Are the GOP better off losing in 2020 and having Biden as president?

Gnobe

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Historically in US politics the party occupying the white house tends to lose seats whilst in power.

- Bill Clinton came into office in 1993 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after a poor 1994 mid term election

- George W Bush came into office in 2001 with both a GOP senate and house, left office with the Democrats holding both the senate and the house after a disasterous 2006 mid term election

- Barack Obama came into office in 2009 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after TWO disasterous mid term elections in both 2010 and 2014, the GOP also gained a load of governors.

- Trump has already lost the house after a terrible 2018 midterms

Therefore I'm wondering if there are actually benefits if the GOP to lose the 2020 election long term. They've already secured a supreme court majority for a generation even if the democrats replace Ginsburg and Breyer (it will still be 5-4)

If they lose the white house, the Trump factor will be gone, democrats will be less motivated and immediately in 2021 the GOP can start winning special elections. If charismatic inspiring Obama or a young likeable Bill Clinton couldn't blunt massive losses, then I don't think an 80 year old dull president will either.

Alternatively if Trump wins in 2020, the GOP will go through another round of heavy losses, the democrats will accumulate even more power and by 2024 their majorities might start to resemble how they were in 2008.
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Their quickest route to having another shot at repealing Obamacare ironically will be to lose this election, rebuild and hold all three chambers for 2024. If they win it would actually prolong this opportunity much much longer, and when the democrats come back in, their majorities will be so big they can pass much more progressive minded legislation after two terms of Trump rather than just one.
 


Catahualpa

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Trump will beat Biden hands down

- but will probably lose in both houses.

THE CRASH will dominate everything

Curiously DJT favours a huge economic stimulus to kick start the Economy

- something that the Dems will have no problems with

- oh for sure that for forms sake they will scream 'MORE' but in reality they will eventually vote it through and claim 'Victory'

However the major fallout from this is that a military Showdown with Iran is off the table for the next couple of years anyway

- neither side will have the stomach for it....🤢
 

Hewson

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The best thing that could happen to the GOP would be its complete and total eradication as a political entity. What's left of its fundamentals can't be salvaged. It's morphed into a far-right, Neo-fascist, dysfunctional gang of ageing white men who hanker after an era that died out a couple of generations ago.

Americans call it The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight.

When it's been buried at a crossroads and a stake driven through its heart some genuine conservative with morals and a conscience may decide to go back to the drawing board and resurrect the Republican Party to become what it once was.

As things stand, death would be its lifesaver.
 

jmcc

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Low count poster pops up with provcative post. Must be one of those Russian troll bots that the HRC fans are always talking about. :)
 

Gnobe

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Low count poster pops up with provcative post. Must be one of those Russian troll bots that the HRC fans are always talking about. :)
What's provocative about it? The longer Trump is in power the more the democrats are going to gain at house, senate, gubernatorial and local state level, that's what happens under virtually all presidencies.

They've lost their shot to repeal and replace Obamacare, and will only do so once they regain the house and senate again, I don't see that happening until ironically the democrats spend sometime occupying the white house allowing them to regain those majorities.
 

Gnobe

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The best thing that could happen to the GOP would be its complete and total eradication as a political entity. What's left of its fundamentals can't be salvaged. It's morphed into a far-right, Neo-fascist, dysfunctional gang of ageing white men who hanker after an era that died out a couple of generations ago.

Americans call it The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight.

When it's been buried at a crossroads and a stake driven through its heart some genuine conservative with morals and a conscience may decide to go back to the drawing board and resurrect the Republican Party to become what it once was.

As things stand, death would be its lifesaver.
Parties don't die, they just change. The democratic party in the 1860s was a different entity to that of the 1960s and once again in third way pro business era of the 1990s.

The GOP changed somewhat from Eisenhower to Nixon to Reagan and now to Trump. The Republican party wont die, but inevitably will change, because it will just have to.
 

