At last, some numbers on unification

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No


The Esri hath spoken from on high...


Dr Seamus McGuinness confirmed that the British subvention to Northern Ireland is £9.2 billion a year (€10 billion), but that would not necessarily be the cost to the Republic’s taxpayers in the event of a united Ireland.

Dr McGuinness told the Ireland’s Future meeting tonight that when the “non-identifiable expenditures” are stripped out such as the North’s contribution to the UK debt, defence budget and pension liabilities, the figures falls to between €4.9 billion and €8.6 billion per annum depending on how negotiations go with the British Government.
....
He acknowledged this was a lot of money but had to be seen in the context of a rise in spending by the Irish State between 2017 and 2018 from €77.4 billion to €82 billion – an increase of €4.6 billion “which is roughly the lower estimate of the subvention and that was achieved without even running a Government deficit”.

Dr McGuinness outlined the poor economic performance of the North in recent years and the chronic low productivity.
The North is the region with the highest proportion of people with low education qualifications in the UK. Some 35 per cent of children leave school with the lowest level of educational attainment in comparison with 11 per cent in the South.

The Northern economy grew by 7 per cent between 2000 and 2014; the Republic’s grew by 30 per cent in the same period

He said 21 per cent of people in the North are waiting for an elective care procedure compared to 8 per cent in England.
In the North, 94,000 people are waiting for more than a year for a consultant compared to just 3,364 in England though England has 30 times the population of Northern Ireland.

“Both health services have their problems, but you can no longer hold the NHS in the North as the gold standard or something that will be a huge loss,” he said.
 


McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No
The pension side of things will have to be done with a lump sum, and then converted to euro. All these sorts of deals are done by civil servants, and civil servant pensions go to the top of the list.

When the real worry is 35% of kids leaving school young, which explains a lot.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
40,561
The pension side of things will have to be done with a lump sum, and then converted to euro. All these sorts of deals are done by civil servants, and civil servant pensions go to the top of the list.

When the real worry is 35% of kids leaving school young, which explains a lot.

When people say partition has failed (been doing so for yonks) what I have highlighted above is just only one of the reasons why Mac.
 

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No
When people say partition has failed (been doing so for yonks) what I have highlighted above is just only one of the reasons why Mac.
Yes, and so the Q is why the parents don't keep them in school for longer?
 

Estragon

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2007
Messages
1,554
Interesting, but economics will have very little to do with if reunification goes through or not.
 

EnglishObserver

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 30, 2010
Messages
3,002
These figures reinforce what all but the most moronic Irish Nationalists believe (Americans who don't live in Ireland and never have etc) that Irish unity under the current circumstances will not occur. Were it to occur under the current circumstances it would be a disaster almost beyond ompare.

There seems to be three groups in The Irish Republic at present regarding this issue:

(i) True believers in Irish unity who would demand Irish unity under any and all circumstances regardless of cost and would accept Ireland burning to the ground providing it was united when incinerated. These types will do anything to achieve their goal - lieing about everything, distorting reality, even advocating violence (in some cases). I would suggest this group comprises about 10% of The Irish Republic.

(ii) The Paddys, The Top O The Day boys. These have been brain washed from birth and accept Irish Unity as some sort of add on to Irish Catholicism (which some still cling onto). They tend to believe all sorts of things and accept Irish Unity as a 'good thing'. Under the wrong circumstances, their support for Irish Unity would collapse - too late though. I would suggest this group comprises about 70% of The Irish Republic.

(iiii) The realists. These tend to include most politicions, senior civil servants, senior police and senior army, as well as the educated and sophisticated elements within Irish society. They are well aware of the horrific risks of Irish unity, especially one that did not involve majority Unionist consent. They will do all they can to prepare the ground in order to avoid anything that would severely damage The Irish State, it's economy and it's security - especially at the point of a border poll. I would suggest this group comprises 20% of The Irish Republic.
 

Estragon

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2007
Messages
1,554
Is there a bigger tool than Stephen Collins. Another drivelling column in the Irish Times today tilting against Irish unity.

Such a small pathetic limited man.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
40,561
Is there a bigger tool than Stephen Collins. Another drivelling column in the Irish Times today tilting against Irish unity.

Such a small pathetic limited man.


It's AH's like Collins who encourage such garbage as posted by mange in #9 sir.
 

Mickeymac

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 30, 2010
Messages
40,561
nah - ol geezer.
your ol Orange Card isn't trumps anymore.
that day is long gone.
Get over it !

Indeed mangaire, the dying embers of a hatefire which the Brits could have prevented decades ago from ever starting.
 

former wesleyan

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 29, 2009
Messages
25,615
Funny how " demographic.changes " is viewed as rightwing Replacement Theory everywhere other thsn Ireland.
 

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No
All part of the failed system obviously.

It's the parents' choice, or usually is in this part of europe.

Maybe they all go on to high-paying jobs aged 15, but you don't hear about that.
 

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No
Interesting, but economics will have very little to do with if reunification goes through or not.

OK, but we'll hear all about it if services run down any more.

People are people, so if we want reunification to work we have to stop thinking about orange and green numpties, and the past. It has to be forward looking.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
54,957
What about reducing the subsidy through privatisations? The NI public sector is bloated because the UK has subsidised it like East Germany with PS jobs. This reduces the labour supply for the private sector, which deters FDI and hold back growth. NI exports around €6 bn a year, compared to around €168 bn from the Republic.
 

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
7,239
Twitter
No
Maybe as the NI NHS is so badly run, it can be flogged off to the yanks?

A new business school in every county as well. Link to irish american supporters.
 

McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
18,306
(iiii) The realists. These tend to include most politicions, senior civil servants, senior police and senior army, as well as the educated and sophisticated elements within Irish society. They are well aware of the horrific risks of Irish unity, especially one that did not involve majority Unionist consent. They will do all they can to prepare the ground in order to avoid anything that would severely damage The Irish State, it's economy and it's security - especially at the point of a border poll. I would suggest this group comprises 20% of The Irish Republic.

Do you think their should be a united Ireland on the baisis of a majority nationalist vote?
 

rainmaker

Administrator
Joined
Mar 26, 2012
Messages
23,206
(i) True believers in Irish unity who would demand Irish unity under any and all circumstances regardless of cost and would accept Ireland burning to the ground providing it was united when incinerated. These types will do anything to achieve their goal - lieing about everything, distorting reality, even advocating violence (in some cases). I would suggest this group comprises about 10% of The Irish Republic.
They sound very much like the kind of people that campaigned & won the Brexit referendum...
 


New Threads

Most Replies

Top