Are Fianna Fail Chasing The Anti-Abortion Vote? If So Then What Are The Consequences?

TruthInTheNews

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The latest B&A poll has FF at 31%, an increase of 4%. This is a significant gain during a period in which there were no major policy announcements from the FF camp apart from decision to campaign for the retention of the Eight Amendment. FF are now the only party in Ireland in favour of retaining the Eight Amendment.

Will opposition to appeal be a vote getter for FF?
Just how strong is the anti-abortion vote?
Is every FF TD in favour of retaining the Eight?
Will those FF TDs in pro-abortion constituencies openly campaign against repeal of the Eighth?
Will FF assume the mantle of the party that represents socially conservative Ireland?
 


Sync

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They’ll pick up some disaffected FG/SF votes, not enough to matter. They’ll lose a few younger voters to FG/SF, not enough to matter.
 

Sync

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Are you are saying that the overall impact is neutral?
Long term, probably a net negative. Depends on how “anti” they are though. If they stick with campaigning and voting no but respecting the result, then probably neutral overall.

I get why they’d go No though, differentiates them from the other parties, appeals to older voters.
 

Marcos the black

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Older rural voters will be happy.
Younger urban voters won't be.
Which one is sustainable?
 

Sync

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parentheses

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Social liberalism may not confer much electoral advantage.

There was an FG councillor on radio a year ago. He reckoned FG had suffered a backlash for its strong support of same sex marriage
 

Emily Davison

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Social liberalism may not confer much electoral advantage.

There was an FG councillor on radio a year ago. He reckoned FG had suffered a backlash for its strong support of same sex marriage
One of the happiest days in the nation's history, you have got to be kidding.
 

flavirostris

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FF's recovery in the polls is concrete proof that abortion is not a priority for a large part of the electorate.

Just because the media keep talking about something and saying it is a priority does not mean that the public thinks that it's a priority.
 

parentheses

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FF's recovery in the polls is concrete proof that abortion is not a priority for a large part of the electorate.

Just because the media keep talking about something and saying it is a priority does not mean that the public thinks that it's a priority.
I think its fair to say FF rank and file are mostly anti abortion.

But Micheal Martin is a mealy mouthed weasel IMO. I actually think he will try to neuter any opposition to abortion within the party
 

flavirostris

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Social liberalism may not confer much electoral advantage.

There was an FG councillor on radio a year ago. He reckoned FG had suffered a backlash for its strong support of same sex marriage
That's probably true. They have also suffered from an abortion backlash since the POLDP bill. FF opposed this bill and many predicted they would suffer politically for it. The opposite has happened. They have recovered strongly.

Barry Walsh of YFG was heckled at the FG think-in in Cavan at the weekend when he asked 'Where is the demand for this referendum coming from'. People tried to shout him down by screaming 'people are dying'.. 'women are dying'.

Walsh's question was a good one. The demand is not coming from the public or the FG grassroots, so one has to conclude that FG are being led by the media.
 

blokesbloke

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FF's recovery in the polls is concrete proof that abortion is not a priority for a large part of the electorate.

Just because the media keep talking about something and saying it is a priority does not mean that the public thinks that it's a priority.
?

What reason do you think they have recovered if not the anti-abortion stance then?
 

flavirostris

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?

What reason do you think they have recovered if not the anti-abortion stance then?
What I'm saying is that the anti-abortion stance has not affected their recovery adversely and has probably helped them as they have gained some former FG anti-abortion voters.

A lot of people thought FF's stance on the abortion bill would damage them or pigeonhole them as an anti-abortion party but as you can see from the polls, they've continued to recover strongly. 31% in that last B&A poll.
 

GDPR

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?

What reason do you think they have recovered if not the anti-abortion stance then?
BB in Irish politics who would you support?

Anyway the older FG supporters tend to be socially conservative at least a bit but those under forty share a lot of common ideological ground with Antifa.
 

blokesbloke

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BB in Irish politics who would you support?

Anyway the older FG supporters tend to be socially conservative at least a bit but those under forty share a lot of common ideological ground with Antifa.
There's no party in Ireland which would really appeal to me to be honest ReF.
 

wombat

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Older rural voters will be happy.
Younger urban voters won't be.
Which one is sustainable?
The problem is that those who believe its a key issue will continue to believe its a key issue at election time, it will probably come into play for the last seat in a constituency.
 


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