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BBC Estimate That Labour Would Win A General Election Under Jeremy Corbyn If It Was Held Today

maxflinn

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The BBC contend that if Labour's performance in last week's elections were mirrored in a general election that Labour would beat the Tories by 1%

BBC projected national vote share (if the results were repeated at a general election): Lab 31%, Con 30%, Lib Dem 15%, UKIP 12%
Key points of 2016 elections: At-a-glance summary

So why all the negative spin on the election results from everybody?

Labour under Corbyn would win a general election today.

No wonder the right-wing is so scared of Corbyn's Labour...
 


farnaby

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The percentages are misleading in the FPTP system. Given the way seats went in the last election it would still be a Conservative victory.
 

rainmaker

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Labour under Corbyn would win a general election today.
No, they really, really wouldn't. Which is why you have heard no one, not even Corbyn himself, claim that.

You have totally misunderstood how it works.
 

Dame_Enda

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The public saw through the 'anti semitism' smear. On the other hand the Tories did badly because of UKIP.
 

toconn

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its not as simple as to say a 1% lead would translate into a general election win due to the first past the post system. That said the fact is that last weeks results were not a disaster for Corbyn or Labour no matter how the media or the Tory wishers try to deem it. Of course Scotland wasnt great but it was always going to take more than 8 months to fix the damage Labour of the past did to itself in Scotland , not to mention the disastrous intervention by Labourite Brown and Darling to lead the establishment fear campaign against the Scot Ind yes camp.
Also it will take more than 8 months for Corbyn to convince the UK public of the left wing policies he is putting forward, the type of policies not seen for generations. He knows that , the Party know it and so from where I stand it's all moving along as they would have seen it. More and more the reputation of Corbyn as a decent principled politician is coming through . It may never be enough to win him a GE , who knows but the shift in UK politics is happening and the establishment are scared hence the media , including the BBC reaction.
 

Levellers

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That's what makes me laugh about the keyboard warriors constantly saying the BBC is full of lefties. They have run a vitriolic campaign since he was elected.
 

rainmaker

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That's what makes me laugh about the keyboard warriors constantly saying the BBC is full of lefties. They have run a vitriolic campaign since he was elected.
Any examples of this vitriol? I mean, if they're running a campaign then I'm sure you must have many examples?

*Edit, as predicted - nothing.
 
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Dame_Enda

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I doubt 31% would get them an overall majority though so it depends what you mean by "winning". Also experience over the years in many countries shows that mid term elections do not usually reflect what will happen in a future GE. For example the Tories swept the local elections after the 1997 GE disaster and wrongly assumed they were on the way back.

On the other hand the electoral boundaries are supposed to have favoured Labour yet the Tories and Lib Dem deal during the last Coalition to fix the problem fell through because of Tory Opposition to Lords reform (by backbenchers not the leadership). Blair won the 2005 election on 36% of the vote.
 
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toconn

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Any examples of this vitriol? I mean, if they're running a campaign then I'm sure you must have many examples?

*Edit, as predicted - nothing.
Come on Rainmaker ! It's clear for anyone to see that the BBC editorial news team have pounced on any opportunity to expose Corbyn to criticism at any stage they can . Yer one Laura Kuenssberg can hardly contain herself from sneering at the very mention of his name. You must have heard the outcry across the UK at what is perceived bias since he became leader. I have out and out Tory voter friends who have said the very same to me.
 

storybud1

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The Tories are sending messages to the BBC that their Royal charter (10 years each time) is up next year and they may consider changes to make the BBC more accountable.

Remember the media got it so wrong on the last election, of course this is a battle between the utter lefty social engineering nutbags in the BBC and reality.

The BBC want 1 in 6 of their presenters/stars to be Gay/disabled/Trans ? Now thats not reality or even close to it. But sure people are turning off in their droves as the liberal fookwits assault meritocracy on every level.

I don't give a fook it the star is gay as long as they are good, I rarely watch BBC or RTE anymore, too much social engineering and telling us what is good for us ?

Fook off you fookwits and go back to doing your job in providing quality TV before the taxpayers just vote you into oblivion.
 

devoutcapitalist

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Incumbent parties normally do badly in local elections plus the turnout is normally quite low as well.

Labour under Corbyn doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of leading Labour to victory in 2020.
 

TheWexfordInn

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The title of the thread looks hilarious in light of the latest opinion poll which puts Labours support at a lower level than was ever reached during Ed Milibands time in charge.
Doubly surprising in view of the point in the electoral cycle when the opposition would normally expect to be doing well.
At this rate the Conservatives will romp home to a clear win even if they don't bother campaigning.

Labour voting intention stands at 25%, the lowest since Gordon Brown was Prime Minister


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/voting-intention-labour-voting-intention-lowest-le/
 

ffc

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The title of the thread looks hilarious in light of the latest opinion poll which puts Labours support at a lower level than was ever reached during Ed Milibands time in charge.
Doubly surprising in view of the point in the electoral cycle when the opposition would normally expect to be doing well.
At this rate the Conservatives will romp home to a clear win even if they don't bother campaigning.





https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09/voting-intention-labour-voting-intention-lowest-le/
The polls reflect a Post Brexit/new PM honeymoon for the Tories. They have gone full anti immigration and are advocating the end of free movement of people, sucking up votes from UKIP and desperate Labour supporters who think Theresa May is going to stop all foreigners coming to the UK.
It won't last as they will either have to implement a disastrous hard Brexit or make a humiliating U-turn.
Brown was getting similar numbers for a few months after he became PM, but the financial crisis blew him away.
Brexit is the tory equivalent.
 

making waves

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Corbyn is being held hostage by the Bliarites running the PLP and the LP HQ. They are running an unrelenting guerrilla campaign against his leadership. Tens of thousands of Corbyn supporters have been booted out of the LP or banned from membership while at the same time the Blairites are welcoming UKIP councillors with open arms.

