A view from the Torygraph

Ulysses

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In summary:

Senior creditors have to take some of the hit, otherwise there's a "jaw-dropping moral hazard".

The battle is between Germany's insistence on accountability and everyone else's state of denial - and Ireland is stuck in the middle.

Ireland's banking losses are transparent, while the rest of the Western world tries to hide theirs.

Endgame will be a Brady Bonds solution and the break-up of the euro.

Daily Telegraph, 27 November 2010: Haircuts for all as vexed Germany takes a firm grip on the clippers
 


mr_anderson

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Senior creditors have to take some of the hit, otherwise there's a "jaw-dropping moral hazard".

If necessary, senior creditors have to take as much of the hit as they possible can - up to and including getting wiped out.
Thats capitalism !
 

Padraigin

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According to the article:

... Ireland does not have an inherent fiscal problem. The country's total government debt is equivalent to 62pc of GDP – below the EU average...

A debt of 62pc of GDP is not good, but apparently better than the norm in Europe. In other words, Ireland's economy remains fundamentally strong and the non-bank debt is manageable.

The current crisis has arisen for one reason and one reason only - the idiotic guarantee given by the Irish government to foreign bond holders, thereby making it "safe" to throw money down the rat holes of failing banks once these loans were secured by the future earnings of generations of Irish taxpayers.

How and why that happened remains to be investigated.

However, for now, the main thing is to repudiate the bank debt.... by quick and speedy default, if necessary, before more damage is done to the Irish economy.
 

Ulysses

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If necessary, senior creditors have to take as much of the hit as they possible can - up to and including getting wiped out.
Thats capitalism !
It would appear that the German government is coming around to the view that, as you say, "that's capitalism". Having said that, it is unlikely that the German government will expect senior creditors to be wiped out.

If we have to put up with this "bailout" business, then the more the creditors suffer the less it will cost us. Ireland simply does not have any leverage over these players, so we really could do with the Germans and the ECB adopting this view - and doing so both trenchantly and quickly.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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According to the article:

... Ireland does not have an inherent fiscal problem. The country's total government debt is equivalent to 62pc of GDP – below the EU average...

A debt of 62pc of GDP is not good, but apparently better than the norm in Europe. In other words, Ireland's economy remains fundamentally strong and the non-bank debt is manageable.

The current crisis has arisen for one reason and one reason only - the idiotic guarantee given by the Irish government to foreign bond holders, thereby making it "safe" to throw money down the rat holes of failing banks once these loans were secured by the future earnings of generations of Irish taxpayers.

How and why that happened remains to be investigated.

However, for now, the main thing is to repudiate the bank debt.... by quick and speedy default, if necessary, before more damage is done to the Irish economy.
+1
 

Old Mr Grouser

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In summary: ... Ireland's banking losses are transparent, while the rest of the Western world tries to hide theirs. ...
The only thing transparent, Uly, is that the country is broke.

What really went on at Anglo? Whatever it was, the Government's top priority since 2008 has been to keep that bank's creditors from ever finding out.
 

Ulysses

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The only thing transparent, Uly, is that the country is broke.
I think Halligan's point, however, is that we are only broke if we take on a liability for someone else's debt problem. If we don't, we've got a fiscal problem, but not one that is insurmountable.
 

Insole

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Everyone in the entire world can see that the nation is being shafted by a handful of FF traitors. The banks and especially the Anglo one are not our problem. They have shamelessly lied to us. Bastards, I hope they burn in hell.
 

Padraigin

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Ireland simply does not have any leverage over these players, so we really could do with the Germans and the ECB adopting this view - and doing so both trenchantly and quickly.

Of course it does. The problem is that the EU-pandering Irish government does not know how to play hardball with the EU, the IMF, the European banks, or any of the other EU apparachniks.

Making the position of Ireland perfectly clear is the first step to playing hard ball, which should have been stated clearly, concisely, and bluntly:

Ireland will do one of two things - (1) pay the government debt but NOT the bank debt and stay in the eurozone or (2) default on the entirety of the govenrment and bank debt, leave the eurozone, go back to its own currency, and set its own fiscal policy. Pick.

Then let the EU/IMF absorb this message and decide which was the least worst option for Europe.

More likely than not, they would have advised the bank bond holders that they were investors taking risks after all when they purchased those bonds, and they had assumed the risk that they might lose their money - which just happened.
 

eoghanacht

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It's too late.

