Barry Andrews says no to Dublin South Switch - Sunday Times

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It's been discussed hugely here on Politics.ie over the past two weeks especially that Barry Andrews was rumored to be moving fro Dun Laoghaire to Dublin South in the next General Election.

That may make sense for a few reasons. Dun Laoghaire is being reduced from five seats to four seats, and it's widely considered very unlikely that FF would hold two seats (Minister Mary Hanafin bring the other sitting FF TD). Given Tom Kitt is standing down (or is he?), it means Dublin South won't have a sitting TD contesting for a seat.

The candidates for Dun Laoghaire are:

Barry Andrews FF
Mary Hanafin FF
Sean Barrett FG (and another FGer to be selected)
Eamon Gilmore Lab
Ivana Bacik Lab
Ciaran Cuffe Green
Richard Boyd Barrett - ULA

Politics.ie revealed that Bacik was to be Gilmore's running mate last week.

Andrews has told Stephen O'Brien and Justine McCarthy is today's Sunday Times that he'd not changing constituencies and will contest to keep his seat. Hanafin has also made it clear that she has no plans to switch constituency.

Does anyone think FF running two candidates in Dun Laoghaire might split the vote and cause neither to get elected?
 


jacko

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it makes more sense for Hanafin to move - the Andrews base Blackrock, Newtownpark Ave, Monkstown is still in Dun Laoghaire.

On the other hand hanafin did well west of the bray road (foxrock village etc) and it has been moved into Dublin South
 

civilserpant

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it makes more sense for Hanafin to move - the Andrews base Blackrock, Newtownpark Ave, Monkstown is still in Dun Laoghaire.

On the other hand hanafin did well west of the bray road (foxrock village etc) and it has been moved into Dublin South
Would agree, but Hanafin more likely to hold the Dl seat than Andrews methinks... its his loss.
 

tiny tim

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It's been discussed hugely here on Politics.ie over the past two weeks especially that Barry Andrews was rumored to be moving fro Dun Laoghaire to Dublin South in the next General Election.

That may make sense for a few reasons. Dun Laoghaire is being reduced from five seats to four seats, and it's widely considered very unlikely that FF would hold two seats (Minister Mary Hanafin bring the other sitting FF TD). Given Tom Kitt is standing down (or is he?), it means Dublin South won't have a sitting TD contesting for a seat.

The candidates for Dun Laoghaire are:

Barry Andrews FF
Mary Hanafin FF
Eamon Gilmore Lab
Ivana Bacik Lab
Ciaran Cuffe Green
Richard Boyd Barrett - ULA

Politics.ie revealed that Bacik was to be Gilmore's running mate last week.

Andrews has told Stephen O'Brien and Justine McCarthy is today's Sunday Times that he'd not changing constituencies and will contest to keep his seat. Hanafin has also made it clear that she has no plans to switch constituency.

Does anyone think FF running two candidates in Dun Laoghaire might split the vote and cause neither to get elected?
Of course FG will also be running a realistic ticket in Dun Laoghaire and have a strong liklehood of winning at least 2 seats.Convention due on 14th December to select the team.
 

flavirostris

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I thought Hanafin was the one rumoured to be moving to DS. Andrews has after all deep roots in the DL constituency while she dosen't.
Did he come under pressure to move to "save" the senior Minister
 

Keith-M

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Agreed, there aren't two seats for FF in DL and by running two they could lose both, but it makes more sense for Hanafin to move and for what it's worth I think Kitt may be standing.
 

Fides

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it makes more sense for Hanafin to move - the Andrews base Blackrock, Newtownpark Ave, Monkstown is still in Dun Laoghaire.

On the other hand hanafin did well west of the bray road (foxrock village etc) and it has been moved into Dublin South
I was very upset when I was disenfranchised and moved out of Dun laoghaire Rathdown. I was always hoping we would declare UDI! Now I'm stuck in Dublin South. As a non FFer and knowing a few others Mary Hanafin seems to have more respect than Barry Andrews. Didn't even know who was from where and I'm not convinved it has as much relevance as it seems to have in other constituencies.
 

Delarivier

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Does anyone know if Maria Corrigan is likely to be standing for FF in Dublin South?
 

wombat

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it makes more sense for Hanafin to move - the Andrews base Blackrock, Newtownpark Ave, Monkstown is still in Dun Laoghaire.

On the other hand hanafin did well west of the bray road (foxrock village etc) and it has been moved into Dublin South
That's what I heard too, I have always thought Andrews would hold his seat in DL
 

hammer

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Bugsy Malone isn`t wanted in Dublin South.

He is a brutal TD. Has he organised the orderly handover of HSE files on the 200 children that died in care yet :(
 

drjimryan2

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interesting times alright. Of course the whole 'ball game' in terms of ff has changed in the last 3 weeks and this must be considered.

In reality(no matter what you're told) its back to basics for ff in the next election. National strategy has been abandoned in favor of a constituency by constituency model, made all the more difficult by a serious lack of local organisation, on the ground.

Its every man for himself really and this andrews story says it all. Without some joined thinking and fast the dl/south area could go from 4 traditionally to zero, with no new credible faces surfacing anytime soon.