The mistake Corbyn is making is trying to compromise with the Blairites - they will destroy him and destroy the LP in the process. The only thing that will save him and the LP at this point is the mandatory reselection of all LP MPs - it would bring the crisis to a head and force the Blairites to split from the LP because most of them would be deselected. If this doesn't happen then Corbyn's leadership will go down as a minor pause in the terminal and accelerating decline in the LP.
 

rainmaker

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Corbyn is being held hostage by the Bliarites running the PLP and the LP HQ. They are running an unrelenting guerrilla campaign against his leadership. Tens of thousands of Corbyn supporters have been booted out of the LP or banned from membership while at the same time the Blairites are welcoming UKIP councillors with open arms.

The mistake Corbyn is making is trying to compromise with the Blairites - they will destroy him and destroy the LP in the process. The only thing that will save him and the LP at this point is the mandatory reselection of all LP MPs - it would bring the crisis to a head and force the Blairites to split from the LP because most of them would be deselected. If this doesn't happen then Corbyn's leadership will go down as a minor pause in the terminal and accelerating decline in the LP.
That nonsense wont wash anymore. He won the leadership.

It is a ridiculous excuse for the fact that throughout Brexit, probably the most important & far reaching political event in our lifetime, he has been absolutely invisible.

Inexcusable for the leader of the opposition.
 

rainmaker

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The polls reflect a Post Brexit/new PM honeymoon for the Tories. They have gone full anti immigration and are advocating the end of free movement of people, sucking up votes from UKIP and desperate Labour supporters who think Theresa May is going to stop all foreigners coming to the UK.
None of that explains Labour falling to fourth place behind the Libedems. Think about that. More unpopular than the Libdems. And more unpopular in Scotland than the Tories - in Scotland for goodness sake.
 

blokesbloke

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None of that explains Labour falling to fourth place behind the Libedems. Think about that. More unpopular than the Libdems. And more unpopular in Scotland than the Tories - in Scotland for goodness sake.
Yes - and especially tragic considering Corbyn and his backers were certain they could "win back Scotland" from the SNP.

Instead the Tories are now the real opposition party in Scotland.
 

Clanrickard

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Corbyn is being held hostage by the Bliarites running the PLP and the LP HQ. They are running an unrelenting guerrilla campaign against his leadership. Tens of thousands of Corbyn supporters have been booted out of the LP or banned from membership while at the same time the Blairites are welcoming UKIP councillors with open arms.

The mistake Corbyn is making is trying to compromise with the Blairites - they will destroy him and destroy the LP in the process. The only thing that will save him and the LP at this point is the mandatory reselection of all LP MPs - it would bring the crisis to a head and force the Blairites to split from the LP because most of them would be deselected. If this doesn't happen then Corbyn's leadership will go down as a minor pause in the terminal and accelerating decline in the LP.
This is why the loony left are our equivalent of the trump post truth phenomenon. Any one following British politics knows the reality is the opposite of what you have posted.
 

Cai

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At this stage in the last election cycle Labour were polling over 40%. They lost heavily in the GE.

They're currently around 25%.

That's all anyone needs to know really.
 

making waves

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That nonsense wont wash anymore. He won the leadership.
Yes he won the leadership - but the entire LP structures from HQ to PLP have been and are controlled by the Blairites. Pro-Corbyn constituency labour parties have been shut down, tens of thousands of Corbyn supporters have been banned - you can get expelled from the LP for calling a Blairite 'Blairite' - because the LP HQ makes all the decisions about can and cannot be a LP member.

There is an open civil war in the LP and Corbyn is fighting it with both hands behind his back - the only way he survives is by using his support among the tank and file to remove all the Blairite MPs as LP candidates through mandatory reselection - that would force the Blairites to split from the LP.

It is a ridiculous excuse for the fact that throughout Brexit, probably the most important & far reaching political event in our lifetime, he has been absolutely invisible.
Again Corbyn is being shafted by the Blairites - those MPs in 'Remain' constituencies are mouthing off about needing a new referendum, those in'Brexit' constituencies are engaging in rabid anti-immigrant rhetoric. Stephen Kinnock has been even more rabid anti-immigrant than UKIP.

Corbyn should be running an campaign for a left-wing exit - campaigning for an anti-austerity programme and a rejection of the neo-liberalism of the EU and the rebid little Englander mentality of UKIP and the right of the Tories.

Inexcusable for the leader of the opposition.
He is nominally the leader of the opposition - but he is in a minority of 20-1 within the PLP - every time he opens his mouth in the Commons his own PLP are heckling him.

Now Corbyn is a victim of his own indecisiveness - instead of trying to compromise with and accommodate the Blairites, he would have gone for the jugular. It is not too late - but time is rapidly running out. The Blairites will happily destroy the LP - indeed the LP is in terminal decline if they remain in the LP - Corbyn has to excise Blairism from the LP if it is to survive - time will tell if he is up to the task.
 

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