An Electoral Open Goal for Sinn Fein?

midlander12

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When even a committed SF supporter is tacitly admitting that the party leader is a liability it suggests that they won't do well.

There's a limit to how much a party can do to keep a poor leader out of sight during an election and for SF that limit will be reached on Monday night when the 7-way debate is held on RTE.
I see Varadkar says she should not be excluded from his debate with Martin on Feb 4.
 


Baron von Biffo

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Gerry Adam was considered by the enemies of SF, & indeed by some SF supporters as a "liability" as a leader,
yet under his leadership SF's representation in the Dáil rose by several hundred %.
Isn't it interesting that other parties have rivals and opponents but SF has enemies?

As for your main point, a leader can be an asset for a long time but eventually become a liability. Look at Ahern in FF for example.

Secondly, It's not at all unknown for parties to replace one liability with another, especially when the successor is anointed rather than having to fight for the job. Again, look at FF when Cowen replaced Ahern.
 

midlander12

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Yes. While the childrens hospital budget is out to lunch in every respect, SF want us to subsidise the 6 counties by €12,000,000,000 a year.

All the parties have some baloola uncosted huge its-my-dream unfeasible plans.
Yes this is the key point. After 2 GE's thankfully largely free of this nonsense, we have returned to hopeless Dutch auction politics, and SF are probably no worse in that regard than the others.

Those of us of a certain age know full well that the country is heading for another bankruptcy, the only issue being whether this will happen before or after the next GE which I'm assuming will be in 2024 depending on what melange emerges from Feb 8. The children's hospital is typical of these flagship projects that become like phallic symbols for whichever lot happens to be in power, and like the Bertiebowl and the M4 to Sligo will probably be overtaken by non-liquid reality.

In relation to SF being the 'alternative' to FF/FG, as far as I know they are running 42 candidates, of whom at most 30 are seriously contending for seats. But let's assume all 42 are elected, in a parallel universe. They still need 38 more to get to a majority. Assuming they and Sol/PBP, Rise, I4C etc can agree on the venue for a meeting never mind everything else, that might get them to 50, though most of those other left seats would probably been already taken by the 42 SF TD's. They'd then need Lab, the SD's and the Greens (probably at most 15 between them if SF get 42 and good luck with that), to get them near 70. And then who....the Healy Raes? Michael Collins? Lowry?
 

tsarbomb

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Sinn Féin will lose seats in this election. They had their opportunity in 2016 and they wasted it.
 

Cdebru

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I see Varadkar says she should not be excluded from his debate with Martin on Feb 4.

Because Varadkar knows that SF are benefiting from the absence of MLM, the sad reality is that Pearse Doherty should have been leader, but they wanted a woman to soften their image and MLM has the aura of middle class around her, unfortunately the aura only impressed for a very short period and had well and truly wore off before she ever became leader. But changing tactics is not a strong point for the Provos took them 30 years to realise the armed struggle was counter productive.
 

midlander12

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Because Varadkar knows that SF are benefiting from the absence of MLM, the sad reality is that Pearse Doherty should have been leader, but they wanted a woman to soften their image and MLM has the aura of middle class around her, unfortunately the aura only impressed for a very short period and had well and truly wore off before she ever became leader. But changing tactics is not a strong point for the Provos took them 30 years to realise the armed struggle was counter productive.
And why didn't he run I wonder? I'm not convinced by the way that him being leader would resolve the issue.
 

hiding behind a poster

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€2.5 Billion for a children's hospital???
In a normal country the Police would be called in immediately, arrests made, corruption thoroughly investigated...the finance and costs investigated.....and the decision makers held accountable.
Watch as another bogus inquiry is set up.....millions more made by the rich as a result...and the report whitewashed and forgotten about.
People vote for these corrupt bastards?
If it's all so obvious, why don't you a) spill the beans; and b) explain how you'd do it cheaper?
 

Cdebru

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And why didn't he run I wonder? I'm not convinced by the way that him being leader would resolve the issue.
Because that's not how SF works, the AC decides who the leader is going to be and then it is a done deal. And just to prove thats the way it is they had a pretend challenge for the deputy leadership last year, to counteract the well founded belief that democracy does not exist with in SF.
 

Baron von Biffo

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And why didn't he run I wonder? I'm not convinced by the way that him being leader would resolve the issue.
It wouldn't. Doherty is to SF what Cowen was for FF - A tribal party man who's loved by the faithful but who has very limited appeal beyond that.

Nor would O'Broin be a great choice. He has a look about him of someone Hollywood casting would choose as a commissar for a film about the Bolsheviks. I can just see him on the steppe, slaughtering Kulaks and stealing their corn.
 

Catahualpa

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It wouldn't. Doherty is to SF what Cowen was for FF - A tribal party man who's loved by the faithful but who has very limited appeal beyond that.

Nor would O'Broin be a great choice. He has a look about him of someone Hollywood casting would choose as a commissar for a film about the Bolsheviks. I can just see him on the steppe, slaughtering Kulaks and stealing their corn.
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Russia 1920

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Ireland 2020

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Cdebru

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It wouldn't. Doherty is to SF what Cowen was for FF - A tribal party man who's loved by the faithful but who has very limited appeal beyond that.

Nor would O'Broin be a great choice. He has a look about him of someone Hollywood casting would choose as a commissar for a film about the Bolsheviks. I can just see him on the steppe, slaughtering Kulaks and stealing their corn.
I agree on O'Broin, he is SF's version of Paul Murphy, but I think O'Doherty has appeal outside of SF, that MLM just irritates.
I also disagree on Cowen, he was the poor unfortunate in charge when the bomb went off, not that he is completely innocent of creating the situation but he was the one holding the baby.
I think in a different time Cowens leadership would never have been as unpopular as it turned out to be.
 

mangaire2

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Actually SF appear intent on becoming either Tweedledum or Tweedledee after the election.
-& your looney leftie alphabets (how many parties make up the 2% or 3% ?)
appear intent in remaining Tweedledumb & Tweedledumber !!!!
 

Ardillaun

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It wouldn't. Doherty is to SF what Cowen was for FF - A tribal party man who's loved by the faithful but who has very limited appeal beyond that.
Doherty has potential as an angry populist and he’s a lot more animated than Cowen ever was. His day may come.

I think the point about the NCH is reasonable. Although the failure of oversight goes way beyond the FG leadership, it’s a legitimate political issue.
 
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Lumpy Talbot

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No
As a political argument with a halo of benefit for Sinn Fein in particular and nothing but electoral negativity for all other parties in the election to one degree or another it is a classic situation, it is all 'alpha' as they say in the city for SF on this one.

They are the only party I can think of in the election which cannot realistically lose votes over the NCH scandal. They are the only party either primarily or at second-hand to be entirely free of risk on that political ground.

I'd be astonished if they blazed this one wide of the post. There's not even a goalkeeper.
 


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