The IMF have left and the treasonous deal is done.
 

Ulysses

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Of course it does. The problem is that the EU-pandering Irish government does not know how to play hardball with the EU, the IMF, the European banks, or any of the other EU apparachniks.
I wasn't referring to Ireland's leverage over the EU and IMF institutions. I was referring to the creditors. To their way of thinking, Ireland is easily dismissed, but the Germans and the ECB are not.

Why do you think a "quick and speedy default" is a good idea, if there is a better one available? Of course a better idea might not be available, but the views expressed by the German Chancellor suggest that the possibility exists.
 

eoghanacht

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I wasn't referring to Ireland's leverage over the EU and IMF institutions. I was referring to the creditors. To their way of thinking, Ireland is easily dismissed, but the Germans and the ECB are not.

Why do you think a "quick and speedy default" is a good idea, if there is a better one available? Of course a better idea might not be available, but the views expressed by the German Chancellor suggest that the possibility exists.
Yeah, grand.

BUT.........

The deal is done the IMF have left!
 

Old Mr Grouser

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... Ireland will do one of two things - (1) pay the government debt but NOT the bank debt and stay in the eurozone or (2) default on the entirety of the govenrment and bank debt, leave the eurozone, go back to its own currency, and set its own fiscal policy. Pick.

Then let the EU/IMF absorb this message and decide which was the least worst option for Europe. ...
It may be more "which is the least worst option for Germany".

With the end of the Cold War and the re-emergence of Central Europe does Germany still want a long-term commitment to countries such as Ireland?
 

Padraigin

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It's too late.

The IMF have left and the treasonous deal is done.

The people who reportedly negotiated are not the principals. They may have the makings of a (treasonous) deal, but they have not yet presented it to their principals, the principals have not accepted it yet, and it is not yet binding. In other words, no one has approved it yet.

Worst case scenario is that this is some kind of memorandum of understanding with a lot of conditions that have be met before anything happens. These kind of things are generally easy to derail at this stage.

FF's negotiators will likely present the deal to the Irish government on Monday, recommend it, and then wait to see what happens next.

With luck, all hell will break loose.
 

gatsbygirl20

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According to the article:

... Ireland does not have an inherent fiscal problem. The country's total government debt is equivalent to 62pc of GDP – below the EU average...

A debt of 62pc of GDP is not good, but apparently better than the norm in Europe. In other words, Ireland's economy remains fundamentally strong and the non-bank debt is manageable.

The current crisis has arisen for one reason and one reason only - the idiotic guarantee given by the Irish government to foreign bond holders, thereby making it "safe" to throw money down the rat holes of failing banks once these loans were secured by the future earnings of generations of Irish taxpayers.

How and why that happened remains to be investigated.

However, for now, the main thing is to repudiate the bank debt.... by quick and speedy default, if necessary, before more damage is done to the Irish economy.
Surely they are misinformed on this. Has nobody explained to them that the real problem is benchmarking, and the fact that we have greedy teachers and public sector leaders with beards?
 

Iarmuid

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Yeah, grand.

BUT.........

The deal is done the IMF have left!
so what if, given the will, the people can and should reverse any deal deemed to be odious, this is what is called sovereignity, which can never be lost btw, only abdicated.
 

Ulysses

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Yeah, grand.

BUT.........

The deal is done the IMF have left!

I refer you to what I said earlier.

....so we really could do with the Germans and the ECB adopting this view - and doing so both trenchantly and quickly.

I don't know if the government have had the good sense to try to tap into Germany's growing sense that the creditors will have to take some of the hit. But if they haven't, then why not? And if they have, and they've gotten nowhere, then what game is Germany playing? And how will they play the game when it's Portugal's turn in the Spring - or Spain's after that?
 

Insole

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Surely they are misinformed on this. Has nobody explained to them that the real problem is benchmarking, and the fact that we have greedy teachers and public sector leaders with beards?
Nope, the Torygraph is correct.
Benchmarking is small beer in all this, a problem nonetheless but insignificant compared to what the Traitors are signing off on.
 

eoghanacht

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.

With luck, all hell will break loose.

so what if, given the will, the people can and should reverse any deal deemed to be odious, this is what is called sovereignity, which can never be lost btw, only abdicated.
Well do YOU have the bottle?

I know i do.
 


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