Kevin Parlon

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The best thing that could happen to the GOP would be its complete and total eradication as a political entity. What's left of its fundamentals can't be salvaged. It's morphed into a far-right, Neo-fascist, dysfunctional gang of ageing white men who hanker after an era that died out a couple of generations ago.

Americans call it The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight.

When it's been buried at a crossroads and a stake driven through its heart some genuine conservative with morals and a conscience may decide to go back to the drawing board and resurrect the Republican Party to become what it once was.

As things stand, death would be its lifesaver.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

19541.jpg
 

ruman

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Actually the Dems are better losing to Trump if they dont select Sanders.

Losing would be better than winning with Biden in the long term
 

NYCKY

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Historically in US politics the party occupying the white house tends to lose seats whilst in power.

- Bill Clinton came into office in 1993 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after a poor 1994 mid term election

- George W Bush came into office in 2001 with both a GOP senate and house, left office with the Democrats holding both the senate and the house after a disasterous 2006 mid term election

- Barack Obama came into office in 2009 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after TWO disasterous mid term elections in both 2010 and 2014, the GOP also gained a load of governors.

- Trump has already lost the house after a terrible 2018 midterms

Therefore I'm wondering if there are actually benefits if the GOP to lose the 2020 election long term. They've already secured a supreme court majority for a generation even if the democrats replace Ginsburg and Breyer (it will still be 5-4)

If they lose the white house, the Trump factor will be gone, democrats will be less motivated and immediately in 2021 the GOP can start winning special elections. If charismatic inspiring Obama or a young likeable Bill Clinton couldn't blunt massive losses, then I don't think an 80 year old dull president will either.

Alternatively if Trump wins in 2020, the GOP will go through another round of heavy losses, the democrats will accumulate even more power and by 2024 their majorities might start to resemble how they were in 2008. View attachment 23719

Their quickest route to having another shot at repealing Obamacare ironically will be to lose this election, rebuild and hold all three chambers for 2024. If they win it would actually prolong this opportunity much much longer, and when the democrats come back in, their majorities will be so big they can pass much more progressive minded legislation after two terms of Trump rather than just one.
Remember the old maxim, be careful what you wish for. There was a sense among some Republicans coming up to 2004, that it would be ok if W Bush lost because four years of Kerry was preferable than eight years Hillary in 08. Well Kerry did lose and a funny thing happened to Hillary on the way to 08.

Also, Trump was the preferred opponent of HRC in 2016. She got what she wanted, well let me rephrase, she got the opponent she wanted and a funny thing happened then too.

The Senate map is somewhat favorable to the Democrats in 2022, the number of swing states that are up and if Trump wins this year, he will likely lose the Senate in 2022. Should Biden win, those swing states get harder for a Democrat to pick up (or hold), and that's disregarding how the Senate shapes up in this November.

Additionally, there is a chance that whoever wins this year will replace both Ginsburg and Breyer and perhaps some others also.
 

Hewson

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Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

View attachment 23724
What has that got to do with what I posted?

You must know by now that the GOP is in terminal decline and it has nothing to do with how Trump (or Obama) is/was faring in the polls. The Republican Party is composed of ageing white boys who have hitched their wagon to the most divisive and inept president in US history. They had lost the college-educated vote, suburban women vote and the African American vote. Their transformation into the Party of Trump simply hastened the end, or the day when they needed to get back to basics.

Your chart also highlights another reality; Trump has never broken the 50% approval rating, despite a booming economy, full employment (though mostly crappy double-jobbing jobs at the lower end) and a stock market at record highs. (And more than three years after leaving office Obama has 110,000,000 followers on Twitter to Trump's 60 million, and double the number of Facebook followers).

Obama inherited an economic wreck and turned it around under intelligent and prudent guidance, giving Trump nothing to do but continue as Obama had done. He couldn't even do that though.

Trump is now where he was always going to end up; exposed as the mendacious, incompetent fraud he's been his whole life. And it's going to cost a lot of lives, Republicans included.
 
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Paddyc

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What's provocative about it? The longer Trump is in power the more the democrats are going to gain at house, senate, gubernatorial and local state level, that's what happens under virtually all presidencies.

