Apocaplypse Angie

yosef shompeter

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Angela Merkel: Clouds Cast Shadow on Chancellor's Worldview - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Makes very good reading and shows the dour view that Frau Merkel has of Europe's future.
In summary: Trump tells her that America has enough problems so if it comes to a "tiff" with Putin, Europe should solve it... or that's the feeling I get from this article
Incidentally, Trump wants a trade war too. Germany will be the big loser here.
Putin wants to recreate the old Soviet Union in Russia. Well is it only now that you have admitted this to yourself?
Brexit, the Brits want out. Not good when a major economy wants to leave your club, but have no fear! There are loads of chicken-chit, dirt-poor economies with tin-pot armies and ethnic enrichment who are willing to take Britain's place over there out east (or south).
Italy on the rocks and threatening to throw its toys out of the pram. Seems like they fiddled the books to get into the Euro zone, they screwed up by not invigorating their economy and were hit hard by the recession. 30% of people under 25 unemployed... (That bad?). Nevertheless they are furious with Europe for allowing them to keep all the cultural enrichment from Africa, Syria and Afghanistan etc all for themselves. To help Italy out financially will elicit cries of "Hey that's not fair, they are richer than us!" from many of the poorer EU states -- east Germany included.
Meanwhile in the Champs Élyséé Napoleon has a grand plan.

Enjoy.
 


Grin and don't bear it.

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Looks like the madness maybe ending. EU leaders are in talks to turn some non EU member European country into a migrant camp to stop them roaming around Europe. They're looking for a country that's not attractive to migrants or traffickers, seems to be one of the rougher Eastern block countries.

European leaders in talks to create migrant camp outside the EU | Daily Mail Online
Would have to be uncomfortable enough that they would conclude it's not worth the effort and go home or somewhere nearer home.
Only problem is that Spain now has a minority socialist government. They were lauded by the IT in an editorial today as their kind of administration. "A New Epoch". "Sanchez can be trusted to defend the EU's common interests". We now know what that means. It also probably means a new mass access route via Spain with government approval. What will Macron do in the circumstances? The biggest issue of our times is far from settled yet.
 

Lagertha

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Would have to be uncomfortable enough that they would conclude it's not worth the effort and go home or somewhere nearer home.
Only problem is that Spain now has a minority socialist government. They were lauded by the IT in an editorial today as their kind of administration. "A New Epoch". "Sanchez can be trusted to defend the EU's common interests". We now know what that means. It also probably means a new mass access route via Spain with government approval. What will Macron do in the circumstances? The biggest issue of our times is far from settled yet.
At least they've finally realised that shouting ya big racists ya, at people no longer works. It's all very well for them to describe countries who put their citizens interests before Brussels determination to make Europe blacker and more Muslim, as being far right or populist but more and more people are less and less willing to put up with seeing their countries colonised and they don't want to see veiled women and men in goat herding outfits everywhere or groups of African men roaming their towns and cities.
 

Barroso

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Would have to be uncomfortable enough that they would conclude it's not worth the effort and go home or somewhere nearer home.
Only problem is that Spain now has a minority socialist government. They were lauded by the IT in an editorial today as their kind of administration. "A New Epoch". "Sanchez can be trusted to defend the EU's common interests". We now know what that means. It also probably means a new mass access route via Spain with government approval. What will Macron do in the circumstances? The biggest issue of our times is far from settled yet.
It may have passed you by, but if so you are not alone.

Spain's socialist government is the third significant event in Spain in recent days.
The other two were, in first place, just the previous week came the reason for Sánchez's election - a court judgement in a major corruption case which put Rajoy's party on the cords.

In second place, the formation of a government in the Catalan autonomous region; much against his will and that of his party the previous prime minister, Rajoy, just last week permitted the formation of that regional government.

Now, many might see no connection between these three events, and not believe that they were in some way orchestrated, but I am not one of them.

Regarding the corruption case, Rajoy could have resigned rather than put up with the motion of no confidence, and thus forced elections. This would have been the reaction in the past, and the campaign would have been turned into an election about the unity of Spain. The question as to why he did not choose this route needs to be asked. Well played, this would have seen him return to government, while a poor campaign would have seen the Ciudadano's party returned reinforced; and while either option would have gone down well with the Spanish establishment (i.e. finance, industry and military), a stronger C's would have led to a worsening of the situation vis-a-vis Catalonia; and this is not a situation that Germany wants to see, as that could lead Spain back into a 1930s type situation with the effective destruction of democracy. This, along with Brexit and the situation in Italy, would have led to greatly increased instability throughout the EU and Germany would not countenance that at this juncture.

