Angela -- Frau Merkel

yosef shompeter

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Auf Wiedersehen: Angela Merkel still standing as leaders bow out

I think many posters have on topics Europeénne been beating around the bush or barking up the wrong tree. Most of the thing revolves around Angela Merkel. Am I complaining? No I'm simply admitting what happens in most democratically run organizations, whether it's a tennis club or an ad-hoc charity or whatever: The member with the money decides on the issues, especially if the other members are skint. After all, the well-monied member, if he/she doesn't like what's going on, she can take up her marbles and become a passive member and all projects will be financed out of the club kitty... which won't amount to much.

I read in today's Irish times (14th dec) no link, sorry maybe it's up tomorrow ... Derek Scally's report that Schaeuble, her finance minister has a network of supporters and might be in the process of challenging her. Whether he's wrong or right, whether his observation turns out to be significant or not, well he makes good reading.
And if Merkel goes, then that would be a major change for Germany, the EU, the Eurozone, for Ireland and for us all

I hope I have not tread on the corns (or testicles) of any idealistic diehard European democrats with my observation.
 


gerhard dengler

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Auf Wiedersehen: Angela Merkel still standing as leaders bow out

I think many posters have on topics Europeénne been beating around the bush or barking up the wrong tree. Most of the thing revolves around Angela Merkel. Am I complaining? No I'm simply admitting what happens in most democratically run organizations, whether it's a tennis club or an ad-hoc charity or whatever: The member with the money decides on the issues, especially if the other members are skint. After all, the well-monied member, if he/she doesn't like what's going on, she can take up her marbles and become a passive member and all projects will be financed out of the club kitty... which won't amount to much.

I read in today's Irish times (14th dec) no link, sorry maybe it's up tomorrow ... Derek Scally's report that Schaeuble, her finance minister has a network of supporters and might be in the process of challenging her. Whether he's wrong or right, whether his observation turns out to be significant or not, well he makes good reading.
And if Merkel goes, then that would be a major change for Germany, the EU, the Eurozone, for Ireland and for us all

I hope I have not tread on the corns (or testicles) of any idealistic diehard European democrats with my observation.
It's the one thing I do miss since I stopped buying/reading the Irish Times, and that is Derek Scally's articles.

According to other media I've read there has always been differences between Schauble and Merkel in terms of political direction and in terms of economic policy.
It doesn't surprise me that there is speculation about a move against Merkel by those who support Schauble.
 

yosef shompeter

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It's the one thing I do miss since I stopped buying/reading the Irish Times, and that is Derek Scally's articles.

According to other media I've read there has always been differences between Schauble and Merkel in terms of political direction and in terms of economic policy.
It doesn't surprise me that there is speculation about a move against Merkel by those who support Schauble.
Perhaps Derek Scally's short article will be free online tomorrow. It makes good reading. He is certainly in a better position to view things up close than we are over in an oileán grámhar.
 

Shpake

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Debatte um Obergrenze - Seehofer: CSU in der Opposition vorstellbar | Politik

Can't call mysefl an expert on all things German political but I stumbled across this above from today. It's the head of Merkel's coalition party CSU -- the Bavarian branch.
He seems to be saying that if Angela does not agree to setting a limit to the nr of refugees accepted that he and the CSU will go over to the opposition.

Will that influence the SPD? Would not claim to know much about it. I kinda got the feeling that the SPD supported Frau Merkel on the refugee topic, but I could be wrong.
After all, the SPD would really like to be the ruling party.
 

Toland

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Debatte um Obergrenze - Seehofer: CSU in der Opposition vorstellbar | Politik

Can't call mysefl an expert on all things German political but I stumbled across this above from today. It's the head of Merkel's coalition party CSU -- the Bavarian branch.
He seems to be saying that if Angela does not agree to setting a limit to the nr of refugees accepted that he and the CSU will go over to the opposition.

Will that influence the SPD? Would not claim to know much about it. I kinda got the feeling that the SPD supported Frau Merkel on the refugee topic, but I could be wrong.
After all, the SPD would really like to be the ruling party.
If the CSU go over to the opposition, it's split and the CDU will organize in Bavaria.

The CSU don't want that to happen.

I'd say it's an empty threat.

Could be wrong.

In some ways, seeing what's happening in Bavaria is easier from Ireland than from Berlin.
 

diaspora-mick

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If the CSU go over to the opposition, it's split and the CDU will organize in Bavaria.

The CSU don't want that to happen.

I'd say it's an empty threat.


Could be wrong.

