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ABFF - Negative voting against FF constituency by constituency. Please complete.

Congalltee

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Most punters will vote for the resons they always have (likability, local work, geography), but there should be enough astute voters who fill the ballot to ensure that FF gets as few transfers as possible: how is this best done.

The only viable alternative coalition is Fine Gael and Labour.
FG on their own (if even possible) would be a scary prospect for anyone.
FG and SF simply would not work.
FG and Greens is a non-runner since the Greens won't have any.
FF and Labour is to be avoided at all costs.

So constituency by Constituency - what is the best tactic to apply?

eg Mayo - would you vote by preference with only one party:
FG weakest to strongest? Labour candidate, Mulherin, O'Mahony, Kenny, Ring, any independent, any SF.

eg Dublin North Central
FG No 2 (OMuiri/Breen), Bruton (who is likely to be elected but just in case), O'Riordan (lab), F McGrath, any independent, SF, Green.

eg Dublin Central
Pascal Donohue (Fg), Labour No. 2, Joe Costello, Maureen O'Sullivan, Green , SF, independents.

But there are some with different considerations, such as where reduction in number of seats:

eg Dun Laoighaire
Gilmore (to ensure he gets in a very tight constituency), Barret, FG no. 2, Labour no. 2, Cuffe, independents, Boyd Barret.
 


Mitsui2

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This is an excellent idea for a thread. I'd be grateful for any informed comment on the situation in county Wexford.
 

Niceguyeddie

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eg Dun Laoighaire
Gilmore (to ensure he gets in a very tight constituency), Barret, FG no. 2, Labour no. 2, Cuffe, independents, Boyd Barret.
Great idea for a thread

Dun Laoghaire
I'd submit that you should swap Gilmore with Barrett - G got in before B last time. Also, if you want to avoid FF-Lab, maybe giving the second FG candidate your third choice rather than Labour's would be an idea.

Also, I'd suggest having Green eradication as a secondary priority. Therefore Cuffe goes towards the back of the list - after SF, before FF.

Therefore it's Barrett, Gilmore, FG no. 2, Lab no. 2, Inds, SF, GP, FF

DSE
Lab's no. 2 (if applicable - based on the locals, they have a real chance in this constituency, but will need every vote), Quinn, FG's no. 2, Creighton, Inds, SF, GP, FF.
 

LowIQ

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Wicklow already has 2 Blueshirts.
We have Labour's Lady Wicklow, originally Official IRA's Liz McManus.
2 FF (I don't believe Joe Behan is really independent). That leaves Roche.
It's all quite depressing really.
 

Congalltee

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Mods: can I continuously edit OP to include constituencies in alphabetical order?

This will apply where there is concensus or where there are two sensible arguments eg for DL a Labour person would put Gilmore first, somone else might see 2 FG'ers as a greater priority and hope Gilmore is carried in by transfers.
 

flavirostris

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Approach the ballot paper from the perspective of who's least likely to put FF back in power. Order of least liklihood would be FG, Lab, SF, Ind, Green. When I filled up the ballot paper for the Dub Central by-election, I made sure to put the Green candidate and Maurice Ahern at the very end. So it was something like; Donohoe(FG), Bacik(Lab), Burke(SF), the various inds (CSP, Perry), Green, FF
 

Congalltee

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Approach the ballot paper from the perspective of who's least likely to put FF back in power. Order of least liklihood would be FG, Lab, SF, Ind, Green. When I filled up the ballot paper for the Dub Central by-election, I made sure to put the Green candidate and Maurice Ahern at the very end. So it was something like; Donohoe(FG), Bacik(Lab), Burke(SF), the various inds (CSP, Perry), Green, FF
But it has to be more precise than that.
There is no point in having two FG candidates, one with 0.9 of a quota and the other with 0.5. It would be far better if they had 0.7 each.
Extending this to include Labour is the purpose of this thread.

0.7 of a quota is the magic number to almost ensure election (though as Dick Spring found out,there are exceptions).

FF gets their seat bonus from the number of candidates they have elected without reaching the quota. There is an art to it (SF did it brilliant in the MLA elections in the falls).
 

LowIQ

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Approach the ballot paper from the perspective of who's least likely to put FF back in power. Order of least liklihood would be FG, Lab, SF, Ind, Green. When I filled up the ballot paper for the Dub Central by-election, I made sure to put the Green candidate and Maurice Ahern at the very end. So it was something like; Donohoe(FG), Bacik(Lab), Burke(SF), the various inds (CSP, Perry), Green, FF
That is the trick. ABFF should include anyone who would be tempted to go in to coalition with them. Hopefully the Greens will get the PD treatment next time around and Labour and SF will be terrified to go anywhere near FF.
 

QuizMaster

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Good luck with Enda Kenny.
I'd say the ABFG thread will be up within a fortnight of him being sworn in.
 

flavirostris

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Good luck with Enda Kenny.
I'd say the ABFG thread will be up within a fortnight of him being sworn in.
Perhaps but I doubt he'll be such an abject failure as FF/Greens
 

consultant

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Good luck with Enda Kenny.
I'd say the ABFG thread will be up within a fortnight of him being sworn in.
I really don't understand how any intelligent person can look across the ranks of Fianna Fail, the Greens and the likes of Lowery and Healy-Rae. Can consider the bankrupcy of this country by FF and its cohorts over the last 20 years. Can think of the cronyism, brown envelopes and sleeze that is endemic within this shower. Can consider the ineptness of Cowen, Lenihan (as Minister for Finance), Coughlan, Cullen Hanafin and Harney - and then say "Aw Hell, this is a better option than Enda Kenny!"
 