Therefore, I believe that Rajoy's arm was twisted, and he was "encouraged" to face the motion of no confidence, and allow the election of a Socialist government. I am encouraged in this belief by the fact that the PNV only days previously had pacted the budget with Rajoy and then quickly changed sides.

Whether I'm right or wrong, interesting times ahead in Spain. If I'm right, I would imagine this could lead to greatly enhanced autonomy in Catalonia in return for putting independence in the back seat, maybe via a constitutional amendment along Belgian lines.
 

Grin and don't bear it.

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Would have to be uncomfortable enough that they would conclude it's not worth the effort and go home or somewhere nearer home.
Only problem is that Spain now has a minority socialist government. They were lauded by the IT in an editorial today as their kind of administration. "A New Epoch". "Sanchez can be trusted to defend the EU's common interests". We now know what that means. It also probably means a new mass access route via Spain with government approval. What will Macron do in the circumstances? The biggest issue of our times is far from settled yet.
No wonder the IT approves. Sanchez has anounced a majority female cabinet. Strong suspicion this is not about talent or equality but cheap gesture politics. A stunt worthy of Trudeau, another Irish Times hero.
 

Grin and don't bear it.

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It may have passed you by, but if so you are not alone.

Spain's socialist government is the third significant event in Spain in recent days.
The other two were, in first place, just the previous week came the reason for Sánchez's election - a court judgement in a major corruption case which put Rajoy's party on the cords.

In second place, the formation of a government in the Catalan autonomous region; much against his will and that of his party the previous prime minister, Rajoy, just last week permitted the formation of that regional government.

Now, many might see no connection between these three events, and not believe that they were in some way orchestrated, but I am not one of them.

Regarding the corruption case, Rajoy could have resigned rather than put up with the motion of no confidence, and thus forced elections. This would have been the reaction in the past, and the campaign would have been turned into an election about the unity of Spain. The question as to why he did not choose this route needs to be asked. Well played, this would have seen him return to government, while a poor campaign would have seen the Ciudadano's party returned reinforced; and while either option would have gone down well with the Spanish establishment (i.e. finance, industry and military), a stronger C's would have led to a worsening of the situation vis-a-vis Catalonia; and this is not a situation that Germany wants to see, as that could lead Spain back into a 1930s type situation with the effective destruction of democracy. This, along with Brexit and the situation in Italy, would have led to greatly increased instability throughout the EU and Germany would not countenance that at this juncture.

Therefore, I believe that Rajoy's arm was twisted, and he was "encouraged" to face the motion of no confidence, and allow the election of a Socialist government. I am encouraged in this belief by the fact that the PNV only days previously had pacted the budget with Rajoy and then quickly changed sides.

Whether I'm right or wrong, interesting times ahead in Spain. If I'm right, I would imagine this could lead to greatly enhanced autonomy in Catalonia in return for putting independence in the back seat, maybe via a constitutional amendment along Belgian lines.
Your analysis makes perfect sense. It be revealing to see how EU friendly the new Government becomes as regards policy. Distraction from the real issues by emphasis on liberal gestures is a favourite.
A deal on taxes could be nearly the only thing left to offer the Catalans as their autonomy is already so comprehensive.
That would not go down well in most of Spain. The Catalans would probably settle for a compromise. It would be a better environment for cool heads to prevail. Also depends on how long the Government lasts.
 

cyberianpan

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France has nukes, also the NATO shield covers many EU countries -- Russia's military is overrated

The G7 meeting being Fri Jun8th & Sat the 9th, will be interesting

I suspect Shinzō Abe may stay...very quiet

Giuseppe Conte will be interesting to watch

Cyp
 

yosef shompeter

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"Be wary of predictions -- especially those that deal with the future.!
..... (Sam Warner) or was it Groucho Marx? Stopdoingstuff might know.

As we can't be sure of the future, what are the possible timelines we have to face when dealing with the hurdles ahead

Scenario 1: (The easy one)
1].Brexit goes ahead. Some sort of fudge cooked up on the border. Five years time a border poll and more fudge constructed that hopefully leads eventually towards a united Ireland, assuming the UK does not thrive in its new isolation.
2] Putin happy to keep on worrying the Ukraine with a low-level war, but no major expansions or adventures
3] Trump's coming trade war is bad news for everyone on all sides. He loses his re-election and the next admin tries to restore the old WTO rules.
4] Italian crisis gets slowly worse instead of better -- Just like it has been doing since joining the Euro. Things come to some sort of crisis but Brussels and Germany & the other rich EU states cobble together some sort of rescue package and things muddle along as the always did.

