Any views on what the likely candidates will be for Cork East in the GE?



bprob

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results for cork east 2007 general election

oireachtas library cork east constituency profile

constituency commission recommendations 2007 cork is on pages 16-18.
areas of carrignavar, glenville, kildinan, watergrasshill, rahan and ballynamona are moving from cork east to cork north central, which may make cork north central more interesting as more rural voters enter the urban constituency. personally i don't think it will make much difference there as those are all commuter areas, with similar concerns to the urban voters.

you'd have to say 2 FF TD's looks unlikely at the next election, based on national figures. however, its tough to extrapolate that to a local situation, and its equally tough to make an argument for a second Labour seat. a second FG seat looks more likely, though i won't be making any bets
 

bprob

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i see there was a thread on cork east started last year.
perhaps this thread should be merged with that one?
 

daithi(ff)

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Well Ned and Ml.Ahern are certain to run their won’t be any one else in ff in cork east wanting to run this time around anyway. Looking from the outside id say that Stanton will be a dead cert but I don’t know about Bradford, Tom Barry and O Driscoll both have intentions to run and a lot of people think that not getting in,in 2 elections will be enough for bradford.sherlock will be a dead cert too will they run Noel McCarthy in Fermoy and Mulvhill they might run 3 to max the vote
 

rambler

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Well Ned and Ml.Ahern are certain to run their won’t be any one else in ff in cork east wanting to run this time around anyway. Looking from the outside id say that Stanton will be a dead cert but I don’t know about Bradford, Tom Barry and O Driscoll both have intentions to run and a lot of people think that not getting in,in 2 elections will be enough for bradford.sherlock will be a dead cert too will they run Noel McCarthy in Fermoy and Mulvhill they might run 3 to max the vote
The talk around Cobh is that Quinlan would be the preferred choice, like Bradford, Mulvihill would be a 3 time loser.
 

dotski_w_

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i think if we had a election today it would be 1 ff 1 lab 2 fg
current polls, depending on the company / methodology you like, show LP on between 2.2 times and 3.2 times the vote they got last time. 1.6 times their '07 vote in Cork East (half the MRBI result) would give them 33.5%, with SF and GP looking at about 10% between them.

Do you just think that the polls are wrong, or that LP are on 90% in Dublin?
 

jacko

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current polls, depending on the company / methodology you like, show LP on between 2.2 times and 3.2 times the vote they got last time. 1.6 times their '07 vote in Cork East (half the MRBI result) would give them 33.5%, with SF and GP looking at about 10% between them.

Do you just think that the polls are wrong, or that LP are on 90% in Dublin?
lets just say that the Labour ticket in Cork East is less cohesive than the party would hope for
 

daithi(ff)

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i think that in cork east this will happen but i think it would be very hard for lab to get more than 1 seat here this is a very traditional constituency always either 2+2 or 2+1+1 if lab get 2 do you think fg will get only 1 or there will be no ff
 

Rocket Man

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As a resident in Cork East I must say that at this stage I am inclined to agree with the analysis: ff 1, fg 2, Lab 1. I would say that Sherlock and Stanton are safe and that one ff seat is certain to fall. The big question here is which of the two is the more likely casualty. With the big growth in population in the eastern end of the constituency it would appear to me that Ahern may have the advantage. Any thoughts?
 

bprob

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current polls, depending on the company / methodology you like, show LP on between 2.2 times and 3.2 times the vote they got last time. 1.6 times their '07 vote in Cork East (half the MRBI result) would give them 33.5%, with SF and GP looking at about 10% between them.

Do you just think that the polls are wrong, or that LP are on 90% in Dublin?
neither: LP just aren't on or anywhere near 33.5% in cork east.

o'driscoll would be an interesting cat among the FG pigeons. he performed admirably against his own party running mate, aileen pyne in the local elections, though she had garnered a reputation as a developers friend, and that certainly didn't go down well in places like rathcormac, which is o'driscoll's home turf, incidentally.

if o'driscoll was to look for a nomination, he would surely unseat bradford at the selection convention, as stanton backed enda kenny at the leadership heave. i'm not sure who bradford backed, but he is engaged to lucinda creighton, so i'm guessing he was anti-Enda
 

honesty101

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Needless to say we would hope to see Ahern and O'Keeffe lose their seats. My thoughts are that Ned's son will run in his stead and that Ahern will bow out gracefully as his time is also up. Only staunch FFers would continue to support Ahern & O'Keeffe. I agree that Stanton and Sherlock will hold their seats. There will be a lot of new faces seeking nominations by their respective parties and that is what is required for people to have any confidence in any future government.
Following on from that I am seriously considering running as an independent myself. I am an unknown but am so angry by the way this government has treated us, and my lack of faith in in the incoming government of a FG/Labour coalition that I believe that I have no choice. There needs to be many more serious independent candidates put themselves forward for the electorate to feel that their candidate will vote on their behalf with their social conscience as opposed to their parties dictate.
In this instance I am asking for supporters of alternate, unknown candidates to make themselves known to me. The reason being is that I have to be prepared for a snap election if I am to be regarded as a serious contender. The statistics from previous elections make for terrible reading for an independent candidate. Thus, I am planning well ahead and will be attempting to meet people individually to garnish support.
I look forward to your opinions.....
 

just_society3

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If FG ran a candidate in Mitchelstown/Fermoy, it might do a great job of taking Ned's seat. I think Ned is far cuter than Michale Ahern. The regular anti-govt outbursts will appeal to his supporters. Ahern is very quiet by comparsion.
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Sandra McLellan will probably run again for Sinn Fein. As far as I'm aware she's the only Youghal based candidate.

Could be interesting.
 


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