Personally, i feel we should run andrews alone in DL along with a local 'sweeper' to get one. South is more complicated really, Hanafin brennan and la hart would seem geographically balanced with the hope of one. Kitt, I believe will indeed retire. Corrigan is not seen anymore as the solution to our problems in holding seats and will be overlooked (imo)

La hart, I like and feel in the long run might run in south west ( in the absence of anyone credible) although people in the area frequently dismiss
this option.
In reality, focus in ff has moved to ensuring seats in 2014 and beyond.

A seat for andrews in dl, whoever 'rises like cream' in south a 'write off' in south west where we'll loose 2 through loss or retirement, with a role for lenihan as a 'rebuilding tsar' in ho. I see at best one in south central with one loss/retirement but can also see none. In central, bertie will retire and we'll get none, we'll loose both in north and are 50/50 to hold one in nw and nc. ne is lost (imo). Mid west depends enrtirely on harneys decision. Andrews will be the real dublin star and will comfortably hold south east.......

So....Dublin looks like this:

DL 1ff
DS 1ff
DSW 0 ff
DMW 0ff
DSE 1 ff
DSC 0 ff
DN 0 ff
DC 0 ff
DNC 50/50
DNE 0 ff
DNW 50/50
West 1 ff

best case 6, worst case 4 from a current 18 is a loss of 12-14 in dublin...

fun and games (or am I missing something?)

So.....
 

Mushroom

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Corrigan is not seen anymore as the solution to our problems in holding seats and will be overlooked (imo)
Presumably this is because of her (now severed) links with one of Bertie's closest cronies.
 

meriwether

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interesting times alright. Of course the whole 'ball game' in terms of ff has changed in the last 3 weeks and this must be considered.

In reality(no matter what you're told) its back to basics for ff in the next election. National strategy has been abandoned in favor of a constituency by constituency model, made all the more difficult by a serious lack of local organisation, on the ground.

Its every man for himself really and this andrews story says it all. Without some joined thinking and fast the dl/south area could go from 4 traditionally to zero, with no new credible faces surfacing anytime soon.

Personally, i feel we should run andrews alone in DL along with a local 'sweeper' to get one. South is more complicated really, Hanafin brennan and la hart would seem geographically balanced with the hope of one. Kitt, I believe will indeed retire. Corrigan is not seen anymore as the solution to our problems in holding seats and will be overlooked (imo)

La hart, I like and feel in the long run might run in south west ( in the absence of anyone credible) although people in the area frequently dismiss
this option.
In reality, focus in ff has moved to ensuring seats in 2014 and beyond.

A seat for andrews in dl, whoever 'rises like cream' in south a 'write off' in south west where we'll loose 2 through loss or retirement, with a role for lenihan as a 'rebuilding tsar' in ho. I see at best one in south central with one loss/retirement but can also see none. In central, bertie will retire and we'll get none, we'll loose both in north and are 50/50 to hold one in nw and nc. ne is lost (imo). Mid west depends enrtirely on harneys decision. Andrews will be the real dublin star and will comfortably hold south east.......

So....Dublin looks like this:

DL 1ff
DS 1ff
DSW 0 ff
DMW 0ff
DSE 1 ff
DSC 0 ff
DN 0 ff
DC 0 ff
DNC 50/50
DNE 0 ff
DNW 50/50
West 1 ff

best case 6, worst case 4 from a current 18 is a loss of 12-14 in dublin...

fun and games (or am I missing something?)

So.....
Worst case is zero.

I'm not being pedantic, but the current opinion polls have you on 13%. An actual poll held last week put you on 20% in Donegal, a collapse from 50% in 2007.
If you're on 20% in Donegal, you're on half that in Dublin, if even.
 

drjimryan2

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I accept your point, but! I rekon sense will prevail in dl/south and well hold one in each. I believe Brian and Chris are the only 2 safe/ But a returned Dail with 2 Dublin ff td's is not out of this world - accepted.
 

meriwether

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Presumably this is because of her (now severed) links with one of Bertie's closest cronies.
I was standing in a count hall in 2009 for the locals (and 2 bye-elections) and the fragrant miss Corrigan wafted by, in the middle of a high powered mobile phone conversation. She had her FF cronies with her (old men, the sort to be beguiled by her beauty) and told them in my earshot that 'everything looks like it will be OK' - FF were going to do alright in the election.

They didn't. Either her conversation on the phone was to Dora the explorer, or she was being fed daft info, or she felt that perpetuating the false hope (when the votes were being counted) was of some use.

Either way, her ass is grass. The electorate won't be buying what she will be selling.
 

meriwether

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I accept your point, but! I rekon sense will prevail in dl/south and well hold one in each. I believe Brian and Chris are the only 2 safe/ But a returned Dail with 2 Dublin ff td's is not out of this world - accepted.
I think zero is unrealistic, to be fair.
 

Toland

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Does anyone think FF running two candidates in Dun Laoghaire might split the vote and cause neither to get elected?
IMO neither of them will be elected anyway.

Andrews is probably trying to salvage a little dignity by running where his numbers likely to look less catastrophic.

And perhaps with half an eye on retaking the seat in 2016.
 

Northtipp

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Last days of the roman empire lads. Bad sign when your looking for the live body count.
 


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