Scenario 2: (The rougher prediction)
1].It ends up as a "turbulent" Brexit -- closer to the "hard" rather than the "soft" Brexit.
Things go well for London and the south east but not for the rest of the UK.
Border controls are erected by both the Irish and the British to protect their economies meaning tough times ahead. Unionists, the great survivalists still rule those "dreary steeples of Tyrone and Fermanagh".

2].The collapse of the Ukraine enables Putin to put his "man" in Kiev's presidential palace to the alarm of Poland & the Baltics and Balkans. Irish army has a presence on the Eastern Front in the EU rapid deployment force.

3] Italy forces through an arrangement of restructuring its debts, leaving the Eurozone and re-introducing the Lira but nevertheless staying within the EU.

And Europe muddles on as before
 

yosef shompeter

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An obvious development on the demographic front would be that Islamic parties find their niches in the parliaments of Europe. Notably in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. This will be at the expense of the more established socialist and conservative parties. But no prizes for making this prediction.
 

yosef shompeter

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"Be wary of predictions -- especially those that deal with the future.!
..... (Sam Warner) or was it Groucho Marx? Stopdoingstuff might know.

As we can't be sure of the future, what are the possible timelines we have to face when dealing with the hurdles ahead

Scenario 1: (The easy one)
1].Brexit goes ahead. Some sort of fudge cooked up on the border. Five years time a border poll and more fudge constructed that hopefully leads eventually towards a united Ireland, assuming the UK does not thrive in its new isolation.
2] Putin happy to keep on worrying the Ukraine with a low-level war, but no major expansions or adventures
3] Trump's coming trade war is bad news for everyone on all sides. He loses his re-election and the next admin tries to restore the old WTO rules.
4] Italian crisis gets slowly worse instead of better -- Just like it has been doing since joining the Euro. Things come to some sort of crisis but Brussels and Germany & the other rich EU states cobble together some sort of rescue package and things muddle along as the always did.

Scenario 2: (The rougher prediction)
1].It ends up as a "turbulent" Brexit -- closer to the "hard" rather than the "soft" Brexit.
Things go well for London and the south east but not for the rest of the UK.
Border controls are erected by both the Irish and the British to protect their economies meaning tough times ahead. Unionists, the great survivalists still rule those "dreary steeples of Tyrone and Fermanagh".

2].The collapse of the Ukraine enables Putin to put his "man" in Kiev's presidential palace to the alarm of Poland & the Baltics and Balkans. Irish army has a presence on the Eastern Front in the EU rapid deployment force.

3] Italy forces through an arrangement of restructuring its debts, leaving the Eurozone and re-introducing the Lira but nevertheless staying within the EU.

And Europe muddles on as before
 

yosef shompeter

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Seems like the shape of Brexit is finally getting clearer contours... and that ain't saying much....
 

ScoobyDoo

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RasherHash

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Wales. It's empty, the weather is terrible and it could be a bargaining chip for giving the brits access to EU markets.

We just need to police Dublin port a bit better.
Better still dump er, place them in London, sure yid never find them there after a few hours.
 

Grin and don't bear it.

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How about Hampstead or Muswell Hill or Crouch End or Chalk Farm. The land of the luvvies and media types.They surely will welcome them with open arms as God forbid they would just be asked to follow up on their own advocacy. Could they turn out to be hippocrites by saying do as I say not as I do. We would find out soon enough.
 
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Mick Mac

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A colleague was working with a German
Today who said there is fury over the murder of a 14 girl by an Iraqi refugee who should have been deported. Heand his family absconded and surprise, surprise their documents turned out to be false.

Luckily he passed through the Kurdish area and was arrested.

But apparently the Germans are getting tired of this. I know a lot of people will say it's only a girl and Germans do the same but the impression I was left with was the Germans appear to be drawing a distinction and getting pissed off.

Merkel must live in fear of who dies next because that's how precarious her legacy is.

And this end all neo liberal careers.
 

Mick Mac

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How about Hampstead or Muswell Hill or Crouch End or Chalk Farm. The land of the luvvies and media types.They surely will welcome them with open arms as God forbid they would just be asked to follow up on their own advocacy. Could they turn out to be hippocrites by saying do as I say not as I do. We would find out soon enough.
They'll end up in those places for sure.

Cheaper cleaners and cheaper garden maintenance will win the hearts of the well to do.
 


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