They've lost their shot to repeal and replace Obamacare, and will only do so once they regain the house and senate again, I don't see that happening until ironically the democrats spend sometime occupying the white house allowing them to regain those majorities.
There’s a case going before the Supreme Court to revoke Obamacare but not before the November elections and the non-partisan Supreme Court obliged by agreeing not to hear the case until after the elections.

Republicans have never put a detailed proposal to replace Obamacare on the table and they have no intention of.

Remember Trump's promises to replace Obamacare with something bette4 and cheaper?
 

Kevin Parlon

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What has that got to do with what I posted?
Well it kind of rows against your claim that the GOP is in terminal decline. Because it isn't. Your take reminds me of the sneering incomprehension we saw in the Guardian and the Irish Times that met Trump's election (and Bush's) and the fawning adoration that met Obama's. Obama was the perfect statesman. All sober decency hard work and gravitas. But he was terribly weak in foreign policy. Trump is exactly what he looks like. A thin-skinned gobshite driven by the low impulses of self-glorification, boorishness and greed. But he gets something that remains beyond the comprehension of the George Monbiots and Tintin O'Tooles of the world. That's a topic for a different thread, but suffice it to say that I think you're misreading the situation.
 

Hewson

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Well it kind of rows against your claim that the GOP is in terminal decline. Because it isn't. Your take reminds me of the sneering incomprehension we saw in the Guardian and the Irish Times that met Trump's election (and Bush's) and the fawning adoration that met Obama's. Obama was the perfect statesman. All sober decency hard work and gravitas. But he was terribly weak in foreign policy. Trump is exactly what he looks like. A thin-skinned gobshite driven by the low impulses of self-glorification, boorishness and greed. But he gets something that remains beyond the comprehension of the George Monbiots and Tintin O'Tooles of the world. That's a topic for a different thread, but suffice it to say that I think you're misreading the situation.

Well, at least you recognise Trump for what he is. Congratulations.

As for what Trump 'gets', yes, he saw an opportunity to exploit the grievances that were left simmering post-2008, the resentments towards immigrants (job grabbers), and the illusion that the 1950s American Dream that many hankered after could be realised, and saw a way to use it all for his own benefit.

He was fortunate to find a GOP that is willing to whore itself, ethics and morals be damned, to take the White House. And they were all fortunate that the Democrats selected an unlikeable candidate.

She still won the election by 3,000,000 votes.

So, yes, the GOP is most certainly in terminal decline because it no longer has a moral compass. And despite what you might like to believe, standards of behaviour still matter to most American voters when they're in the polling booth, chewing on the end of their pencil and wondering where to put their mark.
 

owedtojoy

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Well it kind of rows against your claim that the GOP is in terminal decline. Because it isn't. Your take reminds me of the sneering incomprehension we saw in the Guardian and the Irish Times that met Trump's election (and Bush's) and the fawning adoration that met Obama's. Obama was the perfect statesman. All sober decency hard work and gravitas. But he was terribly weak in foreign policy. Trump is exactly what he looks like. A thin-skinned gobshite driven by the low impulses of self-glorification, boorishness and greed. But he gets something that remains beyond the comprehension of the George Monbiots and Tintin O'Tooles of the world. That's a topic for a different thread, but suffice it to say that I think you're misreading the situation.
I agree that Obama's foreign policy was not his strongest suit, but the contrast with his successor makes him look very good indeed. A high trust factor with Allies, in the process of a pivot to Asia, disengaging from craven support for whatever the Israeli right wanted, brought Iran to the conference table and wrung an international-supported nuclear deal with them.

His low point was the rise of ISIS, but he did not panic when he might have re-occupied Iraq. He cobbled together an alliance of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, Kurds, the Iraqi Army and US Special Forces that stopped ISIS in its tracks. Trump was able to utilise those forces. The "plan" that defeated ISIS was not Trump's but Obama's, though followed through by Trump.