In some ways, seeing what's happening in Bavaria is easier from Ireland than from Berlin.
The only empty threat is that the CDU could organise in Bavaria.
It'd be like FF trying to organise up in the Wee Six.
Snowball's chance in hell ...
 

Analyzer

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Merkel as a problem solver has been a disaster.

Every problem, eventually morphed into an all out crisis under her guidance.

Her starting point was that Schroeder implemented the Hartz IV reforms which revived German competitiveness. She then followed this up by lecturing the rest of Europe that they all needed to do the same, whilst she stood proudly over the resilts as if they were her achievent. What marketing genius would talk down to customers and insult them into wanting to buy from the competition. To say nothing of ruining their ability to purchase again by overwhelming them with debt.

Greece should have been allowed to default and start again. Instead it was given a murderous austerity program and more debt. And then more debt.

Ireland likewise, which is an achievement of statistical fudge over necessary internal realignment.

She also took Germany's history of having good relationships with all it's neighbours and destroyed that also.

Her treatment of Cameron was master class of how to not play your part in a critical bilateral relationship.

Until it reached the point that Britain opted out of the Merkel dominated EU decision making blunder machine.

Needless to say, in her push for more power in central decision making bodies in Europe she has avoided the urgent need to examine their current ( abysmal ) performance.

Could they find anybody worse ?

Well we replaced Bertie Ahern with Brian Cowen. You just never know....
 
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Toland

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Merkel as a problem solver has been a disaster.
Many Germans disagree with you strongly.

Merkel as a vote getter has been an absolute wunder.

The centre loves her and the social democrats can't help but support her. She's the reason why the SPD are on their uppers.

She's stolen their ground and appears to be keeping it. The right in her coalition have been grumbling about her since she first appeared. And she's been running rings around them.

She's still running rings around them.
 

APettigrew92

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Many Germans disagree with you strongly.

Merkel as a vote getter has been an absolute wunder.

The centre loves her and the social democrats can't help but support her. She's the reason why the SPD are on their uppers.

She's stolen their ground and appears to be keeping it. The right in her coalition have been grumbling about her since she first appeared. And she's been running rings around them.

She's still running rings around them.
I am afraid you may be suffering from political insulation, mein guter Mann.

The truth is that Germany, being the highly urbanized country that it is, is uniquely insulated from opinions of the rural types. Where are migrants resettled? Wherever the cheapest residence is to be found. Where are property prices lowest? Why, in post-industrialist areas where unemployment is high and opportunities are few.

Who usually populates those areas? Ethnic Germans whose family have lived there for decades and who have the least chances of that social mobility often promised to European citizens as a hold but enjoyed by only a handful in truth.

What effect does resettling immigrants have on wealthy areas? Why, it drives down property prices. It leads to social dissension. It leads to enormous pressure on local and often non-existent social services.

Merkel's policy was heartfelt. The problem is that in Europe's largest economy, you need to have a heart in equal measure as you do a head.

Positivity went awry in the USA. It went awry in the UK. It will go awry in Germany.

At the CDU conference, Merkel was asked to step down. Did she respond with logic? With truth? With a humble recognition of the burden that Germany now bears?

No. She paraded some young child on the stage as if that one child's optimism would dissipate the dissension stirring across Germany. That was emotional. That was not logical. That was decidedly unprofessional. Once the euphoria and back-patting wears off, Germany will realize that it faces an enormous challenge.

It is rarely the person who creates that problem who is elected to deal with it.
 

jmcc

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In some ways, seeing what's happening in Bavaria is easier from Ireland than from Berlin.
So you are Germany's Sarah Palin? :)

What way would that kind of reorganisation affect the elections next year? Would AfD effectively gain seats and would a situation much like the French situation (the Left/Centre helping each other to stop LePen and the National Front)?

Could Merkel actually end up destroying her party's electoral chances especially if there's a repeat of last year's Christmas activities?
 

Toland

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I am afraid you may be suffering from political insulation, mein guter Mann.

The truth is that Germany, being the highly urbanized country that it is, is uniquely insulated from opinions of the rural types. Where are migrants resettled? Wherever the cheapest residence is to be found. Where are property prices lowest? Why, in post-industrialist areas where unemployment is high and opportunities are few.

Who usually populates those areas? Ethnic Germans whose family have lived there for decades and who have the least chances of that social mobility often promised to European citizens as a hold but enjoyed by only a handful in truth.

What effect does resettling immigrants have on wealthy areas? Why, it drives down property prices. It leads to social dissension. It leads to enormous pressure on local and often non-existent social services.

