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Arise Galway East..


CM

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Nov 10, 2003
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3
Arise Galway East...

Hello Galway East, any views on the local elections next June?
Will there be a reshuffle in our 4 Dail seats next time around?
 


Dera

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Aug 7, 2003
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CM, don't know much but the independent paddy mc hugh is quite. Are you from there - what is your analysis.
 

seanad

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Mar 20, 2004
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I would say FG will regain their second seat if they run Connaughton/Burke again.McHugh will lose seat and FF retain 2.
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
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This is a slow constituency to move away from FF+FG. There is no real sign of the Greens, Labour, PDs looking to ply their trade here, or at least not in a concerted way.

Sinn Féin may be the ones who will crack this nut. My guess is a SF seat in the town councils of Béal Átha na Slua, Baile Locha Riach and possibly Tuaim. Sinn Féin may take CoCo seats in BÁnaS (5 seater) and BLR (7 seater) areas too.
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
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This is a slow constituency to move away from FF+FG. There is no real sign of the Greens, Labour, PDs looking to ply their trade here, or at least not in a concerted way.

Sinn Féin may be the ones who will crack this nut. My guess is a SF seat in the town councils of Béal Átha na Slua, Baile Locha Riach and possibly Tuaim. Sinn Féin may take CoCo seats in BÁnaS (5 seater) and BLR (7 seater) areas too.
 

seanad

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In 1997 Labour ran a promising candidate Colm Keaveny who I thought would be a future TD. Has he left politics ?
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
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I think he might be a councillor in Town Council in Tuaim but didn't run in 2002. He might still be about but he seems quiet.
 

Robbie

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PDs will probably contest here next time out. The last time they had to concentrate their efforts on Galway West and if they think that seat is more or less safe next time out then they will context both Galway areas
 

CM

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Nov 10, 2003
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Agreed. With an existing seat in Galway West, they will do some work on Galway East next time around. Currently three candidates for Galway East in LE's, Pat Gilmore and Seamus Quinn in Tuam and Ciaran Cannon in Loughrea.
 

zimbabwe

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Aug 26, 2003
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This is a slow constituency to move away from FF+FG. There is no real sign of the Greens, Labour, PDs looking to ply their trade here, or at least not in a concerted way.

Sinn Féin may be the ones who will crack this nut. My guess is a SF seat in the town councils of Béal Átha na Slua, Baile Locha Riach and possibly Tuaim. Sinn Féin may take CoCo seats in BÁnaS (5 seater) and BLR (7 seater) areas too.
Banas??

BLR?? do you realise that that is the international regisration for Belarus?? I didnt realise that SF were conquering eastern Europe as well??
 

redalert

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Dec 12, 2003
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Keaveny is currently a full time official with SIPTU and is running in Tuam for a council seat. He ran in the last European election but crashed and burned, so Hugh Baxter from Roscommon is going to be their sacrificial lamb this time around.

As for Galway East, Labour have absolutely no base at all. Coming from just outside Ballinasloe, I'm surprised Labour didn't try to concentrate on building there considering the indusrtrial importance it ONCE had. However, a fellow SP member did tell me he once canvassed for a Labour candidate in the town before Militant were expelled.

Sinn Fein, on the other hand, will oppurtunistically try to capitalise on the anger that exists in the town at the moment given the closure of industries such as AT Cross and Square D in recent years. The Sinn Fein branch in B'sloe though are the idiotic, rebel singing, prod hating, celtic jersey wearing, bar stool republican type, with the honourable exception of Dermot Connolly. They have f*^# all politics. It should be interesting to see what HQ write up for them seeing as I doubt half of them could write their own name.
 

seanad

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Mar 20, 2004
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Keaveny is currently a full time official with SIPTU and is running in Tuam for a council seat. He ran in the last European election but crashed and burned, so Hugh Baxter from Roscommon is going to be their sacrificial lamb this time around.
Gerard Gibbons was the Labour candidate in Connacht/Ulster last time, not Colm Keaveney
 

stlukes

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May 21, 2004
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Watch out for the Sinn Fein candidate in Loughrea. A very bright guy he could capitalise on the internal rifts within the established parties.
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
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Any opinions on who'll run for Dáil from Galway East next time? What seats are safe and what seats are up for grabs?

I assume there's a safe FG seat and a safe FF seat. On top of that there's probably a good chance of a second FF seat. Is Paddy McHugh's seat safe? Is there room for a Labour, Sinn Féin or a Green seat?

Who will FF's candidates be?
 

gaeler

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Dec 11, 2003
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Up to 1997, the PD's always polled very well here. In 1997, when Lab' Keaveney ran for the first time he polled very well, over 3000 first preferences, gives him a solid base to build on, although him not running in 2002 would mean he's a bit of fighting to do to build on his support.

Would think that Connaughton for FG will be stepping down before next time, he's well into his sixties and his daughter had just been elected to the council, so the successor is there.

Does Kitt have any chance of edginig out Treacy for the second FF seat here next time??
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
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That's true. The PDs may well run here too. I can't see them taking a seat as well as 2 FF seats. (not to say that I see 2 FF seats as guaranteed by the way)

Kitt will likely run again, and Treacy's support is slowly ebbing away, but nor is Joe Callanan's seat a cert either. While it's likely that there'll be 1FG and maybe 2 FF, it's tough to say who's certain to be elected for those parties.

For Labour to take a seat, Keaveney would need to take Paddy McHugh's vote, and generally play the 'Tuam-needs-a-TD' card as McHugh did. Will people opt for that with McHugh failing to deliver for Tuaim as he has? A big weakness for Labour is that they are not organised. How many more members are there as well as Keaveney? They will depend on their candidate getting lots of media and that they'll also depend on a state-wide swing like in 1992. Can they energise people like that?

I'm not sure that old man Connaghton is ready to hang up the boots though. No doubt he's looking to keep it in the family, but are 2-3 years enough to guarantee a safe passover? The last thing he'll want is for Ulick Burke get revenge for the vote-poaching of 2002.
 

Decko

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Jun 17, 2004
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This is a tough one to call. The last 2 seats will be close between FF, Fg and McHugh.

With a modest increase if FG can repeat there north/south of the Gal-Dub railway line vote split they will take 2 seats. Keaveny running will help them (I'm told he will he did well in the locals)-- he transfered strongly in 97.

McHugh has a big battle and will probably lose out to Kitt. The second FF seat will be very close, I'd call it Callanan to pip Treacy.
 

dmb

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Mar 16, 2004
Messages
13
Not really following things much these days, but were people surprised that it was Michael Fahy is being investigated over the planning corruption?
I had guessed Michael Regan, also from Loughrea.
At a guess, Fahy is probably only one of many.
 

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