Backstop Compromise or No Deal

Cobbler91

Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
41
In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?

I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. A few could be done such as allowing Dublin and Stormont to manage borders and checks rather than Westminster and Brussels, a time limit with the assumption that the backstop will end on a certain date (2030 at latest) and that both the UK and EU have to agree to it continuing. At the end of the day, all parties have to be able to sell it as a victory and the UK has not and never will be able to sell it. Intransigence from Brussels and Dublin in the next few weeks will look like No Deal is the expectation and with the UK highly likely to get a new PM who stated we will leave regardless, that does look like where we are heading.

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?

Also, forget about another referendum on EU membership, it isn't happening and even if it did, I suspect Leave would probably win by a bigger margin. There is as much chance of Leo Varadkar asking HM Queen Elizabeth II to rejoin the UK as that happening (that is to say no chance to be 100% clear).
 


raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
8,040
You're getting a bit ahead of yourself.

The UK is hopelessly divided on Brexit, and it is perfectly obvious to the rest of the world. The signs are that the plan to leave without a deal will be sabotaged by MPs.
Furthermore, unless there is a massive shock in store for the Conservative Party tomorrow, you will have the biggest fool in European politics running your country on Wednesday.
The EU are not going to feel in the least bit threatened by Boris, and may choose not to take him at all seriously. He doesn't deserve the courtesy anyway considering that he is notoriously untrustworthy and incompetent.
 

bactrian

Well-known member
Joined
May 11, 2004
Messages
1,238
In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?

I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. A few could be done such as allowing Dublin and Stormont to manage borders and checks rather than Westminster and Brussels, a time limit with the assumption that the backstop will end on a certain date (2030 at latest) and that both the UK and EU have to agree to it continuing. At the end of the day, all parties have to be able to sell it as a victory and the UK has not and never will be able to sell it. Intransigence from Brussels and Dublin in the next few weeks will look like No Deal is the expectation and with the UK highly likely to get a new PM who stated we will leave regardless, that does look like where we are heading.

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?

Also, forget about another referendum on EU membership, it isn't happening and even if it did, I suspect Leave would probably win by a bigger margin. There is as much chance of Leo Varadkar asking HM Queen Elizabeth II to rejoin the UK as that happening (that is to say no chance to be 100% clear).
There are a few things right in the above post , but , far more errors.


1. "In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. "

Correct.

" With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?"

Everything I have read says that there is no mood to change the WA,(backstop included)

"I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. "

At the present time Dublin has accepted that London is probably going to crash out of Europe(and is unhappy), Brussels is of the same opinion (but can live with it), Paris and Berlin are bordering on not really caring.


In the UK Employers, industry Bodies, Unions, Civil Service have all pointed out the dangers and the projected job losses of Brexit(especially a No Deal Brexit). Both of the contenders(each wealthy and unaffected by the costs of Brexit) have declared indifference to the cost of Brexit.
 

JacquesHughes

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 16, 2013
Messages
1,158
DREAM OF BREXIT IS FADING- LET IT WITHER
No Brexit has a higher probability than No Deal.


Next week , it is expected a bye-election reduces the Johnson Tory majority from 3 to 2. Half his cabinet are rebelling pre-emptively. His bullish personality will favour an election- that's why the Tory activists will choose him; they think he's electoral gold.

Johnson's hopes of governing hang by the thread that he will get a new agreement with the DUP - proven to the most unreliable partners in government that could be imagined.
- having imposed Brexit upon the British population ( through funding shenanigans) Nigel Dodds then says 'we're better off in the EU after all'. Nigel!, where's your commitment? You're supposed to be one of the idealogues driving this in the interests of a resurgent British nation!
- Theresa May spent two years negotiating a bespoke agreement to please them, tailored to their economy-they chucked it out. They lacked the bottle to actually have a Brexit.

When Johnson's election farce ( cf Kim Jung Un) is announced tomorrow, sterling will rise in value because Brexit is in big trouble; unless it get's a clear parliamentary mandate, as well as a feeble referendum mandate.

