Baghdad teeters on the cusp of falling...why?

cyberianpan

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Saddam Hussein was indubitably a crazed baddie How Saddam Hussein Modeled a Paramilitary Unit After Darth Vader | Flashback | OZY

But I've never agreed with Bush's invasion...but once that foulup was made...I backed the surge https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_troop_surge_of_2007

Now Iraq is on the brink again
Blog: At least 4 dead in Baghdad riots as country teeters on the brink of revolution
Protesters once again penetrated the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, occupying buildings and battling police and soldiers.
...
How did Iraq get to this juncture? No doubt, the poor leadership of the current government had a lot to do with it. But let's not forget that the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton celebrated bringing American troops home far earlier than most Iraqis wanted.
Why?
What to do about it?

Cyp
 


GDPR

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[video=youtube;dMHDBL7CNA4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMHDBL7CNA4[/video]
 

redneck

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Probably some form of partition is the only way. Partition between the Sunnis and Shias. And possibly a new Christian statlet would be a good result in my opinion.
 
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Probably some form of partition is the only way. Partition between the Sunnis and Shias. And possibly a new Christian statlet would be a good result in my opinion.
OR get the ************************ out, let them run their own country, stop the pillage of resources and hope the relationship between sunni's and shia's normalizes like it had before the invasion. Can't see why it would not.
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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The why is the easier part, and can be summed up in a sentence: vicious Sunni sectarian dictator toppled, majority Shia dominate politics to the exclusion of the Sunni minority, the constituent tribes of which, sans a conventional army they trust, are unable to resist Islamic State occupation, while the Iranian backed sectarian militias leading the fightback on behalf of Baghdad can never win the 'hearts and minds' of the Sunni population.

The what to do about it is the part that might take decades to figure out. I suspect that if Iraq is to remain as a political entity, it would only be as a loosely bound federation of self-governing states - one Sunni, one Shia and one Kurdish.
 

P.ieire

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Seems like everything is going to plan, if you want to reverse the situation you would need different planners.

"Stratfor suggests that the division of Iraq, as described above, will reap big benefits for both Israel and Jordan. Iraq, arguably Israel’s most determined enemy, would be eliminated. The end of Saddam’s regime would also deprive the Palestinians of much financial and other assistance, which could reduce the effectiveness of their attacks against the Jewish state.

King Abdullah of Jordan would vastly expand his role and prominence in the region with a joint Hashemite state, becoming the second-most important US ally in the region after Israel. In addition to his huge territorial gains, he also would get a chunk of Iraqi oil. And Palestinians, who currently make up half of Jordan’s population, would become a minority in the new state, with much less potential to stir up trouble."

U.S. 2002 Pre-invasion Plan to Divide Iraq Into Three Separate States | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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OR get the ************************ out, let them run their own country, stop the pillage of resources and hope the relationship between sunni's and shia's normalizes like it had before the invasion. Can't see why it would not.
Who are you suggesting should get the *** out? The US is only there in a fairly superficial advisory role, the real strings are pulled in Tehran.

As for normalising the relations between Sunni and Shia, there was nothing normal about relations between Sunni and Shia before the fall of the dictatorship, it was a straightforwardly repressive relationship: the Shia majority were ruthlessly kept down with extreme violence. The Shia population attempted all out revolt in 1991, and would have succeeded in toppling Saddam if they had received even minimal assistance from the US, which had encouraged the uprising through its rhetoric.
 

between the bridges

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Nuke the feckers...
 

Clanrickard

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OR get the ************************ out, let them run their own country, stop the pillage of resources and hope the relationship between sunni's and shia's normalizes like it had before the invasion. Can't see why it would not.
Get who out? There are no foreign armies in Iraq.
 

lostexpectation

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Get who out? There are no foreign armies in Iraq.
Number of US Troops in Iraq More Than 4,000, Exceeds Previous Claims | Military.com

Officially, there are now 3,650 U.S. troops fighting ISIS in Iraq. The real number of Americans involved in the war is closer to 6,000. Daily Beast
in reality, there are already about 4,450 U.S. troops in Iraq, plus another nearly 7,000 contractors supporting the American government’s operations. That includes almost 1,100 U.S. citizens working as military contractors, according to the latest Defense Department statistics.
 
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Socratus O' Pericles

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The US cannot make deals with "radicals", it always favours the staus quo and corruption . Cf how they handed over China to the Communists though well placed to make an accommodation with them, they pumped billions into the nationalist government at a time when a billion was something to see and lost everything. Same in Indo China, same now in the middle east................can't make a deal with anyone who doesn't support "democracy".


In a word its corruption.
 

Seanie Lemass

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The US cannot make deals with "radicals", it always favours the staus quo and corruption . Cf how they handed over China to the Communists though well placed to make an accommodation with them, they pumped billions into the nationalist government at a time when a billion was something to see and lost everything. Same in Indo China, same now in the middle east................can't make a deal with anyone who doesn't support "democracy".


In a word its corruption.
Had it not been for the US, the Nazis would have won, and subsequently the Stalinists would have won.

The mistake they made in Iraq was not going in, but leaving too early.

Is it messy? Of course it is. But it is preferable to surrender.
 

Catalpast

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Probably some form of partition is the only way. Partition between the Sunnis and Shias. And possibly a new Christian statlet would be a good result in my opinion.
The bulk of the Christian population has fled....:?

- and who could blame them:confused:
 

Catalpast

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Number of US Troops in Iraq More Than 4,000, Exceeds Previous Claims | Military.com

Officially, there are now 3,650 U.S. troops fighting ISIS in Iraq. The real number of Americans involved in the war is closer to 6,000. Daily Beast
There also an unknown number of non US 'contractors' there in paramilitary roles - I don't know how many but when you check it out it seems to be tens of thousands

The Iranians have military men there as advisors

- in the North the Turks have a small uniformed military presence - God knows what it is 'off the record'
 

Belfastdan

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If Iraq as a state collapses the Kurds will move quickly to form heir own state.
The danger of that is it is very likely that the Turks will intervene to prevent that from happening with dire implications for the whole region.
 

ireallyshouldknowbetter

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Number of US Troops in Iraq More Than 4,000, Exceeds Previous Claims | Military.com

Officially, there are now 3,650 U.S. troops fighting ISIS in Iraq. The real number of Americans involved in the war is closer to 6,000. Daily Beast
A large number of these are advising and coordinating airstrikes with Kurdish forces fighting against ISIS. If they were not there, the Iraqi Kurdish areas might well have been overrun, and as we saw with the Yazidi population, ISIS will carry out wholesale ethnic cleansing and enslave vast numbers of civilians if they gain access to minority population centres.
 

Catalpast

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If Iraq as a state collapses the Kurds will move quickly to form heir own state.
The danger of that is it is very likely that the Turks will intervene to prevent that from happening with dire implications for the whole region.
The Kurds in Turkey are back on the revolt again recently

- that does not auger well for its future stability
 


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