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Bank shres up on NAMA deal for banks


mmrebel

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Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
758
Looks like the the markets like the deal the banks are getting.


AIB at 2.63 up from 2.50

Bank of Ireland now at 2.87 from low of 2.60
 

Raketemensch

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Apr 11, 2009
Messages
3,128
I would sell now while they are at their peak, before everybody else does!
 

goosebump

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May 23, 2008
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Sep 10, 2008
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FF played a blinder.

They streatched out the dail time with the help of JOD do that when the Bill was read out the Markets would have already closed.

Corruption runs deep in FF.
 

bananarepublic.ie

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Joined
Feb 15, 2009
Messages
237
Even first time i saw developers come out and expressing their opinion, after shying away from the media from almost year. On drive time RTE 1, cant remember the name.
 

irish_bob

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Jul 9, 2008
Messages
7,588
i paid 95k towards a loan i had on a foreign property today , wish id put it in shares , could have made some quick and easy money , would have helped make up for all the money i lost on my appartment in budapest , early bird catches the worm and all that
 

montaillou

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Jun 12, 2009
Messages
18
i paid 95k towards a loan i had on a foreign property today , wish id put it in shares , could have made some quick and easy money , would have helped make up for all the money i lost on my appartment in budapest , early bird catches the worm and all that
NAMA doesn't exist to help you out of your spot of bother.

Now, if you'd developed ten estates of foreign holiday homes that didn't sell and were a property developer in good standing with Frankeen Fahey (FF), then NAMA could be your saviour.

Might be a bit leaden-handed and obvious in the exposition, but it was an open goal and I had to kick the ball.
 

irish_bob

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Jul 9, 2008
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NAMA doesn't exist to help you out of your spot of bother.

Now, if you'd developed ten estates of foreign holiday homes that didn't sell and were a property developer in good standing with Frankeen Fahey (FF), then NAMA could be your saviour.

Might be a bit leaden-handed and obvious in the exposition, but it was an open goal and I had to kick the ball.
i should have stated in my post that i was a prize chimp to ever buy property in eastern europe , i was half joking when i said i could have invested in some sure fire winner shares , could have meant going to my bank manager with all his money instead of 60% of it but i suppose the quick buck always comes at a price , you might get sucked in and develop a gambling addiction , buying shares is afterall just another form of gambling , its a casino
 

DCon

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May 5, 2009
Messages
5,901
AIB up 25%

BOI up 15%
 

athlonedub

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Jan 16, 2006
Messages
431
Here is the NCB view of life this morning.....

NAMA; Major step along the road to recovery, upgrade to BUY
Ø As had been well leaked in advance, the average NAMA haircut amounted to 30% of the book value of loans to be transferred. The Agency will take €77bn of loans in exchange for €54bn of NAMA bonds (land and development portfolios constitute €49bn of the total with €28bn of investment loans).
Ø We did not get an estimate of the haircuts on a bank by bank basis, but the quantum of loans per institution to be transferred was disclosed (AIB - €24bn, BoI - €16bn, Anglo - €28bn, Irish Nationwide - €8bn, EBS - €1bn). We estimate that AIB and BoI will incur haircuts of 28% and 23% respectively (page 2).
Ø Capital requirements: The Government appears to be giving the banks some headroom in order to recapitalise. This reduces the immediate threat of shareholder dilution through forced equity raisings.
Ø Bank Restructuring: Although no firm proposals were outlined, the Government has reiterated its focus on bank restructuring in sector as a necessary requirement for State support. Plans to extend Government insurance over longer term debt issuances are well progressed.
Ø AIB: We expect AIB to take a haircut of 28% on €24bn of its NAMA loans (page x). The bank released a statement indicating that it plans to raise up to €2bn of capital over the next twelve to eighteen months. Potential sources include (i) equity markets, (ii) strategic investors and (iii) asset/business sales.
Ø We forecast that it will require €2.3bn to keep its Equity Tier 1 ratio above 5% at June 2010 (first reporting date following complete loan transfer) and to trough at 4.4% at December 2010. A current disposal of M&T would generate c. €500m of capital, leaving a shortfall of €1.7bn to be raised. A disposal of BZWBK would plug c. €1.2bn of this gap (in capital terms), but given its earning potential we are more in favour of an equity raising.
Ø BoI: We forecast BoI to incur a haircut of 23% on its €16bn transfer to NAMA. Based on our estimates it will report a 4.8% Equity tier 1 ratio following its full NAMA transfer at September 2010 (trough at 4.5% at March 2011). It is quite plausible that it raises equity by year end in order to redeem an element of the Government preference shares, thereby reducing the attaching warrants.
Ø Valuation: Factoring in an equity raise of €1.7bn (at 40% discount), AIB is trading on 0.9x our trough 2010 adjusted diluted TNAV (page 7) and 5.4x our 2012 normalised earnings (on a TERP basis). Our recommendation on AIB moves to BUY with a price target of €3.80. In a similar vein, and factoring in an equity raising of €1bn for BoI, it is on 1.1x our bottom-of-the-cycle adjusted diluted TNAV and 6x 2012 recovery earnings (again on a TERP basis, assuming a rights discount of 40% - page 4). There is now a good prospect that BoI can raise private capital to redeem an element of the State’s preference shares prior to year-end, and thus significantly reduce political and dilution risk. Our recommendation on BoI moves to BUY with a price target of €4.00.
 

