Another election?

Marcos the black

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To me, and from talking to others it seems that we are not to get have a govt in the near future, and we will not have one until another election has been held.
This is the opening shots, and the finger pointing will start as to why no govt could be formed.
In my humble opinion I think FF have the most to fear from another election and heading back into another one with Michael Martin in charge is not what they want.
I think both SF, FG and Labour will be happy to have another one and with the imminent recession on the cards due to Covid 19, stability will be the main topic.
What about you? Do you think we are heading towards another election?
 


wombat

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To me, and from talking to others it seems that we are not to get have a govt in the near future, and we will not have one until another election has been held.
I think the idea of an election is nonsense. If Greens don't join the other 2, there are enough independents to make up the numbers. Most of those guys need at least 3 years of mileage and expenses to pay off their election debt. If FF & FG can't agree, Martin will be gone & FF will deal with SF. I doubt anyone in FG believes their current poll rating - as someone said, they got no Brexit boost, they won't get one from Covid either.
 

Marcos the black

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I think the idea of an election is nonsense. If Greens don't join the other 2, there are enough independents to make up the numbers. Most of those guys need at least 3 years of mileage and expenses to pay off their election debt. If FF & FG can't agree, Martin will be gone & FF will deal with SF. I doubt anyone in FG believes their current poll rating - as someone said, they got no Brexit boost, they won't get one from Covid either.
Will FF and FG agree a programme?
 

Uganda

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To me, and from talking to others it seems that we are not to get have a govt in the near future, and we will not have one until another election has been held.
This is the opening shots, and the finger pointing will start as to why no govt could be formed.
In my humble opinion I think FF have the most to fear from another election and heading back into another one with Michael Martin in charge is not what they want.
I think both SF, FG and Labour will be happy to have another one and with the imminent recession on the cards due to Covid 19, stability will be the main topic.
What about you? Do you think we are heading towards another election?
it is a distinct possibility.

however, as you say. FG, Sf and maybe Lab might welcome it.

FF will be scared (sh)witless by it. As will many of the headbangers (Mick Barry & co) who effectively owe their seat to sf, and will do anything to avoid another run.

other inds like Lowry Healy Raes etc wont like it but will be sure of re-election.

that leaves soc dems and greens. The less established soc dems will be nervous.

but imho the greens are the ones with most to lose. They will be perceived (Fairly or unfairly) as having prevented the formation of a govt and will pay a price for that.

catherine Martin in particular could well be in trouble. Word from the ff camp in that constituency is that they can take her out if they run the right candidate. The good burgers of Dublin rathdown don’t like to elect politicians to be in opposition
 

Uganda

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I think the idea of an election is nonsense. If Greens don't join the other 2, there are enough independents to make up the numbers. Most of those guys need at least 3 years of mileage and expenses to pay off their election debt. If FF & FG can't agree, Martin will be gone & FF will deal with SF. I doubt anyone in FG believes their current poll rating - as someone said, they got no Brexit boost, they won't get one from Covid either.
I’m not sure FG would have a problem going into opposition.
 

wombat

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I’m not sure FG would have a problem going into opposition.
I think they had reconciled themselves to it after the election, they thought FF would have the numbers to lead a govt.
 

carlovian

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To me, and from talking to others it seems that we are not to get have a govt in the near future, and we will not have one until another election has been held.
This is the opening shots, and the finger pointing will start as to why no govt could be formed.
In my humble opinion I think FF have the most to fear from another election and heading back into another one with Michael Martin in charge is not what they want.
I think both SF, FG and Labour will be happy to have another one and with the imminent recession on the cards due to Covid 19, stability will be the main topic.
What about you? Do you think we are heading towards another election?
Good analysis.

FG are 50-50about going back in whereas its Martins last chance.

A lot of the possible ff ministers have never tasted power and want it badly.

Murphy and Harris of fg just want a break.
 

Dame_Enda

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I think holding one during lockdown would be cynical in the extreme and the President should refuse to allow a Dail dissolution if Leo requests one this year. Social distancing would slow down voting if applied in polling stations
 
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carlovian

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I think they had reconciled themselves to it after the election, they thought FF would have the numbers to lead a govt.
Whatever happened to that “preparing for opposition” line.

And what does it mean ?
 

Uganda

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I think holding one during lockdown would be cynical in the extreme and the President should refuse to allow a Dail dissolution if Leo requests one this year. Social distancing would slow down voting if applied in polling stations
if the current dail can’t form a govt, the President will have no option but to dissolve it.
 

Dame_Enda

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if the current dail can’t form a govt, the President will have no option but to dissolve it.
The President has the power to refuse dissolution to a Taoiseach that doesnt have the support of a Dail majority.

I think there is growing pressure in FF to talk to SF (at local level at least), and more so there is growing opposition to Coalition with FF within FG. In fact I suspect FG itself has no intention of forming a govt with FF. They are playing for time.
 

Marcos the black

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I think holding one during lockdown would be cynical in the extreme and the President should refuse to allow a Dail dissolution if Leo requests one this year. Social distancing would slow down voting if applied in polling stations
So, if no govt can be formed, and if no election can be held we continue as we are?
 

SuirView

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I’m not sure FG would have a problem going into opposition.
If you look at the history books,
FG are well used to opposition in the 26!
 

Marcos the black

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The President has the power to refuse dissolution to a Taoiseach that doesnt have the support of a Dail majority.

I think there is growing pressure in FF to talk to SF (at local level at least), and more so there is growing opposition to Coalition with FF within FG. In fact I suspect FG itself has no intention of forming a govt with FF. They are playing for time.
I agree. I think a SF FF coalition is more likely than a FG FF...
 

Uganda

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The President has the power to refuse dissolution to a Taoiseach that doesnt have the support of a Dail majority.

I think there is growing pressure in FF to talk to SF (at local level at least), and more so there is growing opposition to Coalition with FF within FG. In fact I suspect FG itself has no intention of forming a govt with FF. They are playing for time.
he does have the legal power to refuse a dissolution

but if ff & FG can’t put it together do you really believe ff will oust MM and do a deal with sf (& greens)?
 

Marcos the black

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if the current dail can’t form a govt, the President will have no option but to dissolve it.
We're in an interesting bind and to me I think that another election is the most likely option... Failing that then an uneasy alliance of SF and FF both afraid of the other.
I can't see FF and FG agreeing a programme for govt and if they do it will be short lived, very very short lived.
Also there is the Michael Martin factor. He has to step down before FF face another election or they face a wipeout. So they will need time to replace him... Which means that they will ultimately be a weakened partner in any Govt talks, so if it's going to be a FG/FF govt then I expect Leo to continue as Taoiseach for the initial stage..
 

Marcos the black

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God almighty can you just imagine the shinners on here?

everytime there’s a cockup of some sort, they will get tetchier and tetchier by the week.
No, they won't... They'll (and the party) will blame FF for every promise they can't deliver and in the following election will mop the floor with them.
 


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