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Eurosceptic_1

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No good if they can't be afforded by many. The market can only take so much and our unemployment rate just went through the roof. Let's not have a re-run of the ghost estates problem we had in 2008 alongside a record breaking homelessness rate.
1) If we build 1 mln apartments they would be affordable for everyone, including people on low incomes, as small studios in Dublin would be selling for €70-100K and would allow everyone to make a first step on the property ladder.

2) If we build the apartments mostly within M50 there would be continuous demand for them and there would be no ghost estates.

3) The unemployment should revert to pre-Covid-19 levels within 4-5 years.
 

Eurosceptic_1

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Also we need to build thousands of timber houses as well as modular housing in Ireland which are far cheaper than bricks and mortar housing.
1) There is no space in Dublin for building thousands of low-rise houses. We have to re-build Dublin with medium-rise (6-16 floors) and high-rise (17 floors+) apartment complexes.

2) Timber houses won’t last long with scangers and junkies, they would burn them down quickly. They all should be re-located outside of Dublin, where the cost of housing is significantly lower and settled in purposely-built medium-rise social housing concrete buildings.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
If there is no public housing how will councillors in the west get their daughters on the property ladder at taxpayer expense?
 

neiphin

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If there is no public housing how will councillors in the west get their daughters on the property ladder at taxpayer expense?
It’s not Derry
and local councillors daughters are operating at a different level
 

Stentor

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This looks BAD folks...

The Irish Banks are in a very very nasty place...

AIB shares tumbled a further 10pc on Wednesday, to trade barely above €1, with rivals Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB also weaker.

Irish bank shares are the worst hit among European peers over the past year. AIB's stock is now trading at around a third of the price seen in the first weeks of this year and is less than a quarter of its 2017 flotation price of €4.40 a share.

Bank of Ireland shares fell more than 4pc yesterday and are also roughly a third of prices at the start of the year.

Ireland's two biggest banks are the worst performers in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index over the past year,
AIB tumbles a further 10pc as investors run scared of Irish banks
We are on the verge of another huge financial Crash methinks... :confused:
Yes. Totally. They can survive. Again.
Just take absolutely no minutes at the meeting.

Bailout!
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
There may have to be another Vulcan mind-meld on a golf course somewhere where nothing at all was said by anyone at any time. One of those silent games of golf.
 

Ardillaun

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2) Timber houses won’t last long with scangers and junkies, they would burn them down quickly. They all should be re-located outside of Dublin, where the cost of housing is significantly lower and settled in purposely-built medium-rise social housing concrete buildings.
Much of North America's housing stock is wood and plastic but manages to stay up, and not everybody in social housing wants to destroy the place.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
We could have our own bannlieus, in other words. Like the periphery of Paris or the concrete jungles of Naples. Senior hurling, alright.
 

Stentor

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We could have our own bannlieus, in other words. Like the periphery of Paris or the concrete jungles of Naples. Senior hurling, alright.
St.Denis was grand. And I saw it riot in the 90's.
Once they knew I wasn't French white, all good.
Once I met Irish travellers pulled up in their caravans in the middle of St.Denis. Grand. I like travellers.

We need high rise solutions here. Done properly. Should have asked Peter Rice to look into that when we had the chance. Legend.

 

Lumpy Talbot

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Back in the 1980s it had become obvious to policymakers in Ireland and in the UK that high rise multiple occupancy places like the Chalk Hill Estate in north London, which had become a police no-go area and basically ungovernable and miserable for the decent people with no other option but to live there, were a bad idea.

What the authorities had to do in the end, and this took years, was to decant everyone to other estates while they demolished the tower blocks with the concrete walkways known as 'Muggers Paradise' and built a number of smaller, less monolithic and forbidding developments which saw a huge improvement in the area.

If you want to save money now by making the same mistakes that are being slowly undone elsewhere then fine, but you'd have to accept that there will be expensive and resource-hungry social problems to pay for in the future.

But then in Dublin the likelihood of this known mistake from social history actually happening is very high, and for one driving reason. Multi-occupancy small unit development projects are something the Irish construction industry would love to get its teeth into. With all the usual low level corruption between local authority and developers which appears to be ingrained in our culture.

And in my experience whatever the construction industry in Ireland wants it gets, and to hell with the future consequences. Ghost estates, sub-standard developments the size of kennels with walls like paper, and just about as robust as a Japanese paper-dwelling. With the recent Children's Hospital farrago the most recent government demonstrated its complete inability to control costs on a major infrastructure project.

I don't think high rise social housing is a good idea, low cost in concept but inevitably expensive over the long term. We realised in Ireland in the 1980s that Ballymun high rises were not a good environment socially or psychologically for anyone living in them and we changed policy back then visibly with local authorities building smaller linked developments which produced a much better overall result.

In large part the reason we have a homelessness problem the size it is is because we are as a society drunk on the notion of wealth and social status being attached to ownership of a property. Buy-to-let landlords are fed into the craze, told that they are doing well as investors when in fact as the last bust showed most people were just excellent at borrowing huge sums of money from the money tree the Irish banks were happily holding out in some cases ludicrously detached from the person's actual ability to repay.

We'll soon be seeing a lot of suburban and fringe of city office buildings become entirely redundant. Small shopping centres depending on footfall are going to go bust in fairly swift order is very visible on the horizon.

There's going to be a lot of development plots available out of the economic impact of the current crisis and as the saying goes you should never allow a good crisis go to waste.

Absolutely no need to pay some landbanker an extortionate amount of money for a sliver of land when this decimation of light industrial and office space slides backward onto the market.
 

Sync

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Shares up 20% from their mid March low. Exit point for me.

Does this mean AIB is a better run bank now? Nope. Does it mean it’s structural issues and external threats have disappeared? Nope.