The next farce is, Johnson will be asking the EU and the Rep of Ireland to help him get Brexit. NO- neither the EU or the Rep of Ireland WANT Brexit.
'Go, get a clear mandate, Boris.'
 

Cobbler91

Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
41
DREAM OF BREXIT IS FADING- LET IT WITHER
No Brexit has a higher probability than No Deal.


Next week , it is expected a bye-election reduces the Johnson Tory majority from 3 to 2. Half his cabinet are rebelling pre-emptively. His bullish personality will favour an election- that's why the Tory activists will choose him; they think he's electoral gold.

Johnson's hopes of governing hang by the thread that he will get a new agreement with the DUP - proven to the most unreliable partners in government that could be imagined.
- having imposed Brexit upon the British population ( through funding shenanigans) Nigel Dodds then says 'we're better off in the EU after all'. Nigel!, where's your commitment? You're supposed to be one of the idealogues driving this in the interests of a resurgent British nation!
- Theresa May spent two years negotiating a bespoke agreement to please them, tailored to their economy-they chucked it out. They lacked the bottle to actually have a Brexit.

When Johnson's election farce ( cf Kim Jung Un) is announced tomorrow, sterling will rise in value because Brexit is in big trouble; unless it get's a clear parliamentary mandate, as well as a feeble referendum mandate.

The next farce is, Johnson will be asking the EU and the Rep of Ireland to help him get Brexit. NO- neither the EU or the Rep of Ireland WANT Brexit.
'Go, get a clear mandate, Boris.'
Yeah, Theresa May "negotiated" sod all and lied the entire time. The "agreement" really is something I personally would only sign up to if I had lost a war quite catastrophically. Plenty of MP's feel that isn't far off the mark.

I think another election is likely, probably in autumn if Parliament doesn't leave any options, although No Deal is still the default. In any case, the Backstop is unacceptable. It cannot be right that the UK (5th largest economy) have its trade policy dictated to. That's why it hasn't passed and in its current form, is dead.

He'll give you guys a chance, but if not, the UK has no choice but to double down.
 

Cobbler91

Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
41
You're getting a bit ahead of yourself.

The UK is hopelessly divided on Brexit, and it is perfectly obvious to the rest of the world. The signs are that the plan to leave without a deal will be sabotaged by MPs.
Furthermore, unless there is a massive shock in store for the Conservative Party tomorrow, you will have the biggest fool in European politics running your country on Wednesday.
The EU are not going to feel in the least bit threatened by Boris, and may choose not to take him at all seriously. He doesn't deserve the courtesy anyway considering that he is notoriously untrustworthy and incompetent.
It's most a few Remoaners who are abusive and active on Twitter and generally live in Hampstead and Islington. I won't argue with you that Brexit has been sabotaged all the way by our treacherous MP's and Civil Servants who appear to despise the country they supposedly serve. Sinn Fein would probably represent us better.

We shall see. I don't entirely trust Johnson but I think he will either lead the UK into a golden age outside the EU or be an absolute disaster with us staying in.

Like it or lump it, they will have to deal with him. Must be said, I can't imagine anyone likes dealing with Varadkar with his very punchable face (nothing against Ireland, but he looks like a smug git. A bit like Trudeau).
 

Cobbler91

Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
41
DREAM OF BREXIT IS FADING- LET IT WITHER
No Brexit has a higher probability than No Deal.


Next week , it is expected a bye-election reduces the Johnson Tory majority from 3 to 2. Half his cabinet are rebelling pre-emptively. His bullish personality will favour an election- that's why the Tory activists will choose him; they think he's electoral gold.

Johnson's hopes of governing hang by the thread that he will get a new agreement with the DUP - proven to the most unreliable partners in government that could be imagined.
- having imposed Brexit upon the British population ( through funding shenanigans) Nigel Dodds then says 'we're better off in the EU after all'. Nigel!, where's your commitment? You're supposed to be one of the idealogues driving this in the interests of a resurgent British nation!
- Theresa May spent two years negotiating a bespoke agreement to please them, tailored to their economy-they chucked it out. They lacked the bottle to actually have a Brexit.

