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As regards Democratic convention.

cropbeye

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I wonder is it time to consider the scenario of the Democratic party at convention going for a compromise candidate.

It is fairly clear Sanders simply will never have enough delegates for outright victory.

It is becoming more clear that in a straight fight between Clinton and Trump that Hillary will loose.

Yet Trump is not unstoppable.
 


firefly123

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Lose.
It's fúcking lose.
Why do so many people have an inability to spell the word lose?
Ahem... Sorry.

It would make a joke of the whole process if they did that though I bet Joe Biden is kicking himself now! He'd be a shoo-in if he'd stood!
 

drummed

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Great thread. You make a strong argument poster.

I'd respond only its impossible counter your grasp of the subject or dispute the sheer methodical excellence of your conclusions.
 

GabhaDubh

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The Republican Convention had all the earmarks of been a cluster, lo and behold it is the Democratic candidates that have not resolve their differences.
 

Dame_Enda

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Only a mass defection of the super delegates can save Sanders
 

cropbeye

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People don't love Hillary in any significant numbers. Middle of the road voters do not necessarily vote for moderates. Provided with two colorful candidates they will vote for the one who seems the most likable . The hard core for Hillary are mostly well off cliques of liberals in particular locations reassuring each other of their brilliance. The hard core for Trump are far more numerous include more ordinary people and thus create more energy.
 

Wagmore

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Lose.
It's fúcking lose.
Why do so many people have an inability to spell the word lose?
Ahem... Sorry.

It would make a joke of the whole process if they did that though I bet Joe Biden is kicking himself now! He'd be a shoo-in if he'd stood!
Biden could yet have a part to play. If my,admittedly, House of Cards analysis comes to pass, Biden could yet have to wrestle with his conscience. All based on Obama's fundamental slyness and his desire to see his legacy fulfilled with a safe pair of hands. Clinton clearly isn't that-they both basically hate each other.Biden is a different case-he's close to Obama and his decision not to run could have been the ultimate ruse. Why run and get bogged down in a gruelling race for the nomination when you know it could be handed on a plate to you when Hillary is finally seen to be a lame duck nominee before convention. An FBI indictment is the final piece of that jigsaw. Know it's far fetched but, personally, am not ruling it out just yet. Either is Paddy Power-Biden's odds just tightened from 33/1 to 25/1 on the back, it would seem, media reports that claim he thinks he would "have been the best president." Plot might be thickening.
 

GDPR

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You can't have a contested convention with only two candidates!

The way a convention becomes contested is when no candidate receives more than 50% of the total votes. That's is impossible with two candidates. One (Clinton most likely) will receive over 50% and get the nomination. It doesnt matter if they get to that number by pledged or super delegates as long as they have 2383 , they win.


Of course, if Hillary has to step down because more information emerges about her emails - it doesnt have to be a formal indictment - then either Sanders wins the nomination by default or the Dems run round like headless chickens drafting a Stop Bernie candidate. Popcorn.
 

cropbeye

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If enough evidence comes out about Clinton the party may

have to come up with a new plan and act well in advance of November . She will then be allowed to slip into oblivion.
 

Wagmore

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If enough evidence comes out about Clinton the party may

have to come up with a new plan and act well in advance of November . She will then be allowed to slip into oblivion.
Clinton won't do oblivion willingly-power crazy psychopaths rarely do.Reckon it will have to be an indictment and vultures have started to circle in that regard. She'll have the delegates otherwise.
 

cropbeye

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Interesting to imagine though who might be a compromise candidate.

Might be worth a poll?
 

edwin

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Presumably they should be addressing her male voter problem at the convention. Her ratings among men are abysmal and last time I checked men have votes too although you wouldn't necessarily know that based on media coverage.
 

GDPR

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Presumably they should be addressing her male voter problem at the convention. Her ratings among men are abysmal and last time I checked men have votes too although you wouldn't necessarily know that based on media coverage.
According to The Guardian article, Hillary is doing no worse than male candidates in previous POTUS elections:
Clinton is doing no worse with men overall than past Democratic candidates. Barack Obama won 55% of women and 45% of men in 2012; Al Gore won 54% of women and 42% of men in 2000; Bill Clinton’s numbers were 54% women and 43% men in 1996. Economic issues drive the gender gap, according to Walsh, and not the sex of the candidate.
Women say Donald Trump is creepy
 

GDPR

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The same article reports polls in key swing states showing Trump with 13-21 point leads. Trump is regarded as having a 'woman' problem. Clearly Clinton has a 'man' problem.
But the article also says Clinton is doing no worse with men overall than past Democratic candidates
 

cropbeye

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No Clinton has a credibility problem.

A very good compromise candidate might be Al Gore.
 

cropbeye

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They should probably get an injunction to cancel the Democrat convention
 

Dame_Enda

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Growing split between Sanders and Clinton over Israel. Sanders has put pro Palestinian activists Cornell West and James Zogby on the Platform Committee. A poll mentioned in the article says 40% of Liberal Democrats sympathise more with Palestine to 33% with Israel.
 

maxflinn

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Growing split between Sanders and Clinton over Israel. Sanders has put pro Palestinian activists Cornell West and James Zogby on the Platform Committee. A poll mentioned in the article says 40% of Liberal Democrats sympathise more with Palestine to 33% with Israel.
Amen!
 

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