This is the truest thing you will read about share prices this decade: they do not represent the real economy or the true value of a company. Don’t get involved in them if you think they do.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Just been explaining that to a guy in New York last week. Said so here too on a number of occasions. I gave up on the effort to get my head around economics and economic data as it currently stands.

The gap between the rather sluggish economies underlying the bullish market indices sitting on top of them is a bit stark now to be honest. We're in for interesting times.

Many people were following the Japanese helicopter printing of cash to inject into the sluggish Japanese economy. Untold billions created and pumped in in a sort of defibrillator exercise. Nothing much occurred.

There's definitely something very weird and very large going on in the government debt markets. Belgium for no apparent reason anyone can think of became the biggest holder of US government debt a few years back, mostly unnoticed and un-commented on.

I may not be an economist. But I do know when a system or process is choking on something and there is something not right about the markets and market index behaviours in relation to what they are supposed to represent in the underlying economies. Economies just becoming so abstract and surreal as to render attempts to comprehend them meaningless.
 

Sync

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There's a moral repugnance about the stock market right now. It's massively accelerating the gap between the haves and have nots. If you had 50k to invest in March of this year, you've probably doubled that over the last 2 months if you've been even half way sensible. That's now put you another 50k ahead of the person who didn't have anything to invest.

And in that time the companies you've been investing in have been getting govt bailouts and firing human beings.

A perfect example is Lufthansa. I got them at 7.45 2 months ago, I'm likely to sell midway today. That'll be a 25% return. It's only going up because the German taxpayers are giving them money and they're going to lay off thousands. But stock speculators win out big. It's not an equitable situation.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Very good example of exactly what I mean. Another elephant in the room is the valuation of unicorns in the tech sector, some of which have no appreciable revenue stream, decline an ad income because their user base would hate it and abandon their service, and are being valued in the hundreds of billions.

Some of these companies have a longer timeline in their business plan to become profitable than the Channel Tunnel construction project. That would be decades.

The valuations attached to them by the markets are patently absurd, to tulip-level.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
I took a large five figure sum off the markets last year. I hovered over a Hargreaves Lansdown brokerage account just after the arse fell out of the markets some weeks back.

I was looking at a solid defensive stock that the analysts were valuing at £33.00 as a ceiling, the shares were at £22.00 when I was tempted, so there was value there alright.

But I don't think this market is right for me. It is too volatile, we're looking at possible inversion of interest rates, governments all over the planet are abandoning austerity and being forced to do so, so all that austerity policy stuff in recent years is now a redundant issue. They are borrowing like a drunk kid with Mom's credit card.

I can't justify being anywhere near this particular roulette wheel.
 

ON THE ONE ROAD

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Jun 20, 2005
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Back in the 1980s it had become obvious to policymakers in Ireland and in the UK that high rise multiple occupancy places like the Chalk Hill Estate in north London, which had become a police no-go area and basically ungovernable and miserable for the decent people with no other option but to live there, were a bad idea.

What the authorities had to do in the end, and this took years, was to decant everyone to other estates while they demolished the tower blocks with the concrete walkways known as 'Muggers Paradise' and built a number of smaller, less monolithic and forbidding developments which saw a huge improvement in the area.

If you want to save money now by making the same mistakes that are being slowly undone elsewhere then fine, but you'd have to accept that there will be expensive and resource-hungry social problems to pay for in the future.

But then in Dublin the likelihood of this known mistake from social history actually happening is very high, and for one driving reason. Multi-occupancy small unit development projects are something the Irish construction industry would love to get its teeth into. With all the usual low level corruption between local authority and developers which appears to be ingrained in our culture.

And in my experience whatever the construction industry in Ireland wants it gets, and to hell with the future consequences. Ghost estates, sub-standard developments the size of kennels with walls like paper, and just about as robust as a Japanese paper-dwelling. With the recent Children's Hospital farrago the most recent government demonstrated its complete inability to control costs on a major infrastructure project.

I don't think high rise social housing is a good idea, low cost in concept but inevitably expensive over the long term. We realised in Ireland in the 1980s that Ballymun high rises were not a good environment socially or psychologically for anyone living in them and we changed policy back then visibly with local authorities building smaller linked developments which produced a much better overall result.

In large part the reason we have a homelessness problem the size it is is because we are as a society drunk on the notion of wealth and social status being attached to ownership of a property. Buy-to-let landlords are fed into the craze, told that they are doing well as investors when in fact as the last bust showed most people were just excellent at borrowing huge sums of money from the money tree the Irish banks were happily holding out in some cases ludicrously detached from the person's actual ability to repay.

We'll soon be seeing a lot of suburban and fringe of city office buildings become entirely redundant. Small shopping centres depending on footfall are going to go bust in fairly swift order is very visible on the horizon.

There's going to be a lot of development plots available out of the economic impact of the current crisis and as the saying goes you should never allow a good crisis go to waste.

Absolutely no need to pay some landbanker an extortionate amount of money for a sliver of land when this decimation of light industrial and office space slides backward onto the market.

interesting point on office space and small shopping centres. Even before covid19 the high street was moving on line and being replaced by coffee shops. Was wondering for a while who was bothering with that new shopping centre at the central bank.


White color jobs that can be done from home may move out of large cities. Smaller cities bigger towns.
 

puffin

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Shares up 20% from their mid March low. Exit point for me.

Does this mean AIB is a better run bank now? Nope. Does it mean it’s structural issues and external threats have disappeared? Nope.

This is the truest thing you will read about share prices this decade: they do not represent the real economy or the true value of a company. Don’t get involved in them if you think they do.
Money Printing and artificially low interest rates, dropping into negative, this was a suckers rally, aka the last chance for the smart money to get out.
 

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