When Johnson's election farce ( cf Kim Jung Un) is announced tomorrow, sterling will rise in value because Brexit is in big trouble; unless it get's a clear parliamentary mandate, as well as a feeble referendum mandate.

The next farce is, Johnson will be asking the EU and the Rep of Ireland to help him get Brexit. NO- neither the EU or the Rep of Ireland WANT Brexit.
'Go, get a clear mandate, Boris.'
Nope, if Brexit is cancelled any MP who represents anywhere other than a Remain stronghold risks their dignity being lost everytime they enter their constituency.

Gives the Conservative Party a chance to get a clear slate. The ones who are rebelling are no great loss and have a very overrated opinion of themselves.

In regards, the DUP, they really aren't popular over here but that's more down to their fundamentalist views more than Brexit. As to Northern Ireland, that is the only thing holding up a good deal, and given the likely inevitability, the UK may decide to kill three birds with one stone by holding a referendum on NI joining ROI which might get rid of the DUP and make a good Brexit deal that much more likely.
 

Dearghoul

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 8, 2013
Messages
8,644
Puncheable faces, Jonson does it for me.

On Brexit: It will be a disaster because:

It was betrayed by remoaners at the outset.

It was too pure, too beautiful, too delicate a thing to fly in the murky skies of reality.

Project fear.

It was a heap of shite from the get go.

What ever you're having yourself.
 

cytex

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
3,480
In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?

I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. A few could be done such as allowing Dublin and Stormont to manage borders and checks rather than Westminster and Brussels, a time limit with the assumption that the backstop will end on a certain date (2030 at latest) and that both the UK and EU have to agree to it continuing. At the end of the day, all parties have to be able to sell it as a victory and the UK has not and never will be able to sell it. Intransigence from Brussels and Dublin in the next few weeks will look like No Deal is the expectation and with the UK highly likely to get a new PM who stated we will leave regardless, that does look like where we are heading.

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?

Also, forget about another referendum on EU membership, it isn't happening and even if it did, I suspect Leave would probably win by a bigger margin. There is as much chance of Leo Varadkar asking HM Queen Elizabeth II to rejoin the UK as that happening (that is to say no chance to be 100% clear).
I don't think Britian is quite getting the Mood of Europe . They are no longer desperate to avoid a no Deal some countries want it . All are now planning for it as it is the most likely outcome. And as for a time limit on the backstop this is the same for Ireland as a no deal and is a non starter . As are all the other wishy washy "solutions " the UK have come up with. Such as "Alternative Arrangements" or a "Technology border" as it does not solve the issue of a hard border . If Britain can't come up with a soloution or sign up to the backstop then it IS going to be no deal .

Honestly I really don't think a compromise can be reached without an Election and throwing the DUP under the bus the torys just don't have the numbers to get anything through and no Deal is the default .
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
47,318
In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?

I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. A few could be done such as allowing Dublin and Stormont to manage borders and checks rather than Westminster and Brussels, a time limit with the assumption that the backstop will end on a certain date (2030 at latest) and that both the UK and EU have to agree to it continuing. At the end of the day, all parties have to be able to sell it as a victory and the UK has not and never will be able to sell it. Intransigence from Brussels and Dublin in the next few weeks will look like No Deal is the expectation and with the UK highly likely to get a new PM who stated we will leave regardless, that does look like where we are heading.

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?

Also, forget about another referendum on EU membership, it isn't happening and even if it did, I suspect Leave would probably win by a bigger margin. There is as much chance of Leo Varadkar asking HM Queen Elizabeth II to rejoin the UK as that happening (that is to say no chance to be 100% clear).
Johnson is the one being intransigent, as from a position of considering a time-limited backstop, he is now ruling out the backstop totally, while offering no alternative ...... except perhaps a 15-minute standup comedian routine when he charms EU leaders over to his viewpoint.

It is Johnson who wants to break the deal, so let him propose an alternative. Ireland has only to keep its nerve.
 