I will also admit that Trump and Obama have a lot of baisc objectives in common - by the words of both men, they want to let the Middle East achieve some sort of peaceful balance, even if it is a Cold Peace, a frozen war. At least the US could then re-deploy its forces from the strategic overstretch that menaces them today.

But Obama was far more successful than Trump in progress towards that goal. Trump has gone back into the quagmire just to show that in the end his c*ck is longer than the black man's. He would have been better advised to leave well enough alone and move on.

You have to laugh at the anti-anti-Trumpers like Kevin. Trump is a bollix, sure, but do not dare attack him! He may be a bollix, but he is our bollix! Notice the hint that there is a wider agenda, that Trump is really playing multi-dimensional chess that will end in a checkmate that will amaze us all!

It was that propaganda shyte that got him elected - like the "secret plan to defeat ISIS" that never saw the light of day. The trouble with Trump is that everything is a re-election campaign, from North Korea to Afghanistan to Iran. Most of his great strokes have just been for the 24-hours news cycle that have not really achieved anything.
 

Kevin Parlon

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Well, at least you recognise Trump for what he is. Congratulations.

As for what Trump 'gets', yes, he saw an opportunity to exploit the grievances that were left simmering post-2008, the resentments towards immigrants (job grabbers), and the illusion that the 1950s American Dream that many hankered after could be realised, and saw a way to use it all for his own benefit.

He was fortunate to find a GOP that is willing to whore itself, ethics and morals be damned, to take the White House. And they were all fortunate that the Democrats selected an unlikeable candidate.

She still won the election by 3,000,000 votes.

So, yes, the GOP is most certainly in terminal decline because it no longer has a moral compass. And despite what you might like to believe, standards of behaviour still matter to most American voters when they're in the polling booth, chewing on the end of their pencil and wondering where to put their mark.
Again, I think your take on the GOP here is hyperbolic informed by enmity rather than an assessment of the facts at hand.
 

Kevin Parlon

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I agree that Obama's foreign policy was not his strongest suit, but the contrast with his successor makes him look very good indeed. A high trust factor with Allies, in the process of a pivot to Asia, disengaging from craven support for whatever the Israeli right wanted, brought Iran to the conference table and wrung an international-supported nuclear deal with them.

His low point was the rise of ISIS, but he did not panic when he might have re-occupied Iraq. He cobbled together an alliance of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, Kurds, the Iraqi Army and US Special Forces that stopped ISIS in its tracks. Trump was able to utilise those forces. The "plan" that defeated ISIS was not Trump's but Obama's, though followed through by Trump.

I will also admit that Trump and Obama have a lot of baisc objectives in common - by the words of both men, they want to let the Middle East achieve some sort of peaceful balance, even if it is a Cold Peace, a frozen war. At least the US could then re-deploy its forces from the strategic overstretch that menaces them today.

But Obama was far more successful than Trump in progress towards that goal. Trump has gone back into the quagmire just to show that in the end his c*ck is longer than the black man's. He would have been better advised to leave well enough alone and move on.

You have to laugh at the anti-anti-Trumpers like Kevin. Trump is a bollix, sure, but do not dare attack him! He may be a bollix, but he is our bollix! Notice the hint that there is a wider agenda, that Trump is really playing multi-dimensional chess that will end in a checkmate that will amaze us all!

It was that propaganda shyte that got him elected - like the "secret plan to defeat ISIS" that never saw the light of day. The trouble with Trump is that everything is a re-election campaign, from North Korea to Afghanistan to Iran. Most of his great strokes have just been for the 24-hours news cycle that have not really achieved anything.
I'm not "anti-anti-trump". I just am not the type to let visceral political bias pretend its analysis without pointing it out. How is he one of "mine"? I'm not a member of the GOP and wouldn't blindly support them regardless of who they put forward. Like the dems there are good and bad in each party. The "Dems GOOD, GOP Bad" is what passes for most Irish analysis of America. It's laughably inaccurate. There is something that's real though: Trump derangement syndrome. And you got it bad.
 

owedtojoy

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Historically in US politics the party occupying the white house tends to lose seats whilst in power.

