BANKING - What WILL Happen...

ZANU-FF

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As things stand the Irish Banks require recapitalisation in EXCESS of their current market capitalisations.

Investors will not recapitalise said banks as it would be cheaper to PURCHASE them first for a fraction of what needs to be invested and that changes the Investment strategy

If, for example, UAE investors were considering such an investment in an Irish Bank (which they would never) they would quickly see the value in a new start up. Such a start up would be in a position to cherry pick the best clients and would further undermine the Irish Banks.

(Barclays are paying 19% !!!!! to middle east investors That will surely drag them down)

So, Chinese or Oil nations are now in a Prime position to become the Worlds Bankers and if they see the opportunity that I see they could wipe every Irish Bank out.

There is of course one drawback to this evolution, we, the Irish Taxpayer still have to cover the cost for the septic tiger banks...... Ireland Inc. heading for bankruptcy
 


adrem

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May 27, 2004
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I disagree with the value of a startup - no name awareness, no distribution, no access to client - much better to buy all of these on the cheap (as they are currently available)

I agree no way anyone out there in UAE land wants to buy an Irish bank at the moment

The biggest problem for the Irish market (share wise) is the utter lack of natural buyers of securities. Domestic Pension/Investment funds, investors etc have no interest (or money) and in an international context there is no reason to hold Irish securities.
 

ZANU-FF

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startup

Adrem,

a start up is simple

*lots of empty real estate - Landlords cutting cheap deals

*The win for a start up is the kill for existing - The startup backed by actual assets and more prudent selection and lending has lower operating costs.
All existing banks that got caught up in property CANNOT compete, write downs and other incurred costs leave them at the post.

Think it out, run the scenario and remember you heard it from me first.
 

Big Bobo

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Nationalisation of the banking sector is the only long-term solution. Profiteers out to make a quick buck should not be in control of Ireland's finacial sector.
 
A

Asi-Irish

I think we're headed back to the good old days of the Credit Union.
 

adrem

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Adrem,

a start up is simple

*lots of empty real estate - Landlords cutting cheap deals

*The win for a start up is the kill for existing - The startup backed by actual assets and more prudent selection and lending has lower operating costs.
All existing banks that got caught up in property CANNOT compete, write downs and other incurred costs leave them at the post.

Think it out, run the scenario and remember you heard it from me first.

Who will deposit funds with them? Without depositors your bright shiny new bank will not be able to lend . . . unless it adopts the Northern Rock approach of borrow and lend on which is what led to the sh1t hitting the fan in the first place

A new bank is not interested in empty real estate - a start up property developer might be but even he will note that the real estate is empty for a very good reason

I don't see the start up bank approach working out - I will however remember that I heard it from you first.
 

feargach

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I disagree with the value of a startup - no name awareness, no distribution, no access to client - much better to buy all of these on the cheap (as they are currently available)
Yes, you´re right. You probably don´t remember an obscure bank called rabo which miserably failed to attract any Irish depositors because of the lack of name awareness and local branches.
 

COMMIE

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We have to admit the free market enterprise does not work. The banks bank need to be regulated by law and the regulater need legal power to oversee and enforce right.
Unless you think whats happing is fine.
 

Aindriu

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Yes, you´re right. You probably don´t remember an obscure bank called rabo which miserably failed to attract any Irish depositors because of the lack of name awareness and local branches.
Rabo is an ONLINE bank! I use it.
 

COMMIE

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Who owns Rabo?
 

locke

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Yes, you´re right. You probably don´t remember an obscure bank called rabo which miserably failed to attract any Irish depositors because of the lack of name awareness and local branches.
And Rabo is still building up its deposits to a level where it can become a serious player in the lending market.

A few things I don't get in this thread

- The obsession some people have with nationalising the banks. If anything, the best model we've seen emerge in this is the mutual model (interestingly enough Rabo is a muual bank).

- The assumption that the Middle-East has loads of money to give away. They are on the verge of their own property collapse.
 

Colada

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- The assumption that the Middle-East has loads of money to give away. They are on the verge of their own property collapse.
I recently posted a story from the WSJ relating the imminent collapse of the MEGA property bubble in Dubai.
It was deleted.....! :eek:
 

Dillinger

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I recently posted a story from the WSJ relating the imminent collapse of the MEGA property bubble in Dubai.
It was deleted.....! :eek:

Yes, Dubai has been on the cards for a while, I mentioned it before the summer to a guy who has investments there, he laughed at me.
 

_soma_

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Feb 27, 2008
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Yes, Dubai has been on the cards for a while, I mentioned it before the summer to a guy who has investments there, he laughed at me.
I'd be a big-time sceptic of the international property craze, but does anyone know what the yield is like for investors in Dubai..?

The reason I ask is that I was blown-away by the apparent cost of rentals there e.g. €2K/mth for a 1 bedroom apartment. Have the capital+interest repayments of those properties divorced from the (albeit very high) rents like they have (almost) everywhere else..?

Also, Inflation in Dubai is supposed to be quite severe AFAIK.
 

ZANU-FF

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Apr 4, 2008
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dubai

yes Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the most unsustainable developments (along with Las Vegas) on the face of the planet however lets not digress

they have oil and we need it (yes, we know their reserves are diminishing..) however we have to pay for it either with euros or gold or whatever has tangible value

my point was that a new well capitalised bank could wipe the existing banks, shall we use a comparison from another industry?

Aviation and Ryanair, Ryanair is exceptionally well capitalised, is the Industry leader in negotiating purchases, its overheads are the lowest within its industry, it earns more in interest payments than most airlines make in profit (if they do) so what effect has this had within the aviation industry?

competitors working by the old rules have either hit the wall or have had to recreate themselves - the same will happen in banking..... too many overheads, too many bad debts, need I continue? its coming down the train tracks it is clear as day
 

Phil Maker

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As things stand the Irish Banks require recapitalisation in EXCESS of their current market capitalisations.

Investors will not recapitalise said banks as it would be cheaper to PURCHASE them first for a fraction of what needs to be invested and that changes the Investment strategy

If, for example, UAE investors were considering such an investment in an Irish Bank (which they would never) they would quickly see the value in a new start up. Such a start up would be in a position to cherry pick the best clients and would further undermine the Irish Banks.

(Barclays are paying 19% !!!!! to middle east investors That will surely drag them down)

So, Chinese or Oil nations are now in a Prime position to become the Worlds Bankers and if they see the opportunity that I see they could wipe every Irish Bank out.

There is of course one drawback to this evolution, we, the Irish Taxpayer still have to cover the cost for the septic tiger banks...... Ireland Inc. heading for bankruptcy
'So, Chinese.... are now in a Prime position to become the Worlds Bankers'

4 years later....

China to Get ‘More Involved’ in Europe Rescue, Hold Euros - Businessweek


Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China said it will “get more involved” in supporting Europe and sustain its holdings of euro assets, spurring gains in the currency and Asian stocks on optimism the debt crisis will be overcome.
“China will always adhere to the principle of holding assets of EU sovereign debt,” People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in Beijing today. “We would participate in resolving the euro debt crisis,” he said, echoing comments by Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday.
 


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