McTell

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 16, 2012
Messages
6,415
Twitter
No
OP

//

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?
//

Imagine there is free trade until the EU-UK trade agreement is signed - and no need for a backstop.

That will suit everyone, but for Leo to pull that lever some extra something will have to be put on the table to tempt him. That's real life politics.

So what can bojo offer us?
 

bactrian

Well-known member
Joined
May 11, 2004
Messages
1,238
I

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?
The UK has made the fundamental mistake of confusing "important" with "essential".

Undoubtedly the membership of the UK in the EU is recognised as being very important. We in Europe, and very especially Ireland, do not want the UK to leave. The UK is very important but is not essential. We might not want them to go , but, if required , we can continue without the UK.

If you look at the history of the Brexit negotiations you are left with an impression of the EU negotiating on its own behalf and then doing the heavy lifting on behalf of the UK. The UK was in such disarray that someone had to protect them.

Anyone who listened to Boris's bombast and bluster can only be unimpressed. As Leo Varadker has said any "suggestion by new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that a new Brexit deal can be negotiated was “totally not in the real world”.

 

Pyewacket

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 24, 2019
Messages
2,458
LOL, Johnson has got a magic thingie wotsit, I mean you just tap in your pin code and the Border disappears dammit, girl that red wine will come out of the sofa, anyway you can always get a new one. :)
 

shiel

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
17,368
In recent weeks with both prospective Conservative Party leaders being staunchly opposed to the Backstop in its current form, the Withdrawal Agreement being rejected three times by the House of Commons for a variety of reasons, but the Backstop being the main one. With various EU leaders such as Merkel (for however long she remain Chancellor) suggesting it can be changed, are we about to see it amended?

I think everyone in Dublin, Brussels, Paris, Berlin etc needs to recognise that the Backstop will not pass the UK Parliament in its current form and amendments need to be made. A few could be done such as allowing Dublin and Stormont to manage borders and checks rather than Westminster and Brussels, a time limit with the assumption that the backstop will end on a certain date (2030 at latest) and that both the UK and EU have to agree to it continuing. At the end of the day, all parties have to be able to sell it as a victory and the UK has not and never will be able to sell it. Intransigence from Brussels and Dublin in the next few weeks will look like No Deal is the expectation and with the UK highly likely to get a new PM who stated we will leave regardless, that does look like where we are heading.

So, will it be back on the table? Is everyone desperate enough to avoid a No Deal scenario to bring it back? Can a compromise be reached, and if so, what?

Also, forget about another referendum on EU membership, it isn't happening and even if it did, I suspect Leave would probably win by a bigger margin. There is as much chance of Leo Varadkar asking HM Queen Elizabeth II to rejoin the UK as that happening (that is to say no chance to be 100% clear).
The war has been re-declared by Johnson.

Paddy has to grovel and get rid of the Good Friday Agreement or else.

That is asking Paddy to virtually dump the EU and rejoin the UK and is pathetic.

That says it all about the motivation of people who support the Brexiteers.

Brexiteers have nothing but racist contempt for fellow citizens especially for Paddy.

Brexiteers are saying they should dump the GFA - an international agreement, signed by the UK, lodged with the UN and passed by massive majority on the island of Ireland in the scrap heap.

How pathetic is that in relation to international relations and in relation to any kind of respect for fellow human beings.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,193
OP




Imagine there is free trade until the EU-UK trade agreement is signed - and no need for a backstop.

That will suit everyone, but for Leo to pull that lever some extra something will have to be put on the table to tempt him. That's real life politics.

So what can bojo offer us?
You mean free trade between Ireland and the UK, or between the EU and the UK, until an EU/UK trade agreement is signed?
 

Pyewacket

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 24, 2019
Messages
2,458
WTF are people on here doing, drooling over clown Johnson, who is nothing but a symptom of the collapse of the British political consensus, and slagging off Varadkar, who is Ireland's Taoiseach and standing up for Ireland's interests?

Shoneens, the lot of you. :)
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top