DCon

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May 5, 2009
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5,901
From Bloomberg:


Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency will buy loans with a combined book value of 40 billion euros from the two banks, as the government seeks to purge them of souring assets, reignite lending and kickstart the economy. Losses on the loans will “likely” leave some banks short of capital, Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said yesterday. Bank of Ireland Plc will publish a statement later today.

“The banks will probably be relatively under-capitalized post-NAMA,” said Sebastian Orsi, an analyst at Merrion Stockbrokers in Dublin. “I suspect both will need capital.”

Allied Irish said the discount on the loans it will sell to NAMA will be less than the 30 percent being applied across the industry by Lenihan. In all, Ireland plans to spend 54 billion euros on real estate loans which had a book value of 77 billion euros, Lenihan said.

The price NAMA is paying will determine how much lenders must write down assets on their balance sheets. Lenihan said the government is committed to providing banks with “an appropriate level of capital.” He told reporters in Dublin that he couldn’t rule out the state taking a majority stake in the banks.
In what may be the biggest financial gamble in 87 years as a sovereign state, the government will spend about 28 percent of the country’s gross domestic product for 2008 to become the owner of loans for property developments that are plunging in value. The price of development land may fall as much as 76 percent from peak levels, estimates Davy, Ireland’s biggest securities firm.
Allied Irish Banks to Raise Capital as Bad Loans Exit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
 

Cael

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Jun 19, 2006
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13,343
Bank shareholders will be breaking open the champagne this morning as massive wealth was transfered from the taxpayer to them:

"Shares in AIB raced 26% higher to stand at €3.31 by 8.30am in Dublin, while Bank of Ireland shares added 14% to stand at €3.27."

If you bought 10,000 euro worth of AIB shares last christmas, they would be worth 130,000 euro now. Thats what you call money for nothing - thats what you call living in the BaNama republic.
 

constitutionus

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Feb 19, 2007
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23,330
i TOLD ya this would happen.

the market thinks the taxpayer got it in the neck and are buying in enmass.

as i type

AIB 3.32

BOI 3.21

and theyre NOT the highs !

if its any consolation its only temporary IMO, once the realisation that the next step is 70% ownership of one ala RBS and majority of the other the price will implode.

but for now sit back and watch the maddness. :)
 

goosebump

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May 23, 2008
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4,953
If you bought 10,000 euro worth of AIB shares last christmas, they would be worth 130,000 euro now. Thats what you call money for nothing - thats what you call living in the BaNama republic.
How about if you bought 10k worth of bank shares the Xmas before that?
 

Digout

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Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
1,396
When we buy the 70% - 80% of the shares we have to buy these shares? So further waste of our money?
 
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