Merkel's policy was heartfelt. The problem is that in Europe's largest economy, you need to have a heart in equal measure as you do a head.

Positivity went awry in the USA. It went awry in the UK. It will go awry in Germany.

At the CDU conference, Merkel was asked to step down. Did she respond with logic? With truth? With a humble recognition of the burden that Germany now bears?

No. She paraded some young child on the stage as if that one child's optimism would dissipate the dissension stirring across Germany. That was emotional. That was not logical. That was decidedly unprofessional. Once the euphoria and back-patting wears off, Germany will realize that it faces an enormous challenge.

It is rarely the person who creates that problem who is elected to deal with it.
There are loads of refugees across the road from my office. The areas is heavily urbanised, and populated by a mix of ethnic Germans, Turks, Arabs and sub-Saharan Africans, in that order of population size.

And most of the rest of your post is nonsense too.

While I may be less than as knowledgeable about Germany as I should be, your ignorance of the place appears to be as prodigious as your imagination.

The problem the CDU has is that it doesn't like Merkel. She's everything the CDU isn't. But they know she's what gets them elected.
 

Toland

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Could Merkel actually end up destroying her party's electoral chances especially if there's a repeat of last year's Christmas activities?
I doubt it. They'll continue to leak a bit to AfD, but that's more than made up for by the fact that the better sort of FDP voter and practically the whole of the SPD's traditional support can't help but like her. And the German economy is looking fairly good at the moment.

And the hyperbole merchants on the refugees have been counterproductive to their case so far. The rivers of blood stuff just hasn't come to pass -- so far, some will say -- but the fact is that it just hasn't produced as many problems in the short term as expected.

AfD are not a pretty lot, but they're no NPD either.

And NPD are going down the pan as a result of their emergence.
 

yosef shompeter

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There are loads of refugees across the road from my office. The areas is heavily urbanised, and populated by a mix of ethnic Germans, Turks, Arabs and sub-Saharan Africans, in that order of population size.

And most of the rest of your post is nonsense too.

While I may be less than as knowledgeable about Germany as I should be, your ignorance of the place appears to be as prodigious as your imagination.

The problem the CDU has is that it doesn't like Merkel. She's everything the CDU isn't. But they know she's what gets them elected.
Well I did a troll of the German news and didn't find any signs of Derek Scally's take on it all. But if you are "in Situ" then you're in a better position test the "pulse" of the nation and the "pulse" of the taxi-drivers who they say mostly have a good idea of the general mood.
Course events are happening very fast now and 2017 won't give much respite.
 

yosef shompeter

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The only empty threat is that the CDU could organise in Bavaria.
It'd be like FF trying to organise up in the Wee Six.
Snowball's chance in hell ...
CDU organize in Bavaria? Well it's possible. But the response would be the CSU would organize in greater Germany outside of Bavaria. Not as ridiculous as it seems as CSU and Seehofer are following a policy of limiting refugee nrs. (of Course Angela Merkel is kind of doing that in her own way to at the moment -- at least she's doing lip-service.
 

Tacitus

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Auf Wiedersehen: Angela Merkel still standing as leaders bow out

I think many posters have on topics Europeénne been beating around the bush or barking up the wrong tree. Most of the thing revolves around Angela Merkel. Am I complaining? No I'm simply admitting what happens in most democratically run organizations, whether it's a tennis club or an ad-hoc charity or whatever: The member with the money decides on the issues, especially if the other members are skint. After all, the well-monied member, if he/she doesn't like what's going on, she can take up her marbles and become a passive member and all projects will be financed out of the club kitty... which won't amount to much.

I read in today's Irish times (14th dec) no link, sorry maybe it's up tomorrow ... Derek Scally's report that Schaeuble, her finance minister has a network of supporters and might be in the process of challenging her. Whether he's wrong or right, whether his observation turns out to be significant or not, well he makes good reading.
And if Merkel goes, then that would be a major change for Germany, the EU, the Eurozone, for Ireland and for us all

I hope I have not tread on the corns (or testicles) of any idealistic diehard European democrats with my observation.
Schäuble is indeed the only politician in the CDU who could succesfully overthrow Merkel. There were rumours at the height of the refugee crisis that some CDU politicians asked him to stage a coup against her, but he refused because of two reasons: Firstly Merkel had been very loyal to him, and supported him when he fell ill in 2010 due to a complication of the wound he received during an assassination attempt that left him in a wheel chair. He offered his resignation, but she told him to take his time to recover. Secondly, he probably did not want to go down in history as a queen slayer, which brings us to Merkel's biggest advantage: She is still very popular among Germans. Of course, her popularity has declined, but you have to put that in context: Merkel had for a time the highest approval ratings of any German chancellor in the history of Germany. Compared to that, her ratings have dropped, but more than half of the Germans still approve of her. That is more than enough to be reelected.