- Bill Clinton came into office in 1993 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after a poor 1994 mid term election

- George W Bush came into office in 2001 with both a GOP senate and house, left office with the Democrats holding both the senate and the house after a disasterous 2006 mid term election

- Barack Obama came into office in 2009 with both a democratic senate and house, left office with the Republicans holding both the senate and the house after TWO disasterous mid term elections in both 2010 and 2014, the GOP also gained a load of governors.

- Trump has already lost the house after a terrible 2018 midterms

Therefore I'm wondering if there are actually benefits if the GOP to lose the 2020 election long term. They've already secured a supreme court majority for a generation even if the democrats replace Ginsburg and Breyer (it will still be 5-4)

If they lose the white house, the Trump factor will be gone, democrats will be less motivated and immediately in 2021 the GOP can start winning special elections. If charismatic inspiring Obama or a young likeable Bill Clinton couldn't blunt massive losses, then I don't think an 80 year old dull president will either.

Alternatively if Trump wins in 2020, the GOP will go through another round of heavy losses, the democrats will accumulate even more power and by 2024 their majorities might start to resemble how they were in 2008. View attachment 23719

Their quickest route to having another shot at repealing Obamacare ironically will be to lose this election, rebuild and hold all three chambers for 2024. If they win it would actually prolong this opportunity much much longer, and when the democrats come back in, their majorities will be so big they can pass much more progressive minded legislation after two terms of Trump rather than just one.
In this century there have been two Repubicans Administrations, both riddled with malfeasance and incomeptence, and one Democratic Administration that was able to hand over a steadily improving economy to its successor, unlike the chaos and doom it was handed in 2009.

What can you say about a party that in the space of 12 years has presided over the worst terrorist attack in American history (one that could have been prevented), a disastrous war that cost $$trillions (the most expensive failure in American history, costing up to 10,000 deaths), a pandemic that will kill a few tens of thousands of Americans (one that could have been blunted, maybe even prevented), and initiated two major Economic Recessions?

Who exactly is driving the clown car here? Don't tell me Repubicans are just "unlucky".

However, they did achieve two rounds of tax cuts for the rich. Wow.

The fact that the Republican party is still competitive is a tribute to the wealth of the people who are behind it, its propaganda machine, its ability to suppress votes and steal elections, its ability to ruthlessly exploit the wish of Democrats to "do the right thing" to its own advantage and the way it will always put party interest before public good e.g. successful blocking Obama's judicial appointments, then packing the courts with right-wing ideologues when the opportunities arose.
 

Kevin Parlon

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In this century there have been two Repubicans Administrations, both riddled with malfeasance and incomeptence, and one Democratic Administration that was able to hand over a steadily improving economy to its successor, unlike the chaos and doom it was handed in 2009.

What can you say about a party that in the space of 12 years has presided over the worst terrorist attack in American history (one that could have been prevented), a disastrous war that cost $$trillions (the most expensive failure in American history, costing up to 10,000 deaths), a pandemic that will kill a few tens of thousands of Americans (one that could have been blunted, maybe even prevented), and initiated two major Economic Recessions?

Who exactly is driving the clown car here?

But they did achieve two rounds of tax cuts for the rich. Wow.

The fact that the Republican party is still competitive is a tribute to the wealth of the people who are behind it, its propaganda machine, its ability to suppress votes and steal elections, its ability to ruthlessly exploit the wish of Democrats to "do the right thing" to its own advantage and the way it will always put party interest before public good.
I think I know the answer to this one. Americans are thick and too many of them have the wrong political opinions. Did I get it right?
 

Hewson

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I think I know the answer to this one. Americans are thick and too many of them have the wrong political opinions. Did I get it right?

Actually, you're closer to the truth than you might be comfortable with. A conversation with most average Americans on foreign affairs will give you an insight into just how intellectually lazy they are.

Just replace 'wrong' with 'misguided'.
 


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