QuizMaster

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I really don't understand how any intelligent person can look across the ranks of Fianna Fail, the Greens and the likes of Lowery and Healy-Rae. Can consider the bankrupcy of this country by FF and its cohorts over the last 20 years. Can think of the cronyism, brown envelopes and sleeze that is endemic within this shower. Can consider the ineptness of Cowen, Lenihan (as Minister for Finance), Coughlan, Cullen Hanafin and Harney - and then say "Aw Hell, this is a better option than Enda Kenny!"
Perhaps you are right and even Enda Kenny is a preferable option to the incumbents.
I'm just saying that if people think he is going to make much of a difference they are sorely mistaken. If people think he will not bring in cuts that are painful and unjust they are sorely mistaken. The sheen will wear off in a few days.

I'm not defending FF or even the Greens. I'm just saying.
 

Congalltee

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Waht do you do with Dublin south?
ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail By Elections - Dublin South First Preference Votes

Candidate Party 1st Pref Share Quota Count Status Seat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

George Lee 27,768 53.36% 1.07 1 Made Quota 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alex White 10,294 19.78% 0.40 (1) Not Elected
Shay Brennan 9,250 17.78% 0.36 (1) Not Elected

On that basis, it should be FF 1, Lab 1, FG 3.
53% divided by 3 is 17.77%
A quota is 16.66%.

I suppose this would have to be a strong united campaign for FG of vote 1,2,3 in order of your choice (and then White).

But what about FF no. 2 and Eamon Ryan.
4/5 from oppositon seems impossible, but is theoretcially in reach.
 

locke

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I voted tactically in the '97 election.

It all ended up with the candidate I would have put first on the ballot sheet not getting elected.

Taught me a bit of a lesson.

Now, I just vote in order of preference, with the sole exception of the fact that I'll put a no hope independent first just to ensure that my vote can be useful if my candidate exceeds the quota on the first count.
 

dub14

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Waht do you do with Dublin south?
ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail By Elections - Dublin South First Preference Votes

Candidate Party 1st Pref Share Quota Count Status Seat

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

George Lee 27,768 53.36% 1.07 1 Made Quota 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alex White 10,294 19.78% 0.40 (1) Not Elected
Shay Brennan 9,250 17.78% 0.36 (1) Not Elected

On that basis, it should be FF 1, Lab 1, FG 3.
53% divided by 3 is 17.77%
A quota is 16.66%.

I suppose this would have to be a strong united campaign for FG of vote 1,2,3 in order of your choice (and then White).

But what about FF no. 2 and Eamon Ryan.
4/5 from oppositon seems impossible, but is theoretcially in reach.
My backyard so I have been given this plenty of thought. It looks impossible but if you think about it maybe not....

Ryan got 2/3 of a quota last time and I can't see any way he'll get that again. Even if he did where are the transfers going to come from. Last time the biggest chunks were from PDs and Lab with the rest from SF and a few from FG. It's hard to see any of these coming good for him again and FF will be too busy scrambling their own quotas together, i.e. not much prospect of transfers even if you do assume that they would give the Greens lower order prefs. SF have no hope either so that leaves 5 seats from 3FG, 1 Lab and 2 FF. Without a big name to bring in the votes (assuming Kitt retires) then you can see FF ending up with 1 (and it mightn't even be Brennan jnr)
 

Congalltee

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Carlow Kilkenny
ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Carlow Kilkenny First Preference Votes

I am way out of my depth here, given the importance of geography.
But last time 2 FF candidates got 1.02Q, while the 3rd successful one got 0.8Q.

FG got one elected with 0.76+0.6+0.4Q - a very bad return.

Green got a seat with0.48Q. amazing result whcih will be difficult to repeat.


Phelan's profile is much higher now and Labour could take a seat, so a tactial vote here could be:
1st pref Labour 1 or Phelan
3rd Labour 2,
4th Hogan (since he will get a decent vote anyway)
5th SF
6th Green.
 

rockofcashel

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I voted tactically in the '97 election.

It all ended up with the candidate I would have put first on the ballot sheet not getting elected.

Taught me a bit of a lesson.

Now, I just vote in order of preference, with the sole exception of the fact that I'll put a no hope independent first just to ensure that my vote can be useful if my candidate exceeds the quota on the first count.
That is very good use of your vote Locke, and if more people thought like that, a lot less FF candidates would get elected.

FF are masters at "vote splitting" ensuring candidates stay in the election long enough to benefit from as many transfers as possible, while FG and Labour 2nd candidates fall away because their 1st candidate hoovers up so much of the party vote.

Look at DSW for example. Even if both Rabbitte and Hayes have running partners, and each party gets around 30% of the vote each, the likliehood is that they will get between 22 and 25% of the vote, leaving potential running mates to start on 5-8%. Most people don't understand that the 2nd preferences on the majority of these votes aren't worth much in a proportional transfer and certainly not worth anything like if the main candidates were slightly short a quota (say 18%) but leaving their running mates starting at 12%
 


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