Merkel as a problem solver has been a disaster.

Every problem, eventually morphed into an all out crisis under her guidance.

Her starting point was that Schroeder implemented the Hartz IV reforms which revived German competitiveness. She then followed this up by lecturing the rest of Europe that they all needed to do the same, whilst she stood proudly over the resilts as if they were her achievent. What marketing genius would talk down to customers and insult them into wanting to buy from the competition. To say nothing of ruining their ability to purchase again by overwhelming them with debt.

Greece should have been allowed to default and start again. Instead it was given a murderous austerity program and more debt. And then more debt.

Ireland likewise, which is an achievement of statistical fudge over necessary internal realignment.

She also took Germany's history of having good relationships with all it's neighbours and destroyed that also.

Her treatment of Cameron was master class of how to not play your part in a critical bilateral relationship.

Until it reached the point that Britain opted out of the Merkel dominated EU decision making blunder machine.

Needless to say, in her push for more power in central decision making bodies in Europe she has avoided the urgent need to examine their current ( abysmal ) performance.

Could they find anybody worse ?

Well we replaced Bertie Ahern with Brian Cowen. You just never know....
This is your opinion, but I assure you that is not what most Germans think about her. She is seen as "Krisenkanzlerin", as someone who is very good at dealing with crises. And if you look at it objectively, that is not without justification:

Despite many predictions, the Euro still exists. That countries like Greece are still in trouble is viewed as their own fault, since they chose political mavericks like Varoufakis and Tsipras as leaders and still have not implemented reforms that are deemed as necessary to regain competivness. In fact, most would have liked her to be tougher on Greece and force them out of the Euro which Schäube advocated.

The Ukraine crises: Probably the most defining crises. I cannot stress enough how well her negotiations with Putin, particulary her brokering the Minsk peace deal have been received in Germany.

'Merkel mania' as hyperactive chancellor tackles Ukraine, Greece | Reuters

Her popularity was at its' height in the following weeks, the fact that the Minsk treaty has not been fully implemented is not seen as her fault. Her strategy to keep talking with Putin, instead of escalating the conflict like the USA wanted is precisely what the Germans wanted, there hardly anything more we fear than a war with Russia, yet that she has stood firm against Russian agression is also seen as defending Germany's interest of having a secure and stable Eastern neighbourhood. I'll vote for her next year because I believe - and even people who do not like the CDU agree - that she is the only Western politician capable of talkin eye-to-eye with Putin.

Regarding Brexit:

Again, the German view is very different. There was little to no understanding for the British wishes for concessions, and Cameron was often mocked for his wishes which were seen as directly against German interests or European law. Even the AfD (who btw. are not advocating for a Gerexit) did not criticize her for a lack of concession, because the view here is that she gave Cameron all she could. The view on Cameron is obviously very harsh here.
 

Felixness

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I'd really like to say that the German people will see sense and not re-elect her, but it wouldn't surprise me if they give her another term. I know that sounds like madness but the Germans are so paranoid about their history that they seem willing to turn a blind eye to things. The figures for Cologne on New Year's Eve have been buried in end of quarter statistics for last Spring, so therefore they officially didn't happen.

The State prosecutor wrote to 2 women who'd been sexually assaulted by migrants at a festival earlier this year and told them that there was no case to answer and that a group of migrants sticking their hands between these young women's legs was, and I qoute ''interest in them''. Merkel's response to German citizens fear of what migrants are doing is for them to approach migrants. Yeah, what could possibly go wrong with that? :roll:
 

Breanainn

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Lookit, you appear to know more about it than me. I bow to your superior knowledge.
He's right, as the CSU is historically separate due to a post-war response to Bavarian particularism. Immediately after WWII, the major party in the Land was the Bayernpärtei, who were essentially the equivalent of the SNP. The CSU stole their electoral clothes by equally playing to Bavarian regionalism and Catholic values, so, as mentioned, the CSU could expand by appealing to Catholic Germans, but the CDU couldn't survive in the region.
 

jmcc

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Perhaps, given the mess Merkel has made of things, we should start to refer to her on P.ie as "Blunderwoman".
 


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