Access to credit is definitely stabilising



Cassandra Syndrome

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Digout

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The dogs on the street know exactly whats going on. This morning I visited another client who is going into liquidation, a solid small business who employ 20 people, going down over 50k.
 

hammer

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The FF Government will be thrilled. Their plan for Ireland to regain competivness at Polish wages is definitely working.

Could someone please let the DOF know that as jobs are lost and wages cut the effect is

1. Taxes fall
2. Social welfare payments increase
 

oceanclub

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Personal loans for holidays, furniture, school fees and food will available soon :)
You know, I was out for dinner with the missus a few months ago when a group of bimbos at the next table started talking about NAMA. I swear to God, one _did_ honestly say she thought it was a good idea as a friend of hers had been refused a loan to go on a shopping trip to New York.

The wife swears it looked like I was about to stab yer wan with a fork. (If I had, luckily for her it was a tapas restaurant and therefore a small fork.)

P.
 

NAMAwinelake

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The rate of decline in lending is accelerating with the adjusted figures showing credit to non-financial corporations fell by 4.3 per cent in the year ending January. The annual decline in December was 3.1 per cent, while November recorded a fall of 2.7 per cent.

Is it not about time that the Opposition demanded metrics by which the government’s actions can be judged?
 

cyberianpan

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The rate of decline in lending is accelerating with the adjusted figures showing credit to non-financial corporations fell by 4.3 per cent in the year ending January. The annual decline in December was 3.1 per cent, while November recorded a fall of 2.7 per cent.

Is it not about time that the Opposition demanded metrics by which the government’s actions can be judged?
Overall in macroeconomic terms we are not in a downwards business cycle.. we are actually engaging in a necessary contraction, resulting from two bubble bursts (public pay & property)

Contraction in amounts loaned is a sign of health... and I don't quite understand why politicians won't explain this.

cYp
 

libertarian-right

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How far can a country bend before it snaps? There is just too much pressure applied in so many areas of our economy.
 

NAMAwinelake

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Overall in macroeconomic terms we are not in a downwards business cycle..
Seriously, based on what - we have negative outlook for GNP, Employment, house prices, inflation, wages, public spending, how can we not in macroeconomic terms not be in a downwards business cycle?
 

rockofcashel

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Overall in macroeconomic terms we are not in a downwards business cycle.. we are actually engaging in a necessary contraction, resulting from two bubble bursts (public pay & property)

Contraction in amounts loaned is a sign of health... and I don't quite understand why politicians won't explain this.

cYp
They won't explain it, because they've spent the whole time since giving the bank guarentees promising former voters that what was done, was done so that we can go back to where we were i.e. loads of money, loads of credit, house prices back in the stratosphere

In fact, they are still peddling the line, that the current cuts, and the ones that will inevitably coming in the next budget or two, will be made on a short term basis, and that once "we are over the hump", we'll go back to where we were again

They cannot face telling people the truth i.e. that we're not going to see the last decade again.. ever again
 

hammer

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At lease the Europeans are happy with progress :)

They just dont care about the real people. We are just statistics.
 

cyberianpan

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Seriously, based on what - we have negative outlook for GNP, Employment, house prices, inflation, wages, public spending, how can we not in macroeconomic terms not be in a downwards business cycle?
A contraction due to bubble burst is not the same as a business cycle slump ... even though they look very similar:

The Irish Economy Blog Archive Mis-Diagnosis
Philip Lane- Ireland's top macroeconomist & in top 5% globally
The current recession in Ireland is not just a demand slump. The pre-crisis economy was highly distorted due to the construction boom and the debt-financed consumption boom. The economy needs to be re-orientated towards the tradables sector and that requires real devaluation.


Colm McCarthy (comments)- one of Ireland's top economists
Philip’s central point, and the burden of Patrick Honohan’s remarks to the recent ESRI/Foundation for Fiscal Studies conference, is this: we are not redressing a fiscal imbalance deriving from a cyclical downturn. We are trying to recover from a Bubble.

Two bubbles actually - a public spending bubble (including public payroll) and a credit-fuelled property bubble. These were home-grown, but are compounded by the strong exchange rate, the worldwide credit crunch and international real economy downturn. David Blanchflower has missed these points about the Irish situation.
A business cycle downturn is unwelcome... a contraction from bubble burst is necessary adjustment.

cYp
 

meriwether

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Overall in macroeconomic terms we are not in a downwards business cycle.. we are actually engaging in a necessary contraction, resulting from two bubble bursts (public pay & property)

Contraction in amounts loaned is a sign of health... and I don't quite understand why politicians won't explain this.

cYp
Wot?

There are firms going to the wall left right and centre who have nothing to do with propeorty, and were doing so well before the last budget.

Now, I appreciate that we were going to suffer from the property bubble bursting, but we have gone beyond that at this point.
There are no construction jobs left to lose. We are seeing the decimation of the real manufacturing and exporting economy, and have been seeing it for the last year.

Not a downeard cycle..........give me strength.

Secondly, the contraction of loan amounts is not a good thing.
The contraction of loans for unsustainable house price mortgages is a good thing.
The choking of access to working capital for the real economy is a very, very bad thing, which is happening right now, and has been happening for 2 years.
 

hammer

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What reason are the Banks giving for not renewing even overdrafts ?

Economic conditions or audited accounts of company ?
 

cyberianpan

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A business cycle downturn is unwelcome... a contraction from bubble burst is necessary adjustm
ent.

Is there a definition of a business cycle downturn? Philip Lane says the current recession is NOT JUST a demand slump.
A demand slump would be a business cycle downturn ... and that is not what we have

We have a bubble burst contraction

cYp
 

Digout

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What reason are the Banks giving for not renewing even overdrafts ?

Economic conditions or audited accounts of company ?
Its not only not renewing, they are withdrawing them with 1 months notice. Nothing to do with audited accounts either. They are clawing back credit left, right and center.

They are withdrawing credit from long established businesses that are solid and viable.
 

hammer

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And how do they think the company / individual can repay the overdraft. Monopoly money ?
 


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