the moment. Without the US the only thing that could stop a Russian invasion would be the threat from UK and French nukes.

There are further revelations coming out that NATO has become a hollowed-out military alliance that would be hard-pressed to defend itself in any future war. The first link includes reports by British military leaders that NATO is in a dangerously weakened position vis-à-vis the Russian military. It includes links on new Russian weapons, but it also notes that the Russians have developed a means of electronically hijacking NATO’s drones. This is quite serious and implies an even greater danger.
..
The gross neglect by European NATO nations of their military forces has been a serious problem for many years. The third link makes this point clear. It includes warnings by NATO military leader that NATO needs to beef-up its military spending to have credible military forces. Notice the date on that link. It is 2005. This confirms that the NATO nations have lived in a Fool’s Paradise for many years- deluding themselves into thinking there will never be the need to fight a major, all-out war.
 

gleeful

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The long term route to deal with Russia is the same trick used to end the German threat - integration, not isolation. Russia needs to become ever more economically and socially integrated with the EU so that war becomes unprofitable.

Isolation doesnt work long term.
 

realist

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As for strategy for the Post Brexit Trumpian world it seems we have our work cut out to try to keep the multinationals happy. Expect the Eurocrats to muzzle in on our tax affairs with the multinationals. Gestaegers Apple demand was just a first shot across the bow.

In my view it's early days yet and the populist wave has not fully run its course. Marie LePen might even get a majority in the first round of voting in France's general election but she'll probably be bet soundly by some combo of the Socialists and Gaulists alliance in the second run-off election. Likewise Geert Wilders in Holland. More interesting and immediate is Italy and it's reform referendum which it seems Renzi is likely to lose. I believe that the bad loans problem that their banks have is not getting any better. Whatever else it would seem that the political eruptions are still in motion. Not good for business.
The responses by Enterprise Ireland, the Department of Finance and the Central Bank are reported in an article in the Irish Examiner today:

Enterprise Ireland has said it will need to develop “contingency plans” to protect indigenous Irish businesses if US president-elect Donald Trump moves to repatriate American multinational firms.....

The (Finance) department said it would analyse any proposals for US tax reform, but it was too early to make predictions, since Mr Trump’s administration will not be in place until January.

Central Bank governor Philip Lane yesterday said it was “way too early” to assess the impact of Mr Trump’s presidency on the economy.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/plan-to-protect-jobs-in-us-firm-exodus-430222.html

While it seems our experts deem that it is way too early for Ireland to even assess the impact of the election results on the Irish economy, other governments are moving rapidly.

The Canadian PM has said he is willing to renegotiate NAFTA and the UK have signalled that they are interested in joining as an associate member.

Both the USD and Sterling have increased against the EURO and the DOW hit a record high on Thursday.

The EU are intent on implementing the CCCTB with Moscovici - the EU economic commissioner - stating that tax sovereignty in relation to business taxation will ultimately be ceded to Brussels.

The UK and USA have both said they will reduce corporation tax rates so, no matter what the experts say about the advantages of our English speaking, highly educated workforce, we will see an outflow of US firms and all the faster if Trump introduces an amnesty to encourage their return to the US.

Where does that leave Ireland? The best we can hope for is that business leaders flying between the US and UK will stop off in Ireland for a holiday!
 

blokesbloke

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Trump wont end US corp's will and need to sell to Europe - and that is half the reason those companies are in Ireland.

I don't think we need to worry on the economic front. Trump is more of a security threat - he will spread war and death. We need to expel the US military from Europe and NATO and as a continent defend ourselves.
With what?
 

blokesbloke

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Doing a deal with Russia is not a bad idea. The EU has a vastly larger economy and population - and militarily more than a balance for them. Remember - Putin acts as he does from a position of weakness, not strength.
Really?
 

gleeful

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By every measure Russia is outgunned, outmanned, outplanned and outclassed by the combined military of the EU. There is no need for US protection, and hasn't been for 25 years.

Total EU military spending is $226 billion, vs Russia $65 billion - The EU spends 3.5 times more.
The EU has a standing army of 1.8 million men and women - 2.5 times more than Russia. The EU has 7500 tanks, vs Russia's 5000 (mainly ancient Soviet era). Russia has only 500 tanks built in the 21st century. The EU has twice as many Naval ships as Russia, and they are newer and more advanced. Only in aircraft does Russia match the combined EU military.

Russia is not a military threat. I'm not saying the EU could defeat them if they were the aggressor - but equally, Russia need not be feared as an aggressor. When Russia acts, it is mainly out of a fear of being encircled - for example they fear losing their Naval bases in Syria and Crimea.
 

rainmaker

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By every measure Russia is outgunned, outmanned, outplanned and outclassed by the combined military of the EU. There is no need for US protection, and hasn't been for 25 years.

Total EU military spending is $226 billion, vs Russia $65 billion - The EU spends 3.5 times more.
The EU has a standing army of 1.8 million men and women - 2.5 times more than Russia. The EU has 7500 tanks, vs Russia's 5000 (mainly ancient Soviet era). Russia has only 500 tanks built in the 21st century. The EU has twice as many Naval ships as Russia, and they are newer and more advanced. Only in aircraft does Russia match the combined EU military.

Russia is not a military threat. I'm not saying the EU could defeat them if they were the aggressor - but equally, Russia need not be feared as an aggressor. When Russia acts, it is mainly out of a fear of being encircled - for example they fear losing their Naval bases in Syria and Crimea.
That is one of the most overly simplistic and ill informed analysis of European geo politics I have ever come across. And you have, yet again avoided all the difficult questions to simply repeat your own opinion.

By the way, the EU has no standing army, no unified defence policy, and the only proven, capable military integration has been that of NATO members.
 

blokesbloke

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By every measure Russia is outgunned, outmanned, outplanned and outclassed by the combined military of the EU. There is no need for US protection, and hasn't been for 25 years.

Total EU military spending is $226 billion, vs Russia $65 billion - The EU spends 3.5 times more.
The EU has a standing army of 1.8 million men and women - 2.5 times more than Russia. The EU has 7500 tanks, vs Russia's 5000 (mainly ancient Soviet era). Russia has only 500 tanks built in the 21st century. The EU has twice as many Naval ships as Russia, and they are newer and more advanced. Only in aircraft does Russia match the combined EU military.

Russia is not a military threat. I'm not saying the EU could defeat them if they were the aggressor - but equally, Russia need not be feared as an aggressor. When Russia acts, it is mainly out of a fear of being encircled - for example they fear losing their Naval bases in Syria and Crimea.
I assume your figures are minus the UK?

The above assumes the EU could muster all of that capacity at once in a unified way... I think it's a long way off from that.

The EU doesn't have any standing army, it has a collection of 28 (soon to be 27) standing armies. It doesn't control any of them.
 

gleeful

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That is one of the most overly simplistic and ill informed analysis of European geo politics I have ever come across. And you have, yet again avoided all the difficult questions to simply repeat your own opinion.

By the way, the EU has no standing army, no unified defence policy, and the only proven, capable military integration has been that of NATO members.
Indeed. Nato, which is headquartered in Brussels and has only two non European members out of 28. Sure - Europe has no unified defense policy.

When Trump's America leaves we surely are doomed by the vastly inferior Russian threat.
 

rainmaker

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Indeed. Nato, which is headquartered in Brussels and has only two non European members out of 28. Sure - Europe has no unified defense policy.
That is NATO, that you want disbanded, not the EU - it is not under the control of nor at the disposal of the EU. Being headquartered in Brussels is irrelevant.

The EU does not have a unified joint defence policy, it does not have a unified foreign policy and it most certainly does not have a standing army.
 

gleeful

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That is NATO, that you want disbanded, not the EU - it is not under the control of nor at the disposal of the EU.

The EU does not have a unified joint defence policy, it does not have a unified foreign policy and it most certainly does not have a standing army.
If there were a crisis with Russia and the US opted out - it wouldn't matter whether it was the EU or Nato giving the orders. It would be European troops, European equipment and a European victory against a Russian military 4 times smaller.
 

rainmaker

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If there were a crisis with Russia and the US opted out - it wouldn't matter whether it was the EU or Nato giving the orders. It would be European troops, European equipment and a European victory against a Russian military 4 times smaller.
Goodness me, your analysis is getting even simpler. The size of the forces is not the deciding factor for a start. The EU cannot give orders to NATO - that command structure simply does not exist.

The EU has no standing army, and no command of NATO which is in effect controlled by America - because America is the biggest financial contributor to NATO by a country mile.

European defence budgets would have to increase dramatically to run NATO without the U.S. for a start.

care to name a single EU government that wants to 'kick America out of NATO'?
 

gleeful

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Goodness me, your analysis is getting even simpler. The size of the forces is not the deciding factor for a start. The EU cannot give orders to NATO - that command structure simply does not exist.

The EU has no standing army, and no command of NATO which is in effect controlled by America - because America is the biggest financial contributor to NATO by a country mile.

European defence budgets would have to increase dramatically to run NATO without the U.S. for a start.

care to name a single EU government that wants to 'kick America out of NATO'?
Trump seems to.
 

gleeful

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Goodness me, your analysis is getting even simpler. The size of the forces is not the deciding factor for a start. The EU cannot give orders to NATO - that command structure simply does not exist.

The EU has no standing army, and no command of NATO which is in effect controlled by America - because America is the biggest financial contributor to NATO by a country mile.

European defence budgets would have to increase dramatically to run NATO without the U.S. for a start.

care to name a single EU government that wants to 'kick America out of NATO'?
Trump seems to.
 

rainmaker

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Trump seems to.
Trump is already begining to wake up to the fact that U.S. Presidents cannot simply do as they please. That and the fact that as POTUS he will suddenly have access to the kind of secret info most of the world will never see.

I would wager everything I have that's just one of the off the cuff campaign pieces that is quietly never heard of again.

That aside, I asked which EU government has called for the US to be